Will Iraqi War Tempt China to Invade Taiwan?

Last week during a speech at the Great Hall of the People, Hu Jintao, the newly appointed head of China's Communist Party, claimed that under his leadership China would "contribute to peace and prosperity in the rest of the world."

However, Hu, a conservative hard-liner known for his anti-American rhetoric, supported the Tiannamen Square crackdown, used the military to crush Tibetan protestors in 1989, and authorized anti-U.S. demonstrations in 1999. During a visit to Malaysia last April, Jintao pledged that China would counter American influence in Asia and oppose the "bullying superpower," echoing Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian's sentiments that war between China and the United States was "inevitable."

More alarmingly, there are strong indications that China is preparing to capitalize on the growing American military commitments in the Middle East by invading the island nation of Taiwan.

Southeast Asian experts Stephen Young and Arthur Weldon have characterized China's post-9/11 strategy as a "radical departure" from their historical diplomatic pattern and indicative of a "policy of intervention and naval adventurism seeking the subservience of mainland Southeast Asia to Chinese national need."

Pentagon analysts have likewise expressed concern at the apparent refocusing of Chinese military doctrine to a strategy of "pre-emptive and surprise attacks."

For the second consecutive year, China is projected to increase its military expenditures by almost 20 percent. A large portion of China's "phantom" military budget (Pentagon analysts have estimated China's military expenditures are $45 billion higher than its stated spending) is spent on pursuing offensive missile weaponry such as advanced nuclear tipped DF-5, DF-31, DF-41, JL-2 and CSS-5 rockets.

In addition to its nuclear load, the CSS-5 missile is equipped with a half-dozen "penetration aids," dummy warheads, designed to counter U.S. missile defense platforms in Japan and Taiwan.

The DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missile development project is clearly representative of Chinese intelligence deputy Lt. Gen. Xiong Guankai's plan of deterring American military intervention during an invasion of Taiwan by possessing the "will and ability" to launch nuclear strikes against American cities.

In the wake of the September 11th attacks and the subsequent U.S. action in Afghanistan, Chinese interceptor jets have resumed harrying American RC-135 and EP-3 surveillance aircraft flying along the Southeast Asian coastline. The situation is reminiscent of the conditions which lead to an American EP-3 surveillance plane making an emergency landing in Chinese territory after aggressive flying by a Chinese F-8 interceptor caused a mid-air collision on April 1, 2001. For the next eleven days twenty-four American service men and women were, in no uncertain terms, held captive by the Communist Chinese government

Since Sept. 7, 2002, Chinese air and naval forces have continuously violated international law by conducting no less than six intercept operations against the USS Bowditch, a U.S. Navy ship conducting hydrographic surveys in international waters in the Yellow Sea.

China's "Liberation 2" military exercise conducted in the fall of 2001 simulated an invasion of the Taiwan mainland and concerted air, sea, and missile attacks on U.S. aircraft carriers. More recently, in July 2002, the pro-Communist Hong Kong newspaper, Wen Wei Po, reported that top Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) sources confirmed that China has placed the invasion of Taiwan as its paramount strategic focus in the region.

Moreover, despite claims of supporting the international war on terrorism, China continues to export weaponry to rogue "axis of evil" nations Iran, North Korea and Iraq. Intelligence sources additionally believe that China shipped SA-7 surface-to-air missiles to the Taliban regime after the 9/11 attacks, and as recently as August 2002, hosted a Taliban delegation lead by Ustad Khalil, the brother of high-ranking Taliban warlord Jalaluddin Haqqani.

There can be little doubt that North Korea's acknowledgement in October 2002 that it has pursued a covert nuclear development program was designed to gauge American resolve to meet emerging threats while concurrently preparing for war with Iraq. China, North Korea's closest ally, feigned surprise at the announcement, but clearly benefits this ploy to test the United States willingness to potentially engage in Major Theater Warfare on a second front while engaged in hostilities in the Middle East.

One month later, the surprise Chinese support for United Nations Resolution 1441 (China had abstained from Resolution 678 in November 1990, which authorized U.N. action to remove Iraq from Kuwait), removed key political roadblocks to the likely U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq. In a speech before the Iraqi National Assembly Uday Hussein, Saddam's eldest son, expressed shock and dismay over China's support of the resolution after they had represented to Iraq that "they would use the veto against resolution 1441".

With already substantial, extended military commitments in Afghanistan and potentially Iraq, the geopolitical landscape may necessitate U.S. military intervention in at least three growing flashpoints in the Southwest Asia region.

First, the markedly anti-American, pro-wahhabist Crown Prince Abdullah will likely ascend to the thrown of Saudi Arabia after the passing of King Fahd. However, Prince Abdullah and the more pro-American faction of Sudeiri princes led by Minister of Defense Prince Sultan are all in their mid to late seventies, the average age of mortality for Saudi royalty. It will be foreesably ten to twelve years before the next generation of younger princes, Fahd's grandchildren, ascend to the throne possessing the potential for longer reigns.

