Replies

000
WTNT44 KNHC 090242
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

Claudette has an outstanding satellite presentation with deep convection near the center, excellent outflow, and well-defined banding features. The reconnaissance plane barely closed off a small circulation. However, the minimum pressure dropped to 1000 millibars with a peak wind of 72 knots at 1500 feet suggesting that Claudette has become better organized. Initial intensity is increased 55 knots. The upper-low ahead of Claudette, which could cause some shear, is forecast to move westward and weaken leaving a favorable upper-level environment in northwestern Caribbean. In addition, the upper oceanic heat content in the northwestern western Caribbean is high. Therefore, Claudette is forecast to strengthen and is expected to reach the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane.

Claudette is moving westward about 22 knots, embedded within a deep easterly mean flow associated with a strong ridge to the north. In the short term, 24 to 48 hours, Claudette should continue on a west to west-northwest track. This is the solution unanimously provided by most of the track guidance. Thereafter, a mid-level trough approaching the Gulf of Mexico should weaken the ridge forcing Claudette to slow down significantly near northern Yucatan. At longer range, the forecast track becomes highly uncertain and depends if the trough bypasses the tropical cyclone or not. This varies with the model you pick.

All indications are that there will be a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico in 4 or 5 days.

Forecaster Avila

Forecast positions and max winds

INITIAL 09/0300Z 15.2N 73.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.0N 80.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 21.0N 90.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.0N 92.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 25.0N 93.5W 55 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090240
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

…Air Force plane finds a stronger Claudette…

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.

At 11 PM EDT, 0300 UTC, the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a tropical storm warning for Grand Cayman. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

At 11 PM EDT, 0300Z, the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.2 degrees north, longitude 73.1 degrees west, or about 310 miles, 500 kilometers, southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 25 miles per hour, 41 kilometers per hour, and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed thereafter.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 miles per hour, 100 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Claudette could become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, 110 kilometers to the north of the center.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 1000 millibars, 29.53 inches of mercury.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves may occur along the south coast of Jamaica.

Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches may occur along the path of Claudette.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position: 15.2 °N, 73.1 °W. Movement toward, west near 25 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 65 miles per hour.
Minimum central pressure: 1000 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 AM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 AM EDT.

Forecaster Avila

July 8, 2003 — Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the strong tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea developed a closed circulation and has become a tropical storm. At 5 p.m. EDT, the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.0 north, longitude 71.3 west or about 415 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, according to the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 29 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This motion could bring the center of Claudette near Jamaica on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 1006 mb, 29.71 inches.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves may occur along the south coast of Jamaica. Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches may occur along the path of Claudette.

At 5 p.m. EDT, the government of Jamaica issued a tropical storm warning for Jamaica. The government of the Cayman Islands issued a tropical storm watch for the Cayman Islands.

---End of article---

Since I'll bet you don't want graphics slowing down this thread if it gets going, I'll link instead.

NOAA Tracking Map of Tropical Storm Claudette: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/claudette-tracking070803-5pm.jpg

NOAA satellite image of Tropical Storm Claudette taken by the NOAA GOES-10 at 2 PM EDT on July 8, 2003: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/claudette-070803-1800z2.jpg

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

A reconnaissance plane encountered a small band of flight level winds near 85 knots just northeast of the center at 04z, but more recently could only find 55-knot winds in the same area. The 85-knot observation could be used to upgrade Claudette to a hurricane. However, since the central pressure increased to 1004 millibars and the high winds appear to have been transitory, the official one-minute surface wind speed is estimated at 60 knots.

The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme model strengthens Claudette to 76 knots in 36 hours followed by weakening over the Yucatan Peninsula after 48 hours. The latest infrared satellite images show the central dense overcast feature distorted, the outer convective band has diminished, and there appears to be a flattening of the west side outflow by southwesterly winds aloft. These features along with the rise in central pressure are signs of inhibiting the strengthening process for the next several hours, but then strengthening may resume. The official forecast is to 70 knots in 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 275/22. The storm is embedded in deep easterlies to the south of a deep layer mean ridge. This ridge is forecast to break down over the Gulf of Mexico by day 4, which should result in a gradual slowing of forward speed and more northward component of motion. The guidance is generally in good agreement about a slowing west-northwestward track for 3 days bringing the storm across the Yucatan Peninsula and over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Guidance diverges some by day 5 with the Global Forecasting System model showing a location over the Bay of Campeche and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System model has the center over the north central Gulf. The official forecast follows a consensus of the guidance in between these extremes.

I have been unable to contact the national meteorological service of Mexico by telephone to coordinate a hurricane watch for the Yucatan Peninsula.

Forecaster Lawrence

Forecast positions and max winds

INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.3N 75.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 15.7N 78.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.2N 82.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 18.7N 85.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 88.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 22.0N 91.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 23.5N 92.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 25.0N 93.0W 55 KT

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

...Claudette moving swiftly across central Caribbean Sea...

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Jamaica and Grand Cayman. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A hurricane watch likely will be issued for the Mexican Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning.

At 5 AM EDT, 0900Z, the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.3 degrees north, longitude 75.5 degrees west, or about 200 miles, 325 kilometers, south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 25 miles per hour, 41 kilometers per hour, and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 miles per hour, 110 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts. There is a potential for strengthening during the next day or so and Claudette could become a hurricane. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, 260 kilometers from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 millibars, 29.65 inches of mercury.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves are expected along the south coast of Jamaica.

Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches are likely along the path of Claudette.

Repeating the 5 AM EDT position: 15.3 °N, 75.5 °W. Movement toward, west near 25 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 70 mils per hour. Minimum central pressure: 1004 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 8 AM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 AM EDT.

Forecaster Lawrence

NNNN