Posted on 03/30/2002 2:32:31 PM PST by Dales
Although I am penning the Yankees in as the division champions, I look at them going into this year as having a high probability of having a season much like the Braves did last year- underwhelming and vulnerable, even if they manage to hang on. Where many see one of the league's best rotations, I see an again corps with real questions at the fourth and fifth starter positions. Clemens wasn't as good as most thought last year, which is offset by the fact that Mussina was better than most thought. But what will cause the Yankees the most problems this year is that they have three lineup positions where they will get below-league average production (both corner outfield positions and third base), and their defense is subpar, particularly if they keep their best defensive first baseman on the bench in order to put should-be DH Giambi in the field. The grumblings that Steinbrenner wants to trade impressive rookie Nick Johnson (the should-be first baseman) to improve the outfield situation is also troubling. I predict something on the order of 88 wins.
The Red Sox have enough talent to overtake the Yankees if everything breaks right for them and the Yankees don't have everything break right for them. However, the undeniable fact is that these are the Red Sox, and as such it is pretty much a certainty that everything will not break right for them. As a Red Sox fan lamented on the Baseball Prospectus website last year, Red Sox fans are not sure if there is a God, but they are darned certain there is a devil. However, team turmoil did manage 82 wins last year without Pedro or Nomar for most of the year and without a good closer for much of it as well. Throw in the addition of Damon and the removal of the Dan Duquette saga, and envisioning a 4-5 game pickup in the standings is not all that difficult. That should be enough to have them in position to challenge the Yankees if they come back to the pack a bit.
The Blue Jays surprised a lot of people by flirting with 500 last year, and they are well positioned to continue to surprise people, and may actually be right there with the Yankees and the Red Sox for an entertaining three way divisional battle. The most important change the team made from last year was the hiring OPB fanatic J.P. Riccardi to be the General Manager. Within weeks of his hiring, incumbent manager Martinez was already talking about the need for players to work the count more and to take the free pass, a marked change from his previous adoration for "aggressive" hitters. The added emphasis on working the counts will aid in the development of youngsters such as Vernon Wells, Eric Hinske, and even the more established Jose Cruz (who earlier in his career was quite adept at taking a walk). This should lead to more RBI opportunities for Stewart, Mondesi, and Delgado, and should also allow the team to get to other teams' more vulnerable middle relief corps. The rotation is also quite interesting, with some young control freaks (who avoid giving up walks) Lyon and Prokopec joining emerging talent Halladay and the steady Carpenter. I would not be shocked if they end up winning the division, although that is still probably a year away. 85 wins sounds about right.
The gap between the top three teams in this division and the bottom feeders is immense. Only because the Devil Rays actually have some young talent that could develop into better producers than they have shown to be so far do they get the nod over the similarly troubled Orioles. Toby Hall, Steve Cox, and Ben Grieve all have the talent to do better, and the likelihood that even one will is high enough to make them the safer pick to avoid the basement, although another 100 loss season probable.
Not even a single position player likely to start for the Orioles this year would be a starter on the Yankees, Red Sox, or Blue Jays, with the possible exception of defensive hack Tony Batista at third base. The rotation is an odd mix of fading veterans, injury comebacks, and low ceiling prospects. They will challenge for the worst record in baseball, and likely come closer to 105 losses than 70 wins.
They caught everyone by surprise last year, but couldn't maintain the early pace as management made some questionable player moves (trading Lawton for Reed when they needed offense comes to mind), some key players got injured (Guzman), and some players flat-out imploded (Hawkins). They have some help approaching from the minors, and a full year from Guzman should be enough to keep them at the same general win total as last year, which should be enough to win what is shaping up as the weakest division in the American League.
Things are changing by the former mistake by the lake. The league-joke-turned-near-dynasty-like-the-Bills are no longer an offensive juggernaut, with Jim Thome being the only truly inspired force in the lineup. The rotation is impressive, however, if a bit of a gamble. Colon, Sabithia, Baez, and Drese along with fading veteran Finley are now the real strength of this team. That said, the loss of Alomar and the reliance on so many young arms makes repeating last year's success unlikely. They have the starting pitching to match up with the Twins, but a much inferior defense and an offense that might actually be worse. Pencil them in to top 500, but not by much.
