Nice math kos

The Daily Kos ^ | Nov 3, 2004 | kos

[IrishBrewer]

No wonder these guys can't win, look at how they do math. When they count how many votes Kerry needs to get out of the provisional ballots, they neglect to add those that would have gone to Bush to his total (besides, they somehow dream that they are going to get 85% of the provisionals going to Kerry).

By the way, you need to replace the DOT with a "." or FreeRepublic blocks the dailyKos link. ----------------------------------------

by kos Wed Nov 3rd, 2004 at 13:53:48 GMT

It's not over in Ohio. As this email notes: Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221 If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen.

And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.

If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.

Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.

[elizabetty]

Perhaps they know how many fraudulent votes the turned in?

[So Cal Rocket]

Not to mention that approximately 50% of the provisionals will be declared Null And Void, because they were cast out of precinct or by someone who never registered to vote.

[dirtboy]

What a maroon. He forgets to factor in the percentage of the vote that Bush gets as well. And when do ballots EVER break 85-15 statewide ANYWHERE?

[Right Wing Professor]

What a maroon. He forgets to factor in the percentage of the vote that Bush gets as well. And when do ballots EVER break 85-15 statewide ANYWHERE?

That happens after the magical vote-fairy Tinkerbell appears from behind a ballot box and says 'John Kerry, you shall go to the inaugural ball.'

[Mojave Mark]

I had called the race for Bush back in September. I was way wrong on the number of electoral votes he would get though. I had Bush at 350+ and sKerry with the leftovers. Boy, was I wrong. Well, we still get a happy ending. You know, I was thinking the same thing about the recount of the "provisional" ballots. I thought, "great, let's count those suckers. This will prove once and for all the level of fraud systemic to provisional voting."

[IrishBrewer]

Good point about counting the provisional votes.

Now that Kerry has conceeded, will all of the provisional absentee votes pretty much be ashcanned? I too think that it would be interesting to find out what percentage of them are valid and both those that ARE and are NOT valid, what were the splits.

[kj123]

Beware the funny ballots. Down in Florida, we had an amendment to tax slot machines which the gambling industry backed because it would have made it easier to place slot machines all over the state. The measure was losing until 75,000 absentee ballots showed up from, guess where, Broward County-remember them from 2000. Amazingly enough, 72,000 of the 75,000 were "for" the proposal, which then passed by a whisker. An investigation is under way.

[IrishBrewer]

Wow, 72000/75000 = 96 percent. Something is definitely awry.