Posted on 04/09/2004 11:41:43 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan
I've seen the senate races heating up, but not nearly as much on the house seats. I'm mostly using information from DC POLITICAL REPORT and POLITICS1.
STATES
DISTRICT 1 (Flagstaff) - Rick Renzi(R) won in 02 with 49.2% over George Cordova(45.6%). He's now facing former Flagstaff mayor and Conconio County Supervisor Paul Babbitt(Bruce Babbitt's Brother?) Conconio had 40816 voters in 02, and Gore won it 50-43 with Nader getting 6%. I'm not familiar with the other counties in this district, but I expect a very close race here based on 02 numbers alone.
DISTRICT 3 - Doug Ose retired here, and the race is between former AG Dan Lungren(R) and Dem Gabe Castillo. It is an open seat, but Ose won with 62% last time.
DISTRICT 18 (Modesto)- Dennis Cardoza(D) won with 51% last time over Dick Monteith(43%). That was with the Gary Condit fallout. Likely dem, but this is his first defense. Charles F. Pringle, a contractor, is his republican opponent. I'm unfamiliar with him.
DISTRICT 20 - Cal Dooley(D) is retiring leaving this seat open. Dooley won his last race with 63.7%, but he had a scare in 2000 (52%). The democrat is Jim Costa, a former state senator. The republican is State Senator Roy Ashburn.
DISTRICT 3 (West and South Colorado) - Scott McInnis (who won big here) is retiring. There are a TON of people running here. On the democrat side, there is State Rep John Salazar(Ken's brother I think), Grand Junction mayor Jim Spehar, cook Jim Fritz, former sec fo state candidate Anthony Martinez, and car salesman Randy Fricke. On the GOP side, State Rep Matt Smith, State Rep Gregg Rippy, Pueblo County Sheriff Dan Corsentino, Attorney Doug Sitter, Army Veteran Jerry Eller, and Realitor Delina DiSanto.
The District is large and covers the Western part of the state, as well as the Southern part of the state. Most of the smaller Gore counties are in this district Costilla(64%, but only 1643 voters), Pitkun(53%, with 10% to Nader - 7792 voters), San Miguel(49% with 17% to Nader - 3248 voters), Pueblo(54% - 53882 voters), Las Animas(53% - 6174 voters), Saguache(48%, 2502 voters), Huerfano(48%, 3135 voters). Almost all of them are in the Southern end outside of Pitkun(ASPEN). I suspect most of these are minority areas. Mesa is the GOP counterweight to Pueblo (63% - 50948 votes). Montrose(65% - 14191) is also key, as is Delta(66% - 12630). The rest are real small counties, all for Bush and most of those over 60%.
DISTRICT 7 (Denver Burbs) - Bob Beauprez(R) won with 47.31% in a squeaker in 02 and has a tough defense. He's facing Jefferson County St Attorney Dave Thomas. The district is suburban Denver and covers parts of Jefferson, Adams and Arapahoe counties. Registrations are even here, and I'm not sure who won this in 02. I'd guess Gore if I had to since Gore won Adams, and the parts of Araphahoe and Jefferson(where Bush won) are next to Denver city.
On the GOP side, Bill McCollum is trying again. Cabinent member Mel Martinez is also running, as is House Speaker Johnny Byrd and St Senator Daniel Webster. Bob Smith from New Hampshire is trying again. Judicial Watch's Larry Klayman is trying and recently wasted his money asking me for money. Other Republicans running are Veteran Sonya March, consultant Gwyn McClellan, and software CEO Doug Gallagher.
This one I think is up for grabs and three key factors are going to be organization, name recognition across the state, and "primary effect". If a primary gets nasty, this could be fun. I hope Peter Deutsch is the nominee for the dems.
DISTRICT 5 (Gainsville area) - Ginny Brown-Waite won a squeaker against Dem incumbent Karen Thurman with 47.9%. Will any strong dems try here? The only dems so far are former indy Brian Moore, Teacher Rick Penberthy, and Critical Care Nurse John Russell. Politics1 lists Robert Whittel as well. This looks like a fairly easy ride to me for a Gainsville area district.
DISTRICT 14 - Porter Goss is retiring. He was unopposed in 02, and won with 85% before that. I suspect the primary is the big race here. The only dems are a businessman (Robert Neeld) and an author(Frederick Ramen). The GOP has Former State Rep Connie Mack IV(son of former senator), State Rep Carole Green, Lee County Commissioner Andy Coy, Police Officer Barry Futch, Cardiologist Frank Schwerin, and Ex Ocean Ridge Mayor John shudlick.
