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Posted on 09/26/2026 6:54:48 AM PDT by MtnClimber
Established parties in America and Germany face ideological insurgencies from opposite flanks. Their strategies of co-option and confrontation may determine whether they survive.
If there’s a bustle in your hedgerow, don’t be alarmed now
It’s just a spring clean for the May queen
Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run
There’s still time to change the road you’re on.
– Led Zeppelin
Well, so hope two political parties, both of which, notwithstanding the sage advice of Page and Plant, are indeed alarmed by extremist insurgencies bustling their hedgerows from different ends of the ideological spectrum and threatening to radically alter their existence and agendas. (Admittedly, there are people of yet another political party doing the same, though that is more a Reconquista. But that is for another day…)
One is a center-left party in the United States; the other is a center-right party in Germany.
Both face an existential crisis from their extreme ideological flanks, and both have undertaken a strategy of co-option to survive this challenge.
One has chosen the path of co-option. One has chosen the path of confrontation.
Which, if either, will stave off the extinction of their party as presently constituted?
The Republican establishment’s separate case studies over the years in confronting grassroots ideological insurgents with wildly varying degrees of success may well have provided an impetus for America’s Democrat Party’s strategy of co-option with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
Though overseas, Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has necessarily dealt with President Trump and his “Make America Great Again” movement. Having seen what has happened to the Republican establishment from 2016 to the present, it has likely contributed, if only in a small way, to the CDU’s strategy of confrontation toward the Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Of course, one or both parties’ strategies can morph or terminate over time. Yet, it is also true that their ideological opponents have a vote, too. What, then, are the prospects for both the Democrat Party and the CDU?
First, we head to Germany to analyze the center-right CDU’s confrontational approach to the AfD’s right-wing populism.
Spoiler Alert: it’s not going well.
In Germany, on September 6th, the CDU suffered a stunning electoral rebuke during the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt. Amid a high turnout (77 percent), the AfD garnered 44 percent of the vote and 39 seats. The state had long been a bastion of CDU support, but now only voted them 15 seats, and exit polls showed many of the new AfD supporters were former CDU voters.
Exacerbating matters, the CDU suffered a regional election loss of epic proportions. As reported by Reuters: “Merz himself described Sunday’s loss in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as a ‘disaster’ after his Christian Democrats (CDU) missed the minimum threshold to enter the regional parliament.” It is the first time the CDU failed to garner the 5 percent of the vote necessary to do so in any such state legislature.
For its part, the right-wing populist AfD finished first, winning 38.2 percent of the vote, an increase of more than 20 points from 2021. Like Saxony-Anhalt, turnout was again high at 78 percent, and once again the AfD did not win enough seats to form a government absent a coalition partner. In this case, it appears there will be enough seats to form a coalition among the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), which finished second with 35.5 percent of the vote, the Green Party and Die Linke.
Speaking of Die Linke, as Zeale News reports, the far-left party is comprised of “the descendants of the Communist Party that once ran East Germany, [and could] take power in a coalition after winning most seats” in the state of Berlin elections. It is the first time Die Linke won a state election in Berlin; it is the rise of left-wing populism fueled in large part by calls to nationalize housing, stop rent increases, expropriate sundry industries, and anti-Israel rhetoric. (Does this sound familiar, New Yorkers?)
As Zeale recounts regarding the Berlin elections, the traditional center of German politics, the CDU and the SPD (who often combine to form the governments), are being squeezed by both right-wing (AfD) and left-wing (Die Linke) populist movements:
Although Berlin’s state elections saw the CDU maintain a share of 34 seats, the party lost nearly 20 seats, marking the first Berlin election since 1990 where neither the CDU nor the SPD placed first in the election results. While Die Linke won a total of 47 seats, AfD also increased its share of seats in Berlin’s legislature by 12, for a total of 29 seats, making the AfD the third-largest party in the historically left-wing state.
Nationally, the news isn’t any better for the CDU. The federal government, in which the CDU is dominant, has a disapproval rate of 87 percent, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s approval rating is in the tank, too.
And who is presently the most popular party in Germany? Yep. The AfD is at 28 percent. (This popularity regrettably travels, as across the Atlantic many MAGA leaders and activists are naively fond of the AfD.)
Notwithstanding the current buzz, Germany remains a multi-party state. Unlike DSA (usually) or the defunct Tea Party, the AfD necessarily appears on the ballot under its own party banner. Consequently, in multi-party Germany, the AfD needs help to form a state government. If the AfD or any other party cannot combine to form one, new elections will be called.
For the CDU, this has forced a decision for the CDU to the fore—one Merz forcefully proclaimed in almost apocalyptic terms in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house: his party’s Brandmauer (firewall) will continue, and there will be no cooperation, only confrontation with the AfD.
No mainstream German party is currently collaborating with the AfD. Still, while Merz’s speech was less than subtle, it did signal a shift in the CDU’s subtle, hybrid strategy of co-option and confrontation that has failed so spectacularly in the Saxony-Anhalt election.