In addition to likely short reigns, the future Kings of Saudi Arabia will have to contend with growing radical Islamic factions by led ulamas, religious leaders, such as Salman al-Awda, Safar al-Hawali, 'Ayd al-Qarni and Hamad al-Surayhi. Saudi Arabia will also be faced with the volatile issue of inter-tribal conflicts such as that which exists between the Hijazi and Najdis.

Second, the Syrian Accountability Act, currently before Congress, is the first major American step towards ending the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. Similar to China's apparent plans for Taiwan, Syria invaded Lebanon in October of 1990 while Western military forces were building up in the region to oust Iraq from Kuwait.

In 1990, the pro-Western Lebanese government of Prime Minister General Michel Aoun, a Maronite Christian, was attempting to maintain the delicate balance of a Christian-Muslim coalition government while concurrently battling the vanguard of today's wave of Islamic extremists.

Since the Syrian occupation, Lebanon has become a haven for terrorist entities such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, al Qaeda, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command. These groups will likely have to be dealt with militarily if regional stability and a pro-Western democracy in Lebanon are going to be restored.

Third, and most important, there is mounting evidence that growing opposition to the hard-line Iranian leadership's consistent violation of the Islamic Republic's constitution is reaching a fever pitch. Earlier this month over 1000 students in Tehran protested the death sentence levied against reformist professor Hashem Aghajari. It was the largest student protest since 1999, and calls for reformist President Mohammad Khatami's resignation are further indications of mounting frustration at the hard-line Guardians Council's resistance to reforms.

Unemployment in Iran is steadily rising, forty percent of the country's drinking water network is in disrepair, and according to the Iranian Minister of Science, Research, and Technology over 220,000 of Iran's leading academic elites and industrialists permanently emigrated to the West in 2001. Anti-government rioting has recently broken out in Khorasan province and parliamentarian Hussein Ansari-Rad has publicly admitted that Tehran is a "city on the verge of crisis in all respects."

Recent polls conducted by Iranian officials have shown over three-fourths of the population supports increased dialogue and renewed ties with the United States, indicating that calls for American support may be enjoined with a reformist overthrow of the hard-line regime.

This is what I see as the scenario of maximum danger: China will attempt to invade Taiwan at a moment that capitalizes on the United States' growing role in the Middle East and at a juncture when, in the words of Maj. Gen. Huang Bin of China's National Defense University, the replenishing of our expenditures of smart weapons in other theaters of combat becomes "too expensive" to engage in another "protracted war."

Thus, we must be vigilant to avoid a myopic view of the world as we engage in the war on terrorism. The Bush administration must endeavor to judiciously utilize the U.S. military to further foreign policy goals without creating windows of opportunity for nations such as Communist China to engage in military adventurism.

Tom Knowlton writes about military affairs and terrorism. He can be reached at TKnowltonDW@aol.com.

Intelligence sources additionally believe that China shipped SA-7 surface-to-air missiles to the Taliban regime after the 9/11 attacks

This does put a wrinkle in things, though I still think that they won't invade. The cost would be too high, and the Chinese are pragmatic. One or more generations and Mao will be forgotten; nobody will notice they're still essentially fascist.

As to the Islamo-fascist contacts and contracts: could be protection money. The Huygars, and other groups along their Western border are becoming troublesome, and some are aligned with Alqueda.

China and the Taliban are enemies and will NOT supply them the time of the day

The Taliban had been trainning for years, 10000s of anti-China terrorists of the Islamic East Turkestan Army gighting China for independence of Xinjiang. These terrorists had bombed Chinese civilian targets killing 1000s, including 100s of schoolchildren

If this attacks persist and get out of hand, China is prepared to send 10000000s of troops across their borders to Afghanistan to eradicate the Taliban, so said Military intelligences

China is prepared to send 10000000s of troops across their borders to Afghanistan to eradicate the Taliban

I'm sure their help would be appreciated, but see no need at this point. Knowledge that they share our sentiments certainly warms the heart, though.

I never said they'll invade,...

My bad.

They're looking at anywhere from 2005-2010 when most if not all their modernizations will come online.

I doubt they'll need to by that time, given they way they're drawing in capital investment. Lenin once remarked: "the capitalist will gladly sell you the rope you hang him with;" Lenin was a lot of things, but stupid wasn't one.

Things could change: invasion(check post 24.), economic collapse (a real, and scary possibility,) or some paranoid martinet taking over the controls, any of these would alter things, and probably bring on the other three. But if they keep their course, they might do very well.

Here's the question: what should we do? Should Japan get Nukes? How do the Korean markets stack up? What about the Philipines? Shouldn't we be promoting alternatives, or are these things already in motion?

My 2 cents.

I think we should allow Japan to develop a stronger conventional force. South Korea can defeat North Korea in an all-conventional war by itself. The Philipino Military needs a complete overhaul. Its warplanes are woefully outdated F-5s. The Navy couldn't stop a fleet of junks from invading. However, the ground forces have been improved by US advisors. I think we need to bring Russia into NATO because China wants resources. Another area to watch is Vietnam and the rest of Indochina.

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