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I don’t think they win the senate and the house will be close.

I think it’s win/win because if they do win, they’ll impotently impeach Trump for 2 years to try to repeat 2018 and people will tire of it by 2028 and then vote them out.

If they don’t win, the DSA might split and form their own party.

That said, I wish for their complete obliteration.

The current numbers you cite look correct. However, President Trump has committed to 32 days of nationwide campaigning. In Texas, Republican ads are increasing and beginning to overcome Democrat ones. If the Iran War stays on the back burner and fuel prices begin to decline as more shipments are coming through the Persian Gulf and the Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea has been repaired, the economy card becomes less important.

The cards Republicans have to play are the culture wars card, the tougher on crime card, and the keep taxes low card. If they play them effectively, the core MAGA base will be motivated to come out to vote. Unfortunately, the 2026 version of Reagan Democrats are more motivated by economic issues and the alt-right types (Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, et. al.) have been alienated by Trump attacking Iran and his failure to go after the Democrats who tried to sabotage him, from Hillary and Obama on down. Then you have the RINO types who have been anti-MAGA from 2015 onward and who want to sabotage this Administration, e.g., Karl Rove.

It is a tough field the Republicans have to play, but barring some catastrophe in October, the GOP may not suffer a massive loss this time. As for the Senate, North Carolina is a probable loss, and Ohio, Texas, Maine, and even Kansas are iffy. There is a possible pickup in Michigan. If we go 50-50 on the four in question, we wind up with a 51-49 split.