Posted on 03/22/2002 7:16:32 AM PST by Dales
|
The Daily Prospectus: Rookies by Joe Sheehan Perhaps the question I get the most this time of year is "Who will win the Rookie of the Year Awards?" It's a tough one, because winning the award isn't just about being the top prospect in the game. Opportunity plays a huge role, as does age. All else being equal, a 24-year-old rookie has a better chance to win the award than a 21-year-old, even though the 21-year-old is the more valuable property. Rookies of the Year, in fact, are often older players having the best year of their career, while younger players who barely register in the voting go on to have the most success. Season League Winner Others 1995 AL Marty Cordova Shawn Green (fifth) 1994 AL Bob Hamelin Jim Edmonds (eighth) 1990 AL Sandy Alomar Jr. Robin Ventura (seventh) 1989 AL Gregg Olson Ken Griffey Jr. (third), Kevin Brown (sixth) 1986 NL Todd Worrell Barry Bonds (sixth), Barry Larkin (eighth) (If you ever have a free hour, take a look at the guys who've received votes in RotY balloting over the years. The giggle factor is very high. Chad Fonville? Frank Seminara? Bill Risley?) With these things in mind, I've picked two third basemen to win the awards this season. In the NL, I like the Padres' Sean Burroughs. Yeah, I know... "get in line.". Burroughs has been one our top five prospects in each of the last three seasons, and this year, opens as the Padres' third baseman. The Pads, in fact, have relocated their best two players, Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko, to make room for the 21-year-old Burroughs. In Baseball Prospectus 2002, we list a .292/.372/.425 line for Burroughs this year, with 30 doubles and seven home runs in 424 at-bats. I believe that underprojects his power development and playing time by a fair amount. Look for close to 50 extra-base hits and a slugging average above .450, and for Burroughs to walk away with the hardware. If Burroughs doesn't win the award, the Dodgers' Kazuhisa Ishii is the next most best candidate. Like Hideo Nomo and Kazuhiro Sasaki before him, Ishii is a veteran star from Japan coming into an excellent pitching environment. Ishii has scuffled a bit so far--an 11.11 ERA in three outings--but with his repertoire and a home in Dodger Stadium, he'll be well-positioned to win the NL award if Burroughs falters. The trade of Chris Truby means that Morgan Ensberg's shot at glory is much improved. Ensberg, a third baseman with power and patience, will have the opportunity to rack up good numbers playing in Astros-Until-Someone-Writes-A-Big-Check Field. Given the difference in their home parks, it's possible that Ensberg could steal the award from Burroughs thanks to better-looking stats, while being a lesser player. The other serious candidates in the NL come with question marks, mostly having to do with playing time. They include the Cubs' Corey Patterson and Mark Prior, the Brewers' Nick Neugebauer, the Astros' Carlos Hernandez, and the Marlins' Josh Beckett. Players who aren't on radar, but could surprise, include the Braves' Tim Spooneybarger, the Astros' Jason Lane, and the Marlins' Kevin Olsen. My pick in the AL lacks the great back story Burroughs has. Eric Hinske, traded twice in a year, looks like he'll hold the Blue Jays' third-base job. If he plays, he'll win the AL Rookie of the Year Award. J.P. Ricciardi did well to get Hinske (and Justin Miller) from the A's in exchange for Billy Koch. Hinske gives the Jays a much-needed dose of OBP, and while his defense at the hot corner hasn't been great so far, he should hit enough to make that a non-issue. There are a number of young AL hitters who could bash their way to an awards ceremony in New York. The A's Carlos Pena, the Yankees' Nick Johnson, and the Twins' Michael Cuddyer all appear to have jobs in hand, and all three can rake. Pena is the best defender of the group, while Johnson looks like he'll be consigned to the DH slot. Cuddyer is making a transition from third base to right field, and can be expected to make most of his contribution this year with his bat. Other names to remember include the Orioles' John Stephens, the Jays' Felipe Lopez, the Royals' Angel Berroa, the Tigers' Nate Cornejo, and the White Sox' Joe Borchard and Joe Crede. It's not as deep a pool as the NL's.