Last year many looked at the White Sox as the up-and-coming team in the division. The season ending injury to Frank Thomas was just one contribution to a bit of a black cloud that seemed to hover over the squad most of the year. This spring, again people are looking at them as a possible dynamo, but I just don't see it. Obviously, a full year of the Big Hurt will help, but I think it is unlikely that Mark Buehrle can repeat his phenomenal season- pitchers who don't strike out batters tend to have trouble maintaining such a high level of success. The rest of the pitching staff has long term talent, but has yet to show any indication that they are ready to control the strike zone, and a Rangers-like staff performance is possible. They will contend with the Indians and Twins, but will also be near the 500 mark, just like last year.
The botton of the AL Central will consist of two teams that used to be consistent contenders not all that long ago, but in most recent times have been just plain awful. The Tigers have a few players with some interesting offensive skills, but they are a team that is just poorly matched for their ballpark. They play in a park where power is muted, yet their main offensive skill in aggregate is power. They play in a park where the spaciousness makes defensive range imporant, yet they have an abundence of guys who should be playing DH. Playing in such a huge park will limit the suckage of Jose Lima, and there is some talent on the staff in Weaver and long term in Cornejo (soon to be joined by Kenny Baugh). They are better than last year, but in the grand scheme of things, improving to 70 wins won't mean much.
They signed their best offensive player, Mike Sweeney, to what amounts to a 2 year deal. His contract is for longer than that, but has a clause that lets him opt out if the Royals finish below 500 in either 2003 or 2004. There is little hope that this team will even approach 500 by then, no less reach and maintain it. Things won't improve in George Brett's old digs until GM Baird and Manager Muser have been sent packing.
The Mariners were silly-good during the regular season last year. In some seasons, 95 wins would be enough to have the best record in the league, and 95 wins would represent a 21 game drop from last year. So even if one thinks that the Mariners will regress, there is still a lot of room for regression while being a top contender. And frankly, the Mariners went out and tried to improve their squad from last season. There is better depth and offensive capability at catcher now (having imported Ben Davis), there is better defense and offensive capability at third base now (having acquired Jeff Cirillo). There is better defense and offensive capability in left now (having jettisoned Al Martin for Ruben Sierra and Mark McLemore). Yes, it is likely that Bret Boone will return to being merely adequate. Yes, losing Aaron Sele hurts a tad. But this is still a very good team, and if Ichiro has truly added some power to his game as it appeared in the spring, then 105 wins is not out of the question.
They won 102 games last year, and didn't come close to winning the division. They should have been in the World Series except for a boneheaded choice not to slide coupled with some outrageous heads-up play from Derek Jeter. This is also still a very good team, just not quite as good as last year when they had Jason Giambi. The top of the rotation is awesome, with three Cy Young candidates still in the improving ages (Hudson, Zito, Mulder). If they give Pena time to settle in, he should minimize the impact of losing Giambi, although it will still be a fairly sizeable loss. They may take as much of a step back this year as the Mariners, leaving them still comfortably out of first place, but still giving them the second best record in the America League, with on the order of 95 wins.
They talked, going into last year, about the Rangers having an offense for the ages. Somewhere along the line, someone got confused and thought they meant that the Rangers would allow their opponents to have offense for the ages, as the Rangers pitched their way to one of the worst staff performances of recent memory. As good as last year's offense was supposed to be, this year's will be and then some. Every single position will be above average offensively, and at many positions significantly so. From A-Rod to I-Rod to Mount Everett to dynamic rookie Hank Blalock to super-utilityman Frank Catalanotto to the ever-consistent Rafael Palmeiro, the lineup is loaded for bear. And give it a year, when Young is moved aside and when Teixeira and Kenny Mench get added. Wow. The rub is that the pitching is still horrid, even if it is improved from last year. This team will make a significant step forward, but asking for more than a 15 win improvement by any team is expecting a miracle, and the 90 wins I think they will get would win either other division, but will leave them sitting at home this year anyway.
They will easily be the worst last place team in baseball, but that is a minor consolation. They simply don't have a lineup that can keep pace with any of the other squads in the hit-happy AL West, and while their rotation has some excited, it doesn't match up with the A's crew. Last year's record looks about right to me.
They are in the process of making the same transition as the Indians, only in reverse, going from being a pitching dominated club to being a hitting-first squad. They just aren't as far along in the process, and their pitching has not slid nearly as much as the Indians' bats have. Lopez (when healthy), Giles, Furcal, Jones, Jones and Sheffield should all provide above league average production, and there still are those Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz guys hanging around (the latter now trying to become Dennis Eckersley reincarnated). There are some young arms waiting for a shot should Milwood or Marquis falter, so there is some wiggle room if there are some struggles by either. This is a good team, although one that should be looking for a way to upgrade their 1B production. I can't think of a team in the league that would be improved more by turning one or two of those young pitchers into either Erubiel Durazo or Jack Cust. 90 wins and another title is the call here.
They get Lieberthal back, they get another year of seasoning for youngsters Burrell and Rollins, and their rotation is getting an influx of young talent such as Duckworth and Padilla. This team could immediately augment their chances by ditching manager Bowa's favorite Doug Glanville for Marlon Byrd, and I expect that to happen at some point during the season. It was no fluke that they were in contention to the end last year, and I expect much of the same, 86-88 wins or so and giving the Braves a run for their money.
You have to give the Mets credit. Last year they were dead and buried, and they played tough anyway, scratching back into it to make things more interesting. In the end, they didn't have enough punch, so they went out and tried anything and everything they could to change that. The offense looks to be significantly improved (and there was a lot of room for improvement, as they were not a good run scoring team last year) but aging- Mo Vaughn and Robbie Alomar's best days are probably behind them, moreso for Mo. The lineup has three offensive sinkholes in Ordonez, Payton, and Cedeno, and the rotation is iffy with Estes, Astaci and Trachsel joining the oft-injured D'Amico. At least Leiter is consistently good. They may improve on last year, but if so not by nearly enough to catch the Braves or Phillies. Pencil them in for 84 wins.
If only it wasn't run by the same folks who destroyed the Montreal Expos. This team has some of the best young talent, particular in the rotation, in the league. If it wasn't for the sneaking suspicion that at the first sign of trouble, ownership will start cutting salaries left and right so that they can blame their troubles on lack of sufficient revenue sharing (and positioning for a lucrative contraction payoff), the Marlins would be a decent choice for surprise sleeper of the year. The rotation of Penny, Burnett, Beckett and Dempster could be as good as any four-man combination in the majors, and there is some sock in the lineup with Preston Wilson, Cliff Floyd, and Kevin Millar. Were it not for the fact that I bet they will start moving talent in exchange for used men's undergarments halfway through the season, I would pencil them in for 82 wins, but a repeat of last year is a safer bet considering.
The Expos have some very nice players, who will be performing for nobody with a future that is quite certain in that it won't be in Montreal. If you would take away Vladimir Guerrero, Jose Vidro, Javier Vasquez, Tony Aramas Jr., and Carl Pavano, you would have the Devil Rays. And if you further turned Bergeron, Stevens, and Tatis into 10 years older versions of themselves, you would have the Orioles. But the Expos are better than those two teams, by about 10 games, which makes last year's totals seem about right.
They tied with the Cardinals for first last year, in a year when a large number of things went wrong for the Astros. They suffered key injuries, they had off years from key contributors, and they had managerial turmoil. If they can avoid having all that go wrong this year, than they will be well positioned to improve by a game or two, which will be enough to win this top-heavy division. The rotation is the best in the division, with Oswalt and Miller having proven their merits, and with young phenoms Carlos Hernandez and Tim Redding looking to do the same over the course of the season. Losing Alou will hurt, but then he was lost for a good portion of last year as well, and with a capable bat such as Ward around, it is not a catastrophic loss. I would rather have Ensberg than Castilla at this point, so that change is a net positive.
They weren't supposed to be as competitive as they ended up being last year, and this year expectations are a lot higher. Overall, I see this team taking a step forward offensively, with a full year of decent production from the first base position (either with McGriff, or if he struggles, future star Hee Seop Choi). Alou and the amazing Sosa provide great production from the outfield corners, and Patterson can play a mean CF, even if he can't really hit worth a lick yet. The weakest parts of the lineup (Patterson, Girardi/Hundley, and Gonzalez) at least provide good defense and some offensive capabilities (be it speed or occasional pop). As for the pitching, the talent is there for this to be a dominating staff, but the relative youth of it and the loss of pitching coach Ernie Acosta to the Rangers may keep them from reaching a top level this season. Lieber, Wood and Cruz should be fine (if healthy), but Bere and Clement are unlikely to be enough to drive the Cubs to a pennant. I see a slight step back, to 85 wins, and a second place finish.
Everywhere I look, there are predictions that the Cardinals are the cream of the National League. Frankly, I don't see it. I see a flawed lineup; Mike Matheny is an absolute hole in the lineup at catcher, Placido Polanco is well below average, Edgar Renteria is being paid for his glove, not his bat, and the same can be said about Vina. Further, Tino Martinez provides numbers in the glamour stat of RBIs, but his production is pretty superficial. His on-base percentage is substandard, and his power numbers mediocre. Throw in the fact that he is aging, and it is yet another below average offensive position. Drew and Edmonds are great producers in the OF, but the fact is that both are hard to depend upon because of injury tendencies. I see this as a team that will struggle more than expected to score runs.
