Posted on 10/19/2004 5:40:48 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Bobby Jindal (R: LA-1) $977,025; Joe Driscoll (D: PA-15) $832,873; Geoffrey Davis (R: KY-4) $745,546; Lois Murphy (D: PA-6) $674,945; Ted Poe (R: TX-2) $595,033; Patty Letterling (D: MN-6) $552,547; Willie Mount (D: LA-7) $552,547; Goli Ameri (R: OR-1) $522,084; Donald Barbieri (D: WA-5) $504,155; Nancy Naples (R: NY-27) $451,203; Nick Clooney (D: KY-4) $431,757; Michael Fitzpatrick (R: PA-8) $424,067; Diane Farrell (D: CT-4) $422,367; Larry Diedrich (R: SD-1) $419,450; Charles Melancon (D: LA-3) $414,648; Roy Asburn (R: CA-20) $401,458; Tom Gallagher (D: NV-3) $385,277; Craig Romero (R: LA-3) $383,993; John Swallow (R: UT-2) $378,061; Calder Clay III (R: GA-3) $360,574; Tony Miller (D: KY-3) $357,077; Connie Mack IV (R: FL-14) $350,934; Paul Babbit (D: AZ-1) $343,936; William Tauzin (R: LA-3) $336,016; Allyson Schwartz (D: PA-13) $333,614; David Reichert (R: WA-8) $311,265; Matthew Connealy (D: NE-1) $294,596; Louis Gohmert (R: TX-1) $293,546; John Salazar (D: CO-3) $290,394; Lynn Westmoreland (R: GA-8) $289,391; Patsy Keever (D: NC-11) $287,373; Jim Costa (D: CA-20) $278,626; Richard Romero (D: NM-1) $261,584; Brian Hamel (R: ME-2) $261,363; David Boren (D: OK-2) $259,664; Melissa Brown (R: PA-13) $249,296; Charles Boustany (R: LA-3) $224,049; Tim Escobar (R: CA-39) $208,635.
ping
Patty Wetterling in MN-6 has $552 grand available?!
Damn!
She has raised a bundle of money though.
I haven't seen any polling of the MN-6 but I've seen the ads on TV.
Mark Kennedy went negative first. I wonder if he's a little nervous?
I'd hate to see Wetterling as a member of Congress. If its wasn't for the name ID from her family tragedy, Kennedy would be ahead of her by 20-25 points.
MY TWO CENTS:
Bobby Jindal (R: LA-1) $977,025 --- CERTAIN GOP HOLD (WITHOUT RUN-OFF)
Joe Driscoll (D: PA-15) $832,873; CHARLIE DENT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY HOLD TOOMEY'S SEAT FOR THE GOP DESPITE DRISCOLL'S MONEY
Geoffrey Davis (R: KY-4) $745,546; PROBABLE GOP PICK-UP AGAINST NICK CLOONEY
Lois Murphy (D: PA-6) $674,945; WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE A GOP HOLD (JIM GERLACH)
Ted Poe (R: TX-2) $595,033; ALMOST CERTAIN GOP PICK-UP AGAINST REDISTRICTED INCUMBENT LAMPSON
Patty Letterling (D: MN-6) $552,547; CERTAIN GOP HOLD (MARK KENNEDY)
Willie Mount (D: LA-7) $552,547; I THINK REPUBLICAN CHARLES BOUSTANY WILL MAKE THE RUN-OFF AGAINST EITHER MOUNT OR DON CRAVINS AND DEFEAT WHICHEVER ONE MAKES IT
Goli Ameri (R: OR-1) $522,084; GOOD CHANCE OF A GOP PICK-UP AGAINST SCANDAL-TARRED DAVID WU
Donald Barbieri (D: WA-5) $504,155; CATHY MCMORRIS WILL EASILY HOLD THE SEAT FOR THE GOP
Nancy Naples (R: NY-27) $451,203; VERY TOUGH RACE AGAINST DEMOCRAT BRIAN HIGGINS--POSSIBLE DEMOCRAT PICK-UP
Nick Clooney (D: KY-4) $431,757; CLOONEY WILL LOSE TO GEOFFREY DAVIS, AS I STATED ABOVE
Michael Fitzpatrick (R: PA-8) $424,067; ALMOST CERTAIN GOP HOLD AGAINST THIRD-TIER DEMOCRAT GINNY SCHRADER
Diane Farrell (D: CT-4) $422,367; SHE WILL LOSE BIG AGAINST ENTRENCHED RINO CHRIS SHAYS, IN SPITE OF RECENT POLLS SHOWING A CLOSE RACE
Larry Diedrich (R: SD-1) $419,450; NOT LOOKING GOOD IN THE POLLS RIGHT NOW AGAINST STEPHANIE HERSETH, BUT IT SHOULD GO DOWN TO THE WIRE JUST LIKE IN THE SPECIAL ELECTION A FEW MONTHS AGO
Charles Melancon (D: LA-3) $414,648; WILL PROBABLY LOSE TO BILLY TAUZIN III; MAY NOT EVEN MAKE THE RUN-OFF
Roy Ashburn (R: CA-20) $401,458; WILL PROBABLY FALL SHORT AGAINST JIM COSTA IN DEMOCRAT OPEN SEAT
Tom Gallagher (D: NV-3) $385,277; JON PORTER SHOULD WIN COMFORTABLY
Craig Romero (R: LA-3) $383,993; ROMERO MIGHT BEAT THE OTHER DEMOCRATS AND MAKE THE RUN-OFF AGAINST BILLY TAUZIN III, BUT TAUZIN WILL PROBABLY WIN ON NAME ID IN HIS DADDY'S HOUSE SEAT
John Swallow (R: UT-2) $378,061; HE LOST BY ONLY 1% TO jIM MATHESON IN 2002, BUT IS WAY BEHIND IN THE POLLS RIGHT NOW; I THINK IT WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE ON ELECTION DAY, BUT MATHESON IS FAVORED TO HOLD THE SEAT FOR THE DEMOCRATS
Calder Clay III (R: GA-3) $360,574; GOOD CHANCE OF BEATING DEMOCRAT JIM MARSHALL FOR GOP PICK-UP