-- Baseball Prospectus 2002 is now shipping -- Click here for more details! Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by clicking here.
|
|
The Daily Prospectus: Who? Never Heard of Him. by Joe Sheehan Yesterday's column about rookies wasn't up two minutes when I got my first e-mail about it. The note was polite, informative, and caused me to bang my head quite violently upon my desk. I'd left out Hank Blalock. Look, I'd love to claim I have some inside information that tells me Blalock can't be AL Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, I don't. The guy is a stud. He's our #1 prospect--no, the BP curse is not why he didn't make the column--and part of a ridiculous wave of third basemen hitting baseball's shores right about now. What happened was that yesterday's column had been kicking around my hard drive for about three weeks, time enough for Blalock to go from great prospect with an ETA of 2003 to possible Rangers starter at third base. The guy can flat-out rake, and playing in Arlington, is capable of putting up numbers this year that would make him a runaway winner of top rookie honors. When I pulled up the piece to polish it, I just didn't think to add him. I'd named Sean Burroughs and Eric Hinske as Rookie of the Year favorites in an ESPN.com chat session a few weeks back, and built the column around those choices. For what it's worth, I'll stand by those, even with Blalock in the mix. Hinske is probably a better bet to keep and hold his job, because the situation in Toronto will allow him to go 6-for-46 and stay in The Show, If Blalock has a slump, the Rangers are unlikely to wait it out, and they have an assortment of guys--Mike Lamb, Herb Perry, Frank Catalanotto--to play third base. He's eventually going to have a fine career, but like I said yesterday, some of the best players to come out of a rookie crop don't win the Rookie of the Year Award. Blalock will be one of those. That said, he should have been in the column. I just vapor-locked. Sorry, guys. For penance, I'll watch a tape of last week's UNC-Wilmington/USC game. On second thought, maybe I'll just cut off a finger. -- Mat Olkin of Baseball Weekly has contributed to the last two editions of Baseball Prospectus. Most people know Olkin from his days at Stats, Inc., or his weekly "Mat at Bat" column in McWeekly. He knows the game, and has a sharp writing style that I find very entertaining. In addition to that work, Olkin now puts out an annual, the Baseball Examiner. In it, he provides thumbnail sketches of every major-league team, plus MLEs and comments for about 150 young major leaguers and top prospects. The Baseball Examiner is not a comprehensive resource, and it doesn't try to be. Statistics are combined, so that Adam Dunn's 2001 season is a one-line entry, not a three-line one. Additionally, all the player comments are about hitters, not pitchers, although Olkin has plenty to say about pitchers on the team pages. I highly recommend this book, not because Olkin is one of "our" guys, but because it's an entertaining piece of work, one that makes a great companion to BP. If you'd like to get a copy, check out www.matolkin.com.
-- Baseball Prospectus 2002 is now shipping -- Click here for more details!
Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by clicking here.
|
Personally, I happen to think we are in a golden age of new talent coming into baseball. Last year's rookie crop and this year's both look to me to be completely loaded.
Anyhow, I highly recommend the Baseball Prospectus website and book to any hardcore baseball fans.
Here is the table from early in it, done right:
Season League Winner Others 1995 AL Marty Cordova Shawn Green (fifth) 1994 AL Bob Hamelin Jim Edmonds (eighth) 1990 AL Sandy Alomar Jr. Robin Ventura (seventh) 1989 AL Gregg Olson Ken Griffey Jr. (third), Kevin Brown (sixth) 1986 NL Todd Worrell Barry Bonds (sixth), Barry Larkin (eighth)
The classic example of a "Rookie of the Year" who got there with his career year: Joe Charboneau.
-Eric
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.