ok, but isnt’ automation and roboticization far more rapid now than in the 1990s?
FLT — from what I read, in 1990, Japan was competitive or closing in on Western and U.S. manufacturing/labor productivity levels. By 2004, the U.S.–Japan total factor productivity gap expanded sharply to roughly 79.5%, and recent data shows Japan’s labor productivity is only about 56% to two-thirds of U.S. levels - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09535310701572024
Now i’m no expert on Japan, but when I went there in 2017, they were stuck in the 1990s - they used cash everywhere, and seemed to not be computerized so much (fax machines!).
When I went to Shanghai on a short visit in 2024, it was high-tech and energetic.
i’d like them to decline, as they are moving scary fast, but I didn’t see it myself
Automation can definitely help....but it can't completely offset the effects of an aging and shrinking workforce. Nobody has ever managed that or even come close to it. Maybe at some point in the future but as for now, that remains a distant dream.
Like Europe, Japan got very good at manufacturing the old way....ie metal bashing, etc. They didn't keep up in the digital/high tech spaces. That's where America forged ahead even after not being as efficient as Japan with things like auto production. Now add in that the Japanese workforce is smaller than it used to be and you see how a country can start to really fall behind even though each worker is still quite productive.
The other thing with automation....China's is focused on manufacturing. They have a huge manufacturing surplus because their economy is geared so heavily toward exports. But what happens when the US and EU either slap massive tariffs on you or - like the US for example - simply bans your electric cars from entering their market? How much does automation help you when you can't access the market?
China's Demographics
Declining numbers: China's total employed workforce fell to around 725 million people in 2025, marking an annual decrease of roughly 9 million people as part of a downward trend that began around 2014.
Working-age contraction: The working-age population (traditionally defined as ages 16 to 59) dropped to about 61% of the total population, down from over 70% a decade earlier.
Long-term projections: Roughly 250 million Chinese workers are projected to leave the labor force by 2050, driven by the legacy of the one-child policy, a low fertility rate of around 1.09 births per woman, and a rapidly aging society.