The strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean was a mess of conflicting signals today. On one side, the satellite appearance was that of a significant tropical storm, with satellite intensity estimates as high as 45 knots from Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch. On the other side, the hurricane hunter aircraft, which made several passes through the apparent center and found no closed circulation. Just as the plane was leaving the area at 18Z it found 20-knot southwesterly winds, indicating a poorly-defined circulation, and pressures of 1006-1007 millibars. Based on this, the wave has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Claudette. The 45-knot initial intensity is based on a 57 knot flight-level wind measured by the aircraft.
The initial motion is a very rapid 280/25. Claudette is south of a strong subtropical ridge and should continue in a fast east to east-southeast flow for another 24 hours or so. After that, the storm will approach a weakness in the ridge, which will weaken further after 48 hours as a strong deep-layer trough develops over the eastern United States. National Hurricane Center track guidance responds to this by forecasting a rapid west-northwestward motion for 48 hours, followed by deceleration and a more northwesterly track. One possibility to be watched is that the trough could turn Claudette more northward than forecast. However, current trends suggest that Claudette will be west of the trough axis in 72-96 hours, which would produce a slower and more westward motion.
Claudette currently shows good anticyclonic outflow in all directions, and as long as it does not run under the upper-level low to the west, it should continue to strengthen. Large-scale models suggest that the upper-level winds should remain favorable, so the intensity forecast calls for strengthening until the center reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. After some weakening over land, the system should re-intensify over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
While the wind radii are small, other near-gale winds continue over the northern and northeastern Caribbean away from Claudette. Please consult forecasts from the Tropical Prediction Center and the Weather Forecast Office, San Juan, Puerto Rico for additional information.
Forecaster Beven
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 15.0N 71.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.8N 74.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 16.9N 79.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 18.0N 82.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 19.3N 86.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W 50 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 13/1800Z 24.0N 94.5W 55 KT
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003
Strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea spawns Tropical Storm Claudette, the third named storm of the season
At 5 PM EDT, 2100 UTC, the government of Jamaica has issued a tropical storm warning for Jamaica.
At 5 PM EDT, 2100 UTC, the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a tropical storm watch for the Cayman Islands.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the strong tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea has developed a closed circulation and has become a tropical storm.
At 5 PM EDT, 2100Z, the poorly defined center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.0 north, longitude 71.3 west, or about 415 miles, 670 km, east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
Claudette is moving toward the west near 29 miles per hour, 46 kilometers per hour, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This motion could bring the center of Claudette near Jamaica on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 miles per hour, 85 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, 110 km to the north of the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 1006 millibars, 29.71 inches of mercury.
Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves may occur along the south coast of Jamaica.
Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches may occur along the path of Claudette.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position: 15.0 °N, 71.3 °W. Movement toward, west near 29 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 50 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Beven
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