This strategy sought to separate the AfD voter from the party’s leadership. The CDU adopted a firmer policy on immigration and promised to enact reforms that would stimulate the sluggish German economy into a more prosperous period.
Simultaneously, the CDU sought to discredit AfD leadership by branding it as having Germany’s domestic intelligence service classify it as a right-wing extremist party.
Apparently, the CDU didn’t get the memo from the Biden administration that the injection of partisan politics by a nation’s intelligence services against a political party would only serve to enhance the standing of the victim—just ask MAGA. Compounding the problem, the CDU could never be as opposed to immigration as the AfD, and Merz’s proposed economic reforms have presently produced little in terms of prosperity.
And little in terms of successfully countering the rise of the AfD.
Their hybrid co-option-confrontation ploy having boomeranged upon them, Merz and the CDU had little option but to confront the AfD. It is early days, but the nascent steps are prudent and practical. The issue is whether they will prove effective.
The CDU opposes banning the AfD as a party. This evinces that the CDU has learned from its mistakes, but it also shows German voters that the CDU has the backbone to stand up to the AfD without resorting to political dirty tricks and shenanigans.
Also, reinforcing its firewall, the CDU can potentially force the AfD to actually govern, be it with another party’s support, in Saxony-Anhalt. For too long the AfD has been allowed to build its support on words rather than deeds. Given the paucity of the economic platform in its Manifesto for Germany: The Political Programme of the Alternative for Germany, little can be expected in terms of delivering on one of the electorate’s core concerns.
Further, if the AfD cannot form a government, it will show its inability to collaborate with other parties to accomplish its agenda. While this may initially inure to the AfD’s benefit by allowing it to play the “martyr for principle” card, ultimately it becomes a detriment in the minds of voters impatient for change.
Should another election need to be held in the state, the AfD’s number of votes and seats must increase, or the results will be perceived as evidence that the party’s momentum is stalling.
Placing the AfD at the forefront of governing failures in Saxony-Anhalt buys the CDU time at the federal and state levels to reinforce its firewall and implement its strategy of confrontation. Simply, sometimes you have to put the emperor center-stage so the people can see he wears no clothes.
Simultaneously, it gives them a second bite at the apple in Saxony-Anhalt. Granted, the CDU would face the same electoral risks as the AfD (indeed, a greater risk given the last election results), whereby its support and seats must increase or else be perceived as a party on life support.
For the CDU, proclaiming a confrontation strategy can be the beginning of a party’s rebirth—or its epitaph. And the dismal results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin evince that both German populist movements, the AfD and Die Linke, are busily engraving the CDU’s headstone.
Fundamentally, for the CDU (and its oft-times governing coalition partner, the SPD), the political problem is one of failing to articulate an aspirational vision for Germany. The current economic reforms entail real sacrifices by the populace for the sake of … an abstract “economy”? To the ears of disgruntled German voters, wasn’t this one of the key reasons past German governments allowed for massive immigration? Further, why should they sacrifice just to enrich corporations and the wealthy among them—especially when the AfD and Die Linke are there to proffer a painless path to utopia?
Proverbs teaches that “Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he.” Yet, even where there exists a vision, it has to be properly communicated to resonate, lest the people ignore it and become enthralled by siren songs from ideological extremists, who promise utopia but deliver only tyranny. To disenthrall Germany from such popular political delusions may take both another Adenauer and Röpke, but they are in short supply there and, in brutal truth, here at home, too.
Next week, we return to our shores to assess the Democrat Party’s strategy to co-opt the left-wing populism of the DSA.
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I hope the AfD is successful. But not the DSA.
“ If there’s a bustle in your hedgerow, don’t be alarmed now
It’s just a spring clean for the May queen
Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run
There’s still time to change the road you’re on.
– Led Zeppelin”
I’m seeing the tribute band tonight. I saw Zep 6 times live at MSG and in Philly.
“And as we wind on down the road...”
Good article. Thanks for posting. I haven’t heard much from Thaddeus G. McCotter in a long time.
Cool. I saw Zep once at Tampa Stadium, but only for about 3 songs before it got rained out. It was moved to the next day, but idiots in the crowd started throwing things and refused to leave the stadium so it got cancelled.
We have not heard from Thaddeus McCarter for quite a while, or am I mistaken? I always regarded him as a thoughtful intelligent person, and then he forgot to submit his registration papers for his re-election which was kind of goofy.
We have not heard from Thaddeus McCarter for quite a while, or am I mistaken? I always regarded him as a thoughtful intelligent person, and then he forgot to submit his registration papers for his re-election which was kind of goofy.
We have not heard from Thaddeus McCarter for quite a while, or am I mistaken? I always regarded him as a thoughtful intelligent person, and then he forgot to submit his registration papers for his re-election which was kind of goofy.
We have not heard from Thaddeus McCarter for quite a while, or am I mistaken? I always regarded him as a thoughtful intelligent person, and then he forgot to submit his registration papers for his re-election which was kind of goofy.
Sorry for the multipost!
Your name is your excuse.
Your name is your excuse.
No bias there eh? The CDU seems to love its foreign invaders a little too much. Hence MAGA likes the AfD stance.
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