Why do you say that?
I’ve been reading about the coming decline of China for decades and stopped paying attention about 5 years ago post covid.
Why do you think now is past the point of salvation? The demographics? Or something else?
Demographics is most of it. You need a certain level of productivity to have a certain level of lifestyle. Old people, even if they can be kept busy, will not have the level of productivity as a young person. China is running out of young people, thanks to its a child policies.
There comes a point where your ability to support the welfare state stops, because you stopped having children.
1) Demographics. First the one child policy then the total collapse of the birth rate even after the one child policy was lifted. China is already older on average than the US. It is the fastest aging society (among the major economies) in the world. Their dependency ratio is growing very fast.
2) The largest real estate speculation/debt bubble in history.....their dwarfs the size of the one in the West which caused the 2008 global financial crisis.
3) the only way to try to solve problem #2 above is to try to lean even more heavily into manufacturing and exporting their massive surplus production. But the 2 largest markets - the US and increasingly the EU now - are steadily turning more protectionist and will not allow them to dump into their markets. There are no other untapped markets anywhere near the size of those two so any suggestion that they could just export more to Africa/South America/India, etc automatically fail.
China is fine.