LET'S ROLL!!!
I think this is to get the scandals out of the way for 2008. There is no one that believes that Dubya can be defeated in 2004. Remember my likeability factor? If you compare 1988 with 2000 you will find that the difference between the 88 vote for a "third" Reagan term and the 00 vote for a "third" Clinton term was the publics dislike for Gore. People wanted the Clinton economy. And make no mistake that 30 percent in the middle wanted to continue the Clinton Economy. The half of the unideological center that votes for personality voted for dubya. The half that votes for "whats in it for me" voted for Gore. That was the basis of the presidential tie vote.
2004 will find Dubya has held his base. And has held the half of the middle that votes on likability. He will also get over half the "Whats in it for me" half of the center. "Whats in it for me" included protecting "me" from terrorists and if the economy is back on a roll, he will get 2/3 of the what is in it for me. He could break the Reagan numbers from 1984.
Hillary fully understands this situtation. She needs as you point out, to get some if not half the likeability vote in 2008. Polls tell her in no uncertain terms that she can't win a likability contest with Bush. She can't win the "Whats in it for me" vote if there are terrorists in the world. She has to wait for 2008.
What that means is she must take the sex scandals off the table. She does that with a book tour 5 years before she intends to run. They are doing this so it can be treated in the media as "Old News" gone over a hundred times by Hillary in 2003. She wants the scandals off the table in 2008.
What Hillary does not fully understand is the future growth in influence of Fox, Talk Radio, and the Internet. Her problem is she will not be able to take anything off the table. She may be aware of that.
Hillary is a realist. Right now it looks like the Republicans would not have a likable or even known candidate to run in 2008. It must look good to her.
What I invite people to do is watch Dubya put the spotlight on several potential candidates for 2008 during his next term. They will all be qualified for the job, the one that most connects with the voters will get a real buildup.
The Democrats are expecting to run against a nobody in 2008. Dubya will be concerned about his legacy.. that is the continuation of his plans and policies. He will groom people to take his place. He can't do it before he is re-elected... but he certainly will after. If Dubya gets that done so there is a popular and known heir apparent, Hillary my keep her pledge and not run in 2000.
People like Rush are saying that Hillary will have to face Rudy in 2006. That is just not true. If she does indeed plan to run, and Rudy looks like he might defeat her, she will not run. People stay in elected office to get media attention.That is the conventional wisdom. But Jimmy Carter proved otherwise. He was an ex governor two years before the 1976 election. He spent that two years running for the presidency and Won. That fact is not lost on Hillary Clinton.
If she thinks she can win in 2008, she will nto run for the senate and devote her time to being democratic spokesperson and builder of the parties grass roots. Remember too that Nixon lost the race for president in 1960, and the race for California governor in 1964. He then spent the next 4 years working to rebuild the Republican party. It got him the nomination.
There is no reason Hillary can't do the same think. I think she will. Only if Hillary has decided she can't be president, will She run for re-electin to the senate in 2006.