DISTRICT 20 - Peter Deutsch isn't running here. GOOD!
On the GOP side, Congressmen Mac Collins and and Johnny Isakson are facing off. Former CEO Herman Cain is the favorite of a lot of people on this site and I saw some stickers for him at CPAC. Mediator Al Bartnell is the other republican running.
DISTRICT 3 - Jim Marshall (D) won with 50.5% last time (despite a gerrymander) against Former Bibb County Commissioner Calder Clay(R) and it looks like there will be a rematch.
DISTRICT 4 - Solid Democrat and McKinney's old spot, but it will be an interesting primary. McKinney wants her job back and is facing State Senator Nadine Thomas, and Atlanta City Council President Cathy Woolard. The GOP is running Raymond Davis, a minister.
DISTRICT 6 - Isakson's old spot and he had 79% here. No democrats have announced. On the GOP Side, so far we have State Senators Tom Price, Chuck Clay, and Robert Lamutt facing each other. State Rep Robert Hines is running as well, as software engineer Chris Chatwood.
DISTRICT 8 - Mac Collins old spot and he had 78% here. The only dem announced is businesswoman Sylvia Delamar. On the GOP side, State Senator Mike Crofts and State house minority leader Lynn Westmoreland are running. Former gubenatorial aide Dylan Glenn is running as well(Ran against Sanford Bishop before I believe). Teacher Tom Mills is running as well.
DISTRICT 11 - Phil Gingrey (R) won here with 51.6% in an open seat against Roger Kahn. This was Bob Barr's old seat. He has to face Polk County Magistrate Rick Crawford this time. I think this was a gerrymander backfire from 02.
DISTRICT 12 - Max Burns (R) won a tough race with 55% in a Gerrymandered district against Champ Walker(D). The dems have four people running for a shot against him. Former State Senator Doug Haines, Athens-Clarke County commissioner John Barrow, Attorney Tony Center, and Lobbyist Caine Cortellino.
DISTRICT 7 (Indianapolis) - Julia Carson(D) won with 53% last time over Brose McVey. She has a primary against Bob Hildalgo. The GOP primary has Bob Croddy and ex-libertarian Andy Horning.
DISTRICT 8 (West and SW Indiana) - John Hostettler(R) always finds a way to win close and he did again in 02 with 51.3% The dems running are basketball recruiter and Klinton official Jon Jennings and Ex Reform Party member Bill Pearman.
District 9 (SE Indiana) - Baron Hill(D) wins close races like Hostettler does. He won with 51.2% last time against Mike Sodrel who wants a rematch. Hill has a primary with Lee Terry once again as well.
DISTRICT 3 - Leonard Boswell (D) had a tougher than normal fight (53.4%) in 02, against Stan Thompson. They are rematching.
DISTRICT 3 (Louisville) - Anne Northrup (R) keeps surviving her Louisville based district. Last time with 51.6% against Jack Conway. This time she will be facing Jefferson County Circuit Court Clerk Tony Miller or Burrell Farnsley.
DISTRICT 6 - Ken Lucas(D) is retiring and had only 51% last time. The dems have united around George Clooney's dad Nick Clooney who has high name recognition. The GOP has a primary with Geoff Davis who almost won in 02, Attorney Kevin Murphy, and Chiropractor John Kelly King.
District 7 - Ben Chandler(D) won here with 55% in a Special Election which usually has low turnout. This could be a sleeper if it is a good GOP year. A State Senator, Tom Buford, is taking a shot so it tells me this can be winnable. Businessman Don Swarthout and Attorney Bryan Coffman are running.
DISTRICT 1 - Vitter(R)'s old seat and I think this is a solid GOP seat. Michael Armato is running again for the dems. On the GOP side, Governor candidate Bobby Jindal, State rep Steve Scalise, and State Senator Tom Schedler are running.
DISTRICT 3 - Billy Tauzin's old seat. He's retiring. Billy Tauzin III and Craig Romero are GOP'ers running. The dems running are State Senator Reggie Dupre, State rep Jack Smith, Chamber of Commerce official Charmaine Caccioppi, and former state rep and Sugar exec Charlie Melancon. The Runoff will make this interesting.