Tony Miller (D: KY-3) $357,077; WAS SEEN AS STRONG CHALLENGER TO ANNE NORTHUP IN DEMOCRAT-LEANING SEAT, BUT IT APPEARS NORTHUP WILL WIN YET AGAIN
Connie Mack IV (R: FL-14) $350,934; CERTAIN GOP HOLD
Paul Babbit (D: AZ-1) $343,936; POSSIBLE DEM PICK-UP, BUT REPUBLICAN RICK RENZI IS A SLIGHT FAVORITE
William Tauzin (R: LA-3) $336,016; TAUZIN WILL HOLD HIS DADDY'S HOUSE SEAT (SEE MELANCON AND ROMERO ABOVE)
Allyson Schwartz (D: PA-13) $333,614; PROBABLE DEMOCRAT HOLD AGAINST MELISSA BROWN
David Reichert (R: WA-8) $311,265; PROBABLE GOP HOLD AGAINST CBS RADIO ANALYST DAVE ROSS
Matthew Connealy (D: NE-1) $294,596; JEFF FORTENBERRY WILL KEEP SEAT IN GOP HANDS
Louis Gohmert (R: TX-1) $293,546; PROBABLY GOP PICK-UP AGAINST REDISTRICTED DEMOCRAT MAX SANDLIN
John Salazar (D: CO-3) $290,394; WILL GO DOWN TO THE WIRE AGAINST GREG WALCHER; POSSIBLE DEM PICK-UP
Lynn Westmoreland (R: GA-8) $289,391; CERTAIN GOP HOLD
Patsy Keever (D: NC-11) $287,373; REPUBLICAN CHARLES TAYLOR WILL WIN REELECTION ONCE AGAIN IN VERY CONSERVATIVE DISTRICT
Jim Costa (D: CA-20) $278,626; PROBABLE DEMOCRAT HOLD (SEE ASHBURN ABOVE)
Richard Romero (D: NM-1) $261,584; ROMERO IS POLLING WELL IN HIS REMATCH AGAINST PERENIALLY VULNERABLE HEATHER WILSON IN SWING DISTRICT, BUT I THINK WILSON WILL HOLD THE SEAT FOR THE GOP
Brian Hamel (R: ME-2) $261,363; BUSH WILL PROBABLY CARRY THE 2ND CD, BUT I DON'T THINK HAMEL WILL DEFEAT CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRAT MIKE MICHAUD
David Boren (D: OK-2) $259,664; BUSH WILL CERTAINLY CARRY BRAD CARSON'S DISTRICT, BUT SENATOR BOREN'S SON WILL DEFINITELY HOLD IT FOR THE DEMOCRATS
Melissa Brown (R: PA-13) $249,296; WILL PROBABLY FALL SHORT ONCE AGAIN, AS SHE DID AGAINST HOEFFEL (SEE ALLYSON SCHWARTZ ABOVE)
Charles Boustany (R: LA-3) $224,049; EXCELLENT CHANCE OF WINNING IN THE DECEMBER RUN-OFF (SEE WILLIE MOUNT ABOVE)
Tim Escobar (R: CA-39) $208,635. LONGSHOT BID IN HISPANIC MAJORITY DISTRICT, BUT LINDA SANCHEZ ONLY GOT 55% IN 2002 AND ESCOBAR COULD WIN IF BUSH GETS STRONG SUPPORT FROM HISPANICS
Your two cents worth went a long way.
Bill
You are a too optimistic with your analysis for the GOP, but in all cases I agree with your general view. The most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation is the Buffalo district, with the Burns seat in Georgia next. Northrup has bounced up in the polls, and in general, the Dem challengers are fading against the GOP. But the Dems are still favored to pick up the open Western Mountain seat being vacated by McInnes in Colorado. Outside of Texas, I don't see any Dem incumbents losing that I can think of. I would be shocked if Wu loses in Oregon. Can you elaborate on you mention of scandal, and what the polls show?
Oh "date rape" 28 years ago I see from the internet. That isn't going anywhere. Wu is safe.
Why is Bobby Jindal sucking up all that $$$ when it could actually make a difference in a race with a Democrat opponent?
We'll have to wait and see if Wu is as "safe" as you claim. He sits in a swing district whose suburban majority swung to the Democrats during the Clinton-Gore years (as did suburban voters just about everywhere other than in Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and the South) but which might swing a bit back to the GOP because of the War on Terror, so Goli Ameri had a shot even before the report of Wu's sexual assault surfaced (and Wu admitted that it was true). Wu needs big margins from female voters in order to win, and it remains to be seen whether he will be able to pull it off this time, with all the bad publicity and a challenge from a pro-choice Republican woman.
"The most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation is the Buffalo district, with the Burns seat in Georgia next."
I think Jindal needs to spread the wealth a little. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy, and can't wait to see him in Congress, but I mean, if things go badly for him, he'll only get 58% of the vote.
It looks like there are a lot of people on this list that need it more then him.
Ed Herman has $12,601 in cash on hand.
John Barrow has spent most of his $1.5 million campaign treasury. He has $168,363 in cash on hand.
Then Ed could use some help.
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