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I think Hoeffel has a better chance of beating Specter than he would of beating Toomey. Specter is incapable of getting votes from blue-collar Democrats from outside the Philly metro area, since they are generally pro-life, pro-gun and pro-defense and Specter is none of those things. Toomey, on the other hand, has been getting those votes for year in his Lehigh Valley congressional district. And against Hoeffel, who represents Montco and NE Philly, Specter cannot count on getting his usual large margins in the Philly metro area to overcome getting blown out in the rest of the state. My predictions would be Hoeffel beating Specter 50%-48% if Specter wins the GOP primary, but Toomey beating Hoeffel 52%-46% (with Hoeffel's support for abortion and gun control costing him hundreds of thousands of traditionally Democrat votes) if Toomey defeats Specter in the primary.

Another important point is that if Specter is the GOP nominee, turnout will not be as strong among conservatives as if Toomey is the nominee, which could swing the state to Kerry in the presidential race (the RINOs that will turn out en masse to vote for Specter could give Kerry his margin of victory over President Bush). That's yet another reason to support Toomey in the primary.

And, oh yeah, Toomey is a real Republican, while Specter merely plays one on TV every six years.

I think this one is a no-brainer. GO, PAT, GO!

I agree. I'm the most pragmatic conservative I know, I'm more then willing to take a half loaf, but Specter isn't even a half loaf, and I think Toomey can win this. If Toomey does lose, it will be because Santorum refused to stay out of this. I usually like Santorum, and I understand wanting to be pragmatic, but he should have just stayed out of this contest.

And in this case, I agree, Toomey has at least as good of a shot at holding the seat as Specter. I wouldn't count on conservatives to vote for Specter again, not this time, and what we REALLY don't need in PA is conservatives sitting on their hands. Even more important then the Senate is Bush winning reelection.