What really happened in Iowa

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[bobjam]

The dust is beginning to settle, and, after all the hype, after all the pundit analysis, after all the expert opinions, basic politics won out. Most people think of the Iowa Caucus in terms of a primary election. It is not. In Iowa, Democratic voters in each precinct gather in a church, school, library, or some other convenient place to elect delegates to the state convention. That convention elects delegates to the national convention, which elects a nominee. The difference is how each caucus election is carried out. When the voters assemble, they gather into groups based on whom they support. Party workers then assign delegates based on the size of the groups. Usually, each precinct only has two or three delegates, so the third and fourth biggest groups are out of luck.

In each caucus, there is time for voters to switch groups. In most cauci, the Kerry group was the largest, followed by Dean, Edwards and Gephart. The media polls reflected this. Now Edwards and Gephart are the candidates from the left (so they portray themselves) and Dean and Kerry are from the far left. Faced with losing all the marbles, the Gephart supporters joined the Edwards group and passed the Dean group in numbers, and possibly even the Kerry group as well. Now the Dean supporters found themselves in third place, and in many instances, their fellow far left candidate in second. Depending on the size of the Edwards/Gephart group, it might get both delegates, and the far left crowd would get none. Thus, the Dean people bolted for the Kerry group and re-established control of first place of the far left crowd.

When the numbers were called in, in most cauci, the Kerry/Dean group was the largest with the Edwards/Gephart group close behind. It is important to note that the far left (Dean and Kerry) ended up with 56% of the delegates and the left (Edwards and Gephart) ended up with 43%. That's a 13 point margin of victory for the far left in Iowa.