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I cannot bet on Toomey to win. Santorum won in 2000 against a TV reporter, pro-life Eastern Pennsylvania Democrat Ron Klink. He won narrowly, 50-47 against poorly funded Klink, but speculation is that Klink had trouble raising money from Philly area Democrats because of his pro life stance and as a result was underfunded enormously. Can't bet on that with Hoeful though. He's hardcore pro-abortion and that issue itself along with gun control could hold down Toomey's percentages in the Philly suburbs and Harrisburg which would otherwise go to Specter. Basically, i like Toomey a lot and idealogically agree with him, dislike Specter and hold strong supsicions on how he will chair the Judiciary. But a lot is at stake here, there are several GOP seats open in Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma. Do we really need a Linoln Chafee moment again guys? (50+50, Chafee switches to (I). So i pretty much see it as a big risk. We need to increase our margins as much as we can and Toomey is too big a risk for that unfortunately. Specter is recognized statewide for 20 years and won't be as bad as would a narrow Democratic controlled Senate or a thin Republican one. That would basically kill Bush's second term if he got one. So i think Rove and the guys are right on this one politically speaking, and that is my case for Specter !

I think Hoeffel has a better chance of beating Specter than he would of beating Toomey. Specter is incapable of getting votes from blue-collar Democrats from outside the Philly metro area, since they are generally pro-life, pro-gun and pro-defense and Specter is none of those things. Toomey, on the other hand, has been getting those votes for year in his Lehigh Valley congressional district. And against Hoeffel, who represents Montco and NE Philly, Specter cannot count on getting his usual large margins in the Philly metro area to overcome getting blown out in the rest of the state. My predictions would be Hoeffel beating Specter 50%-48% if Specter wins the GOP primary, but Toomey beating Hoeffel 52%-46% (with Hoeffel's support for abortion and gun control costing him hundreds of thousands of traditionally Democrat votes) if Toomey defeats Specter in the primary.

Another important point is that if Specter is the GOP nominee, turnout will not be as strong among conservatives as if Toomey is the nominee, which could swing the state to Kerry in the presidential race (the RINOs that will turn out en masse to vote for Specter could give Kerry his margin of victory over President Bush). That's yet another reason to support Toomey in the primary.

And, oh yeah, Toomey is a real Republican, while Specter merely plays one on TV every six years.

I think this one is a no-brainer. GO, PAT, GO!

"We need to increase our margins as much as we can and Toomey is too big a risk for that unfortunately."

Sorry, but I must disagree.

This is the thinking that has brought us 24 years of Arlen Specter. What we need are principled conservatives and Toomey is the real deal. It's time for the GOP to stand for the values that they proclaim and not accept any more Specters.

I've been following Pat since a year before he announced. I have watched as people respond to his call to give Republican values a chance. I've seen him rise in the polls as Specter spends millions to trash him. I've been to 3 Toomey events in the past week and worked a booth for him at a gun show. I hear people thrill to the fact that they have someone that they can proudly vote for (and against Arlen.) Other than some politically intimidated party operatives, I haven't found anyone who even says that they will vote for Arlen.

This is a once in a lifetime chance for Republicans to govern. We've squandered a large portion of this opportunity by having Specter, Snowe, Jeffords and Chaffee block our every effort. It's been 70 years since we've had the reins of elected government. If we don't use them now and properly, we'll never again in our lifetimes, have that opportunity.

Go Pat, Go.