The rotation is equally questionable. Morris is fine when healthy, and Kile is fine when having a good year. The problem is that health is not a given for Morris and a good year is not a given for Kile. Woody Williams, Garrett Stephenson, and Andy Benes are not the way to fill out the type of rotation I think would fit the type of expectations that the Cardinals are providing. And on top of it, Tony LaRussa is one of the most overrated managers in recent memory. This is a guy who couldn't find a way to get J.D. Drew into the lineup full time when healthy, who doesn't think that Bud Smith is one of his top three (heck, top five) starters at this very moment, and who had a bizarre fetish with Craig Paquette (and now with Placido Polanco). I expect the Cardinals to take the largest step back of any team, and to finish a distance third, within a spitting distance of 500 at 82 wins.
Last year, the Reds went the season with almost no contributions from Griffey or Larkin, only had Adam Dunn for half the season, had no production from the second base position at all, got an off year from Sean Casey, and had lousy pitching. While expecting a full year from Larkin or expecting the pitching staff to suddenly become top notch is unrealistic, it is not difficult to expect more from 1st base, 2nd base, shortstop, center field, left field and the rotation than last year. As such, the Reds can be expected to make a fairly sizeable step forward, particularly if pitching coach Don Gullett (one of the best in the business) can turn any of the tired arms into valuable contributors. A ten win improvement sounds about right.
While this team squeaked ahead of the Reds into fourth place last year, this is not a very talented club. An outfield of Jenkins/Hammonds/Ochoa compares not at all well to the in-division competition, be it Ward/Berkman/Hidalgo, Pujols/Edmonds/Drew, Alou/Patterson/Sosa, or Dunn/Griffey/Warm Body. And it isn't like the infield tears the cover off the ball either, although Sexson can provide some power. Ben Sheets and the entertaining Nick Neugebauer (who pitches as if his hair is on fire) are two potential top-of-the-rotation studs, but both are injury concerns. The other starters also have potential, but not enough to make the Brew crew serious threats. Where they ended up last year wins wise is about where they will end up this year.
New General Manager Littlefield has been making some of the right moves, picking up some cheap talent in trades (such as Kip Wells) and finding a way to get rid of some dead weight, such as Operation Shutdown himself, Derek Bell. Still, the club is saddled with some expensive sinkholes in Kevin Young and Pat Meares, and other than Jason Kendell, superstar Brian Giles, the emerging Aramis Rameirez, and under-appreciated (by manager Llody McClendon) Craig A. Wilson, there isn't an ounce of offensive talent on the squad. The rotation isn't exactly bursting with name talent either, although the expected mid-season return of Kris Benson should help. A small step forward is possible, but 70 wins will prove to be an elusive goal, as the Pirates will fall a game or two short of that total.
Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson can apparently carry a team quite a ways, as last year demonstrated. The offense is a concern, as age and injury are already taking a toll. Luis Gonzalez should continue his late career surge, but there is not a lot of pop in the bats of Damien Miller, Mark Grace, Craig Counsell, Jay Bell, Steve Finley, and Danny Bautista. Free Erubiel Durazo (er, when he heals, that is). 89 wins should be enough for a repeat division title.
They couldn't win last year despite a year for the ages from the amazing Barry Bonds. He won't repeat that level this year (he can't, can he?) but he will still be among the top three or four players in the entire league. He will get more offensive support this year, as Shinjo and Sanders will help Aurilia and Kent make sure Bonds doesn't have to do it all. The rotation, however, has a bunch of question marks. Will Schmidt be healthy? Will Hernandez' arm fall off from the abuse of high pitch counts? Is Russ Ortiz under age 40? Is Kurt Ainsworth ready? How about Boof Bosner? 85 wins, with a title within reach if everything goes right.
The Padres surprised a lot of people by being halfway decent last year, and I expect them to continue to surprise people. Sean Burroughs can play, and has the kind of attitude that helps others on the team become better. Nevin and Klesko have potent bats, and Wiki Gonzalez has talent. Throw in supporting lineup mates D'Angelo Jiminez, Bubba Trammell (or Ray Lankford), and Mark Kotsay, and the offense should be decent. The gloves aren't great, but are certainly not far off the league average overall. The rotation is the key for the Padres. Jarvis, Jones, Tollberg and Lawrence comprise a less than imposing set, but they aren't awful. One or two of them could piece together an impressive year without too much of a step forward, and odds are they will be joined by excellent prospect Jacob Peavy before too long. 82 wins are within reach.
