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"We need to increase our margins as much as we can and Toomey is too big a risk for that unfortunately."

Sorry, but I must disagree.

This is the thinking that has brought us 24 years of Arlen Specter. What we need are principled conservatives and Toomey is the real deal. It's time for the GOP to stand for the values that they proclaim and not accept any more Specters.

I've been following Pat since a year before he announced. I have watched as people respond to his call to give Republican values a chance. I've seen him rise in the polls as Specter spends millions to trash him. I've been to 3 Toomey events in the past week and worked a booth for him at a gun show. I hear people thrill to the fact that they have someone that they can proudly vote for (and against Arlen.) Other than some politically intimidated party operatives, I haven't found anyone who even says that they will vote for Arlen.

This is a once in a lifetime chance for Republicans to govern. We've squandered a large portion of this opportunity by having Specter, Snowe, Jeffords and Chaffee block our every effort. It's been 70 years since we've had the reins of elected government. If we don't use them now and properly, we'll never again in our lifetimes, have that opportunity.

Go Pat, Go.

I would really like to agree with that line of thinking, that pure conservatives can win, and i really like Toomey. But i've been looking at the Pennsylvania's political scene lately tracing back thru 1988 and done the math. Some important developments have taken place since then. 1) Eastern Pennyslvania has gotten more liberal. George Bush won PA in 1988 50-48, the son lost it 47-50. The strong margins that typically went towards the Republicans in the 80's has shrunk significantly. Many of the Eastern PA suburbs cast strong margins for the GOP 16 years ago has now either been trending towards the Dems or reliably Democratic. It's very much like what has happened in NJ, strongly Republican in '88, now strongly Democrat in 2000's. Republicans cannot win without those margins. George W. Bush lost precisely because he couldnt match his fathers margins in the crucial Eastern areas in 1988. Now to be fair, W. did better than his dad in Western PA, but his margins there were just not high enough to offset his losses in Eastern PA. This is exactly the reason why Casey lost to Rendell, and Fisher lost to Rendell. Rendell picked up these votes of moderate Republicans. Specter will do the same thing.

I wish PA was more conservative, but it isnt and is getting less so. Santorum won largely because he was better known, better financed, and his oppenent had the same view on human life that he did. Between the two candidates, Moderate Republicans are more inclined to vote for a Socially conservative Republican than a Socially conservative/fiscally liberal Democrat.

So, i really cannot envision a scenario where Toomey would pull this off. You may say that he will do well in Western PA, but Western PA is complicated. Yes, a voter there will tell you that they are very pro-life, but they will ALSO tell you that they are very Democratic. I'm talking New Deal FDR. This has been a puzzle for political consultants of both parties. Toomey has done quite well as a conservative in his district, but he would need to do exceptionally well in the rest of Western PA to offset his losses in the East. Can Toomey do it ? Can he pick up the votes of socially conservative but fiscally liberal New Deal
Dems being a staunch government shrinking Republican ? That is the dillema !

I really think that this race should be reserved for a time when Republicans control the Senate with 54-55 seats, i would be all for Toomey then. But this isn't the time unfortunately.