Posted on 11/03/2026 6:02:43 AM PST by MtnClimber
As you sit down to wait for the returns tonight, here are a few things to watch for and early clues about where the night might be headed for both parties.
The long wait is over, and Election Day is here. As you sit down to wait for the returns tonight, here are a few things to watch for and early clues about where the night might be headed for both parties.
An Early House Indicator: Three Swing Seats in Virginia
As polls close on the East Coast, pay careful attention to results coming out of three key swing districts in Virginia.
In VA-01 (Cook PVI R+3), Republican incumbent Rob Wittman is taking on Democrat Shannon Taylor. In VA-02 (Cook PVI EVEN), Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans is taking on Democrat Elaine Luria, who held the seat until Kiggans defeated her in 2022. In VA-05 (Cook PVI R+6), Republican incumbent John McGuire is taking on Democrat Tom Perriello.
Cook rates VA-02 as “Lean D,” VA-01 as a toss-up, and VA-05 as “Lean R.”
The outcome in these three seats will provide a good indication about what kind of night it’s going to be for Republicans. If Kiggans loses but Wittman and McGuire hold on, it likely means that Democrats win a small majority. If Democrats defeat Kiggans and Wittman, it likely indicates a good night for Democrats and a robust majority of 15-20 seats. If all three Republicans lose, it would likely indicate a total wipeout for Republicans.
If, however, all three Republican incumbents hang on, it means the polls were dead wrong and we could be in for one of the more shocking upsets in recent political history.
An Important Republican Bulwark: Maine Senate Race
While Democrats are heavily favored in the House, they are only slight favorites in the Senate. They need to net at least four seats to win back the majority.
Currently, former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper is a double-digit favorite in North Carolina, which would be one flip. Republicans are also down in several other swing states, while polls show surprisingly competitive races even in normally deep-red states like South Carolina and Nebraska.
Maine is one of the races considered a toss-up. But Republican incumbent Susan Collins, as much as she has frustrated many conservatives by breaking with her party on key votes, is undeniably an expert political survivor. Even as Democrats have dominated statewide and federal races in Maine in recent years, Collins has always managed to avoid defeat.
This year may be her biggest test yet, but polls show a razor-thin race, with Democrat nominee Troy Jackson leading by just 1.4 percent in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average. If Collins can pull out yet another minor miracle, Republicans have to feel good about their chances of at least salvaging a 50-50 split in the Senate.
The Key GOP Flip Opportunity: Michigan Senate
Michigan has provided a surprising flip opportunity in an otherwise difficult political landscape for Republicans after Democrats nominated controversial candidate Abdul El-Sayed. RCP shows El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by 3.9 points, within the margin of error for most polls.
The race was also rocked at the last minute by news that Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost to El-Sayed in the Democrat primary, endorsed Rogers in the race. Stevens’ endorsement could prove enormously important in swaying moderate Democrat voters against El-Sayed, who has been plagued by his alarming connections to groups and individuals associated with Islamic extremism.
If Rogers can pull out a victory, it makes Democrats’ path to a Senate majority all the more difficult.
Blue Wave in the Senate: Republicans Defending Trump Country
One of the most shocking polling developments this year has been Republicans suddenly finding themselves on defense in Senate races in states that Trump carried easily in 2024 – namely Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Nebraska, and South Carolina.
These seven states will almost certainly determine who wins the majority, and how large that majority will be. Republicans are expressing confidence that the polls are wrong and Trump voters will “come home” and carry embattled nominees in most or all of these states.
Democrats, meanwhile, believe that the conditions are right for a historic wipeout that could land them a majority of 3-5 seats.
The three states in particular worth keying in on are Kansas, Nebraska, and South Carolina. If Republicans lose one or more of these states, they are in deep trouble in the Senate. If all three remain in GOP hands, however, Republicans are likely on their way to maintaining control.
A GOP Shocker in the House: Midwest Upsets
Pundits and pollsters have treated the House as a foregone conclusion. The Cook Political Report shows 222 seats rated as “Solid D,” “Likely D,” or “Lean D,” meaning that Democrats wouldn’t even have to win any toss-up or “Lean R” races to secure the 218 seats necessary for a majority.
If Republicans hope to pull off the upset, then, it will almost certainly have to come in these toss-up and “Lean D” races. While these are scattered throughout the country, a sizable chunk are in the Midwest – specifically Iowa (IA-01, IA-03), Pennsylvania (PA-01, PA-07, PA-08), and Michigan (MI-04, MI-07, MI-10). How Republicans perform here will be a bellwether for the party’s chances elsewhere.
What’s your prediction for how things will shake out when all the votes are counted? Leave a comment below and join the conversation.
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Jim
Getting ready to go vote.
The Cook Political Report is now operated by a smarmy, partisan lib named Amy Walter. Charlie Cook stepped away in 2021.
conventional wisdom is that the republicans hold the senate and lose the house.
Virginia. I don’t know. If there is going to be a blue wave anywhere...it will be in virginia. The Trump team slashed about 300k federal workers. they mostly live in virginia in nice suburban houses on 1/3 acre lots. they joined the federal government for its benefits and security.
Now they are in the cold for the first time. they are not going to like team trump.
I’ll be watching for the late night ballot dumps.
Anecdotal report: Polling place(s) looked very busy this morning for a mid-term. This is in Ohio.
Also, very interesting, and I’m not sure how this bodes for the candidates, but I felt like I saw a LOT more young people voting than usual.
If you are correct on the young people we’re toast. The young people are overwhelmingly veering back Left again this cycle.
Young men seem to be going Right and young women seem to be going Left. A lot of young voters may not indicate anything in particular.
I voted in a small town in central Florida. The person running the ballot reader was my neighbor. She said it is the busiest she has ever seen it. About 3X the number of votes usual for the time of day.
We’re heading out to vote in about an hour. Our polling place is usually deserted.
AtlasIntel (Atlas Polls) was among the most accurate pollsters of the 2024 election—often ranked #1 or near the top across independent evaluations.
I pray this is fake....but add the DNC/CPUSA voter fraud, it's not looking good for the good guys. POTUS remarks Monday seem to validate these polls.
If these are truly the results, I hope POTUS takes off the gloves and declares war on fraud (voter & financial) & illegal aliens - no holding back 'cuz it won't matter if this trend continues in 2028.
I’m resigned to believe the GOP loses the House and as such really needs to maintain the Senate or it’s a Blue Wave election.
Polls in Maine close at 8pm - that will be an early indicator if Collins can win by over 3-4%.
Ohio closes at 7:30pm local time - another key indicator.
Then the Midwest - Abdul hopefully loses by 2-3%.
Texas is a head scratcher, but polls say Talerico and that might mean trouble.
Alaska might be the decider.
I just fond the phrasing a bit strange. For example, they have the incumbent “taking on” the challenger instead of vive versa.
I just fond the phrasing a bit strange. For example, they have the incumbent “taking on” the challenger instead of vive versa.
bookmark
Does Alaska historically delay their results with days and days of mail in ballot voting? Has the usual changed since ranked choice voting there?
This makes me miss Charlie Kirk even more. He was the go-to man for election night for the last few years.
not sure
And thoughts on RCV being defeated in the ballot initiative this year?
Seems to me this is primary source of problems in Alaska.
Sorry, but that's politics. The Right has known about this sort of chicanery by some pollsters for DECADES.
They know what they need to do. If voters of any political persusasion are not going to head to the polls because of what the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter says, then that's industrial-grade stupidity.
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