The Rockies should be better than they are. They have Todd Helton. Larry Walker. Mike Hampton. Denny Neagle. Jose Ortiz. Juan Uribe. Todd Hollandsworth. The problem is that many of these guys have injury problems, and Coors field seems to cause any pitcher, no matter how talented, to completely lose it (even on the road). Just because the youngsters up the middle have a year of seasoning behind them, and because perhaps after a year of adjustment, Neagle and Hampton won't be quite as bad, I will slot them for a 4 win improvement, up to 77 wins. Anything beyond that will be a shock.
They were actually competitive last year, despite Kevin Brown having injury problems on and off. However, they lost Chan Ho Park to the Rangers, they traded Gary Sheffield for the vastly overrated Brian Jordan, and they really don't have much in their lineup to help Shawn Green. Their double-play combination will both likely have sub-300 on-base percentages, and centerfield doesn't look to be much better. This team is expecting to be in the race, but I see them as completely falling apart, to the tune of merely 73 wins.
NL MVP: Sammy Sosa
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
NL Rookie: Josh Beckett
Let's hear everyone else's!
So is Sideshow Bob. He's running some sort of FReeper Fantasy Baseball League on Yahoo. You might be a participant for all I know.
I predict that by the time each team finishes their 7,000 game schedule 9 months from now, I'll damn near be ready to slit my wrists....
A.L.
Washington Senators
St. Louis Browns
Seattle Pilots
Boston Pilgrims
N.L.
Troy Trojans
Brooklyn Superbas
Worcester Ruby Legs
Providence Grays
Browns over Grays in the World Series!
Left field (Geoff Jenkins) - Easily the best everyday player the Brewers have. Unfortunately, that's not saying much because he's part of the strikeout crew, and his health is a big question mark.
Center field (Jeffrey Hammonds/Alex Sanchez) - Hammonds is a broken-down, overpriced middle-of-the-road center fielder when healthy. He isn't healthy that much, so Sanchez will play a lot. Sanchez has decent speed, a worse-than-average arm, and questionable plate discipline.
Right field (flavor of the day) - If Alex Ochoa can't become an everyday right fielder in Milwaukee this year, he should just hang it up. Matt (Beer Man) Stairs is a HUGE liability in right (you'll see at least 2 inside-the-park homers to right when he's out there over the course of the season). He's such a liability that Hammonds has platooned here, which is something that won't last much longer as Hammonds is just about due for a stint on the DL.
Third base (Ronnie Belliard/Tyler Houston) - A pair of poor bats and poor fielders, though Houston has the better arm.
Shortstop (Jose Hernandez) - I do not see last season as a "breakout" year. His arm's a loose cannon, though he has infinitely-greater range than the backup (Mark Loretta). Again, health is a big question mark.
Second (Eric Young) - An over-the-hill has-been who represents, at best, a fractional improvement over Ronnie Belliard, with almost all of that improvement in the health department.
First (Richie Sexon) - About the only bad things I can say about Sexon is that he's another strikeout king (due to his size), a middle-of-the-road first baseman, and he's overdue for a lengthy stay on the DL.
Catcher (Raul Casanova/Paul Bako) - Casanova has NOTHING in the catching department (can't hit, can't throw anybody out, can't call a game to save his life). Bako can at least call a game, but the Brewer management stupidly put him as the #2 catcher.
Starting pitching - When Ben Sheets and Nick Neugebauer are healthy, it's Sheets, Neugie and 3 days of rain. Sheets continually has a dead-arm problem (the last 2 seasons were cut short), and Neugebauer is injury-prone. The other 3 starters are below-average to absolutely horrid, and they also have injury issues
Relief pitching - They'll be overworked (again) and be overrated (a bit unusual for a Brewer pen). They have no closer (even when/if Chad Fox and Curtis Leskanic return), no arms, and no hope.
Bench - Let me put it this way; if the Brewers have anything close to their normal share of injuries, the few fans that are left will see just how bare the cupboard is. Any loss of a starter for any length of time would be a big problem. The Brewers always lose several starters for months at a time.
Coaching - This bunch is uncoachable, and with the exception of Lopes (who has been proven to not be able to manage), the coaching staff is unproven.
Net result: 54-108.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.