DISTRICT 5 - Rodney Alexander(D) won here on a runoff and has to defend his spot. John Cooksey (R)(according to Politics 1) wants to make a comeback.
DISTRICT 7 - Chris John(D) is retiring and opens this seat up. Dems running are State Senator Don Cravins, State Senator Willie Mount, and Former St. Senator Ned Doucet. GOP'ers are Surgeon Charles Boustany Jr and Professor David Thibodaux. 3 senators? That could make an interesting runoff.
DISTRICT 3 - Dick Gephardt's gone! WOO HOO!. It's a dem district though with redistricting, but open seats can be a fight. The GOP'ers running are Bill Federer(gave Gep a scare before) and Joan McGivney(former city councilwoman). The dems have a massive primary with 02 Candidate Michael Bram, Michael State Rep Russ Carnahan(I'm so damn sick of that family), Gay Rights Activist Mike Evans, St louis Circuit Clerk Mariano Favazza, Former State Rep Joan Barry, former state rep Jo Ann Karll, Professor Jeff Smith, State Senator Steve Stoll, Law School Dean Mark Smith, and ex White House Intern Corey Mohn.
District 5 - Karen McCarthy is retiring opening up this Kansas City district. The dem primary is most likely the election, but open seats are always interesting to watch. The dems are running former KC mayor Emmannuel Cleaver, former City councilman Dan Cofran, and CFR and State Dept guy Jamie Metzl. The GOP is running Grandview Alderman Steve Dennis, Clay Chastain, Joyce Lea, Jeanne Patterson, and Annalisa Zapien-Pina.
DISTRICT 5 - Open seat. Burr's old one. The dems are running Computer consultant David E Crawford, Salesman Andrew Winfrey, and Surry County Commissioner Jim Harrell Jr. The GOP has a massive primary here. Winston Salem City Councilman Vernon Robinson is running and was at CPAC this year. St Sen Virginia Foxx, former st rep Ed Powell, Ex-Wilkes County Commissioner Joe Byrd, Nathan Tabor, Ed Broyhill, Jay Helvey, and David Vanhoy are also running.
DISTRICT 8 - Robin Hayes(R) with redistricting has a tougher district. He won in 02 though with 53.6%. Politics 1 has listed Bill Alexander, Billy Richardson, and Wayne Troutman as possible candidates.
DISTRICT 10 - Cass Ballenger(R) is retiring. Electrical contractor John Cole is running for the dems. On the GOP side, St Rep Patrick McHenry, Catawba County Sheriff David Huffman, Ex-Cable Company President Sandy Lyons, and Textile Company CEO George Meretz are all running.
DISTRICT 11 - That's Freeper John Armor's race.
DISTRICT 2 - Brad Carson's old district. Democrat leaning, but Coburn won it. St Rep Dan Boren(David's son) is running for the dems are, former st rep Lloyd Fields and former DA Kalyn Free. Wayland Smalley, a Racehorse Breeder is running for the GOP.
DISTRICT 4 - Tom Cole(R) won with 53.8%, but DC Report says that Barry Switzer might(or may not) run for the dems.
DISTRICT 6 - Jim Gerlach(R) got 51.6% in his first race against Danny Wofford(related to Harris?). He's facing Attorney Lois Murphy this time around.
DISTRICT 13 - Joe Hoeffel had a scare here in 00 against Melissa Brown in a redistricted race combined with Borski's district. He's running for Senate. The dems are running Handgun Control's(they wanted her against Santorum) hero state senator Allyson Schwartz and Ex Phily Deputy Mayor Joe Torsella. Melissa Brown wants another shot. The GOP is also running State Senator Ellen Braun and Al Taubenberger.
DISTRICT 15 - Pat Toomey(R) is running for Senate. The dems are running Businessman Joe Driscoll and attorney Rick Orloski. The GOP is running State Senator Charlie Dent, Lehigh County Commissioner Joe Pascuzzo, and attorney Brian O'Neill.
DISTRICT 17 - Tim Holden(D) won with 51.4% over George Gekas in a dual incumbents race. From what I remember, it's a GOP leaning district, but Holden outworked Gekas. The GOP has a 6 way primary including Attorney Scott Paterno(Joe's son), Teacher and former College Football Star Ron Hostetler, Retired USAF General Bill Lynch, Accounting Consultant Frank Ryan, Realtor Sue Helm, and former Deputy AG Mark Stewart.
DISTRICT 4 - Jim DeMint(R) is running for Senate opening this up. The Dems are running Police Officer Andrew Wittman and Funeral Director Brandon Brown. The GOP is running Ex Congressman Bob Inglis, former state rep Carole Wells, and retired contractor Jack Adams.
AT Large District - Stephanie Herseth is a strong dem who got 45% against a governor. Larry Diedrich is a State Senator and is running here for the GOP. What's interesting here is that there are two races. June 1 and also November. What's also interesting is if high turnout will affect this in November.
DISTRICT 1 - Max Sandlin(D) has a real fight. He won his old district with 56.2%. He takes on 02 Nominee John Graves or District Judge Louie Gohmert.
DISTRICT 2 - Jim Turner(D) is retiring. Congresscritter Nick Lampson(D) is running here. He's facing District Judge Ted Poe. Redistricting hurts the rats here too.
DISTRICT 4 - Ralph Hall (Now R) Switched parties, faces Jim Nickerson(D).
DISTRICT 9 - Chris Bell(D) was ousted in the dem primary by Justice of the Peace Al Green. The GOP is running Attorney Arlette Molina.
DISTRICT 10 - Lloyd Doggett(D) moved to 25th. No democrat running. GOP is running Ben Streusand and Mike McCaul.
DISTRICT 11 - Chet Edwards(D) moved to 17th. Dem running is teacher Wayne Raasch. The GOP is running businessman Mike Conaway.
DISTRICT 17 - Chet Edwards(D) survived his last race with 51.5%. He's facing either Ex Waco School Board President Dot Snyder or State Rep Arlene Wohlgemuth. Hopefully Edwards finally gets the boot.
DISTRICT 19 - Dual Incumbents. Charlie Stenholm(D) against Randy Neugebauer(R). Stenholm survived last time with 51.3%, while Neugebauger won his first term with 50.3% in a runoff(Against another republican).
DISTRICT 23 - Henry Bonilla (R) survived last time with 51.5%. Redistricting helped him immensely. He's facing professor Joe P. Sullivan.
DISTRICT 24 - Martin Frost(D) moved to the 32nd district. The Dems are running ex GREEN PARTY candidate Gary Page. The GOP is running State Rep Kenny Marchant.
DISTRICT 28 - Barring any recount suprises and court cases, Incumbent Ciro Rodriguez was given the heave ho in the primary by Henry Cueller, who was Bonilla's opponent in 02. GOP candidates are Attorney and Banker Francisco "Quico" Canseco and Attorney and Army Vet Jim Hopson. If bad feelings abound from the primary, this could be interesting.
DISTRICT 32 - Dual Incumbents and a heavyweight bout between Martin Frost(D) and Pete Sessions(R). Hopefully, this will be the end of Frost's days in Washington. Doggett and Frost need to go.
DISTRICT 2 - Rick Larsen (D) survived with 50.1% last time against Norma Smith. He'll face Island County Auditor Suzanne Sinclair or Businessman Glenn Coggeshell III.
DISTRICT 5 - George Nethercutt(R) is running for Senate. The dems are running businessmen Don Barbieri and ex-republican Craig Sullivan. The GOP are running State Rep Cathy McMorris, former state rep Todd Mielke, State Senate Majority Floor leader Larry Sheahan, and attorney Shaun Cross.
DISTRICT 8 - Jennifer Dunn(R) is retiring. The dems are running Internet Executive Alex Alben, and frequent candidate Heidi Behrens-Benedict. The GOP is running King County Sheriff Dave Reichert, State Senator Luke Esser, Bellevue City Councilman Conrad Lee, and Ex US-Attorney Diane Tebelius.
DISTRICT 4 - Jerry Kleczka (D) is retiring. Dem primary is likely winner. The dems running are State Senators Tim Carpenter and Gwen Moore, State rep Shirley Krug, and attorney Matt Flynn. The GOP is running former HHS regional director Corey Hoze who seems to be running a strong campaign.
You said it! I just can't figure out why so many people think that Edwards will win this thing. 1-The district is very Conservative, 2-Very little of Cheat's old district is included in this new one, 3-Arlene is an attractive candidate, and 4-TEXAS AGGIES DON'T LIKE LIBERALS, WHOOP!!!
Arlene will win by double digits.
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