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Mythbuster: U.S. Much Safer Than Many Peer Nations
RealClearInvestigations ^ | 9 Jul, 2926 | John R. Lott Jr.

Posted on 07/09/2026 8:09:27 AM PDT by MtnClimber

Conventional wisdom holds that the United States is the most violent and dangerous nation in the developed world. This dark view is frequently invoked by conservatives to demand stronger penalties for crimes and by progressives to argue for stronger gun laws.

At the same time, other nations point to crime as an Achilles heel of the American system. These include two peer nations with some of the most restrictive gun laws in the world – Australia and Canada. In 2025, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that “the U.S. generally sees higher violent crime rates than many other countries.” Last year, the Canadian Press similarly reported that “the number of police-reported violent crimes for every 100,000 people continue to be higher in the United States than in Canada.”

The data, however, undercuts this narrative. While the United States still leads in some categories, on the whole it has significantly less violent crime per capita than those two nations.

Regarding homicide, the most heinous crime of all, it’s true that in 2025, the U.S. murder rate was about four per 100,000 people – roughly twice Australia’s and Canada’s 2024 homicide rate. Yet it’s also true that homicides account for only a tiny fraction of violent crime. In 2024, homicides represented just 0.21% of violent crimes in the U.S., based on National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) estimates of rape/sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. Murder comprises an even smaller fraction of crimes in Australia and Canada.

Murders in the U.S. are usually highly concentrated geographically, often connected to street gang activity, and threaten only a tiny fraction of Americans. Just 2% of counties account for approximately 54% of all murders, and within those counties roughly two-thirds of killings occur within areas covering only about ten city blocks.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearinvestigations.com ...


TOPICS: Society
KEYWORDS: australia; canada; crime
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1 posted on 07/09/2026 8:09:27 AM PDT by MtnClimber
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To: MtnClimber

Canada and Australia have let in massive numbers of “migrants”. It is probably not long until their crime rates reach third-world levels.


2 posted on 07/09/2026 8:09:49 AM PDT by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; BraveMan; cardinal4; ...

3 posted on 07/09/2026 8:17:01 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (The Demagogic Party is just a collection of violent, rival street gangs.)
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To: MtnClimber

The pattern is that while the US has more murders, it actually has less crime overall than several other Western countries. Another factor to consider is that murders in the US are not randomly distributed. They are instead highly concentrated among Black inner city drug gangs. 68% of all counties in the US experience 1 or fewer murders per year. I doubt either crime or murder is similarly concentrated like that in any other Western country.


4 posted on 07/09/2026 8:20:06 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: FLT-bird
Another factor to consider is that murders in the US are not randomly distributed. They are instead highly concentrated among Black inner city drug gangs.

I agree, except for your capitalization of the word "black".

I live in a rural area where "everybody" has a gun, but the only murder I've heard about in the 13 years I've lived here was the murder of a neighbor's horse.

5 posted on 07/09/2026 8:35:30 AM PDT by libertylover (The HBM (Has Been Media) is almost all AGENDA-DRIVEN and HATE-DRIVEN, not-truth driven)
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To: MtnClimber

You can largely avoid being murdered by staying away from them.


6 posted on 07/09/2026 8:43:18 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: MtnClimber

If you remove democrat-run cities, the USA has a crime rate comparable to the safest countries.


7 posted on 07/09/2026 8:54:17 AM PDT by TheThirdRuffian (Orange is the new brown)
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To: MtnClimber

Crime can be discussed in terms of personal safety or in terms of policy effectiveness.

In both discussions the reality is local and not national.
Even in a locality, the reality changes over time. In Atlanta GA crime under Bottoms was high. Under Dickens it is low in comparison.

Crime also depends on how we define it. When a drunk white collar executive kills a pedestrian it is a tