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000 WTNT44 KNHC 082023 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

The strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean was a mess of conflicting signals today. On one side, the satellite appearance was that of a significant tropical storm, with satellite intensity estimates as high as 45 knots from Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch. On the other side, the hurricane hunter aircraft, which made several passes through the apparent center and found no closed circulation. Just as the plane was leaving the area at 18Z it found 20-knot southwesterly winds, indicating a poorly-defined circulation, and pressures of 1006-1007 millibars. Based on this, the wave has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Claudette. The 45-knot initial intensity is based on a 57 knot flight-level wind measured by the aircraft.

The initial motion is a very rapid 280/25. Claudette is south of a strong subtropical ridge and should continue in a fast east to east-southeast flow for another 24 hours or so. After that, the storm will approach a weakness in the ridge, which will weaken further after 48 hours as a strong deep-layer trough develops over the eastern United States. National Hurricane Center track guidance responds to this by forecasting a rapid west-northwestward motion for 48 hours, followed by deceleration and a more northwesterly track. One possibility to be watched is that the trough could turn Claudette more northward than forecast. However, current trends suggest that Claudette will be west of the trough axis in 72-96 hours, which would produce a slower and more westward motion.

Claudette currently shows good anticyclonic outflow in all directions, and as long as it does not run under the upper-level low to the west, it should continue to strengthen. Large-scale models suggest that the upper-level winds should remain favorable, so the intensity forecast calls for strengthening until the center reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. After some weakening over land, the system should re-intensify over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

While the wind radii are small, other near-gale winds continue over the northern and northeastern Caribbean away from Claudette. Please consult forecasts from the Tropical Prediction Center and the Weather Forecast Office, San Juan, Puerto Rico for additional information.

Forecaster Beven

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 15.0N 71.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.8N 74.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 16.9N 79.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 18.0N 82.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 19.3N 86.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W 50 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 13/1800Z 24.0N 94.5W 55 KT

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

Strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea spawns Tropical Storm Claudette, the third named storm of the season

At 5 PM EDT, 2100 UTC, the government of Jamaica has issued a tropical storm warning for Jamaica.

At 5 PM EDT, 2100 UTC, the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a tropical storm watch for the Cayman Islands.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the strong tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea has developed a closed circulation and has become a tropical storm.

At 5 PM EDT, 2100Z, the poorly defined center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.0 north, longitude 71.3 west, or about 415 miles, 670 km, east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 29 miles per hour, 46 kilometers per hour, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This motion could bring the center of Claudette near Jamaica on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 miles per hour, 85 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, 110 km to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 1006 millibars, 29.71 inches of mercury.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves may occur along the south coast of Jamaica.

Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches may occur along the path of Claudette.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position: 15.0 °N, 71.3 °W. Movement toward, west near 29 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 50 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT44 KNHC 090242
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

Claudette has an outstanding satellite presentation with deep convection near the center, excellent outflow, and well-defined banding features. The reconnaissance plane barely closed off a small circulation. However, the minimum pressure dropped to 1000 millibars with a peak wind of 72 knots at 1500 feet suggesting that Claudette has become better organized. Initial intensity is increased 55 knots. The upper-low ahead of Claudette, which could cause some shear, is forecast to move westward and weaken leaving a favorable upper-level environment in northwestern Caribbean. In addition, the upper oceanic heat content in the northwestern western Caribbean is high. Therefore, Claudette is forecast to strengthen and is expected to reach the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane.

Claudette is moving westward about 22 knots, embedded within a deep easterly mean flow associated with a strong ridge to the north. In the short term, 24 to 48 hours, Claudette should continue on a west to west-northwest track. This is the solution unanimously provided by most of the track guidance. Thereafter, a mid-level trough approaching the Gulf of Mexico should weaken the ridge forcing Claudette to slow down significantly near northern Yucatan. At longer range, the forecast track becomes highly uncertain and depends if the trough bypasses the tropical cyclone or not. This varies with the model you pick.

All indications are that there will be a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico in 4 or 5 days.

Forecaster Avila

Forecast positions and max winds

INITIAL 09/0300Z 15.2N 73.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.0N 80.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 21.0N 90.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.0N 92.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 25.0N 93.5W 55 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090240
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

…Air Force plane finds a stronger Claudette…

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.

At 11 PM EDT, 0300 UTC, the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a tropical storm warning for Grand Cayman. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

At 11 PM EDT, 0300Z, the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.2 degrees north, longitude 73.1 degrees west, or about 310 miles, 500 kilometers, southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 25 miles per hour, 41 kilometers per hour, and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed thereafter.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 miles per hour, 100 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Claudette could become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, 110 kilometers to the north of the center.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 1000 millibars, 29.53 inches of mercury.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves may occur along the south coast of Jamaica.

Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches may occur along the path of Claudette.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position: 15.2 °N, 73.1 °W. Movement toward, west near 25 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 65 miles per hour.
Minimum central pressure: 1000 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 AM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 AM EDT.

Forecaster Avila