My one-week out predictions

self ^ | 10/27/2026 | LS

[LS]

FWIW, based on a few years worth of studying voter registration and other data---which led me to be dead on in 2024 six months out with "Trump 312 EVs with 1.5% of the pop vote) and in 2016, before the election, with "Trump will win with between 300 and 320 EVs" (final 304), and yes, I missed in 2018 on the House---here goes: *Rs hold the senate at 52. Possible ceiling of 54. Paxton, Collins, AK seat, OH all holds. I think Rodgers wins in MI, Whatley loses NC. My long-shots are Sununu with NH and Tafoya in MN. Either could come through, but not a prediction, but . . . if either of those to come through, then I think the other Collins in GA will win. *House R 220. This is a little soft on 2-3 seats, but I did not include Miller in OH7, who is running a heckuva race despite no money due to his, er, issues. Still, the fact that he hung in and that his opponent has similar problems, may give us that seat. Currently Marcy Kaptur's seat is in trouble, but I'm not calling that one yet either. I think Feely holds AZ1, tossup on Ciscomani in CD6, but the numbers look good. I think we hold IA1, flip ME2 and hold 1 of the VA seats.

Right now, based on Seth Keshel's amazing district-by-district analysis, I have us at 212 or 213, Ds at about 211 or 212. There are truly only about 10-12 competitive "swing" seats, including 2 in PA which we should split.

House will be very close either way. No one is going to win by 20 seats. If Ds win, could be 218-217, then, gee, what if Illicit Mullah Omar is arrested and stripped of citizenship? Would that be fun? a 217 tie for several months?

I think GA will elect the R gov; Texas will return Abbott by 10; and AZ will have a nailbiter. I think enough Rs have turned out to give Biggs the win, but it will be close and they do cheat.

So far we are seeing HEAVY R turnout. Rs are ahead of their 2022/2024 positions in TX, FL, AZ, NV, and from what we get in reports, OH.

Understand that Ds made a deliberate strategy of voting early, and every single state is showing them tailing off now badly. I think IA will flip R heavy any day.

So why are the polls so far off? Two decent pollsters in 2024, and I won't name them but you know who they are, absolutely went nuts on the Iran thing and have abandoned all objectivity. But for all the others---not counting the FOUR who outed themselves as mere propaganda organs---I don't think ANY accounted for the nearly FIVE MILLION DROP in D voters since 2024: *Over 1m illegal "voters" (out of a total of 2.5m, so it could be higher) are gone from D voting rolls *Over 2-5 (hard to get a read on the top number here as Judicial Watch doesn't respond) voter roll purges of DemoKKKrats. Well, they purged dead voters (DemoKKKrats) and "missing" voters who moved or were fantasy (DemoKKKrats). So let's go with the lowest # I've been able to validate, 2m off the D's voter rolls *The D-R registration flips of over 1.5m since November 2024.

That's minimumum 4.5m, max of about 6.5m D "voters" who have simply vanished---but the polls aren't factoring that in, hence the D+10, D+13 polls again.

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TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: blowhard; elections; house; knowitall; nobodyaskedyou; predictyourmom; senate

[SunStar]

I hope you’re right!

[dfwgator]

[Dilbert San Diego]

Wow. This is a razor thin margin .

Since California takes 3 weeks to count votes, we may not know which party controls the House on election night or the day after.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

We shall see.

[cgbg]

Good post and analysis.

[Hoboto]

Collins will not win Georgia. Horrible candidate, bad campaigner and tons of baggage.

Quality matters.

[Sarah Barracuda]

I hope you are right, because the way they are talking about things on X, you would think its all over, Dems win EVERYTHING and welcome to Communism and open borders..you would think America is finished next Tuesday Im just praying for a miracle. I understand people are pissed off about gas prices, I understand people are upset that Trump didnt do everything he promised, but vote for communism for what, payback? The only ones who will pay the price is US

[fwdude]

I have a question. How do we know that Democrats are voting at higher rates?

[power2]

LS, always appreciate your insights and analysis. Glad you still share it with us on this forum. Your daily newsletter is one of my favorites as well. Keep up the good work

[Jet Jaguar]

Thanks.

[Sicon]

“Collins will not win Georgia”

Hope you’re wrong, but I can’t dispute that Collins is a weak candidate.

[Zathras]

Thanks!

[Justa]

One week from now I will vote for the same candidate I have always voted for -the one which represents my beliefs and my faith in America’s future and can take the nation there better than the other candidates.

[willk]

“I hope you are right, because the way they are talking about things on X, you would think its all over, Dems win EVERYTHING”

Hopefully it is just psych-ops. Trying to suppress the GOP vote.

[Enterprise]

Bmp!!!

[b4me]

“horrible” likely better than democrat.

[Fledermaus]

I’m going 1 +/- in the Senate for Gop. NC is -1. So I think a pickup in NH or MI or both. Possibly MN.

GOP maybe +5 in the House. I believe the redistricting in TX and FL will help. +1 seat in TN after the 9th district got changed out of mostly in Shelby County (Memphis).

[Georgia Girl 2]

I like Mike Collins and plan to vote for him but I don’t see him winning. Sadly we’re probably in for 6 more years of Assoff.

Rick Jackson will probably win the GA governor spot.

[Fury]

I hope you’re right - $5,000 would be a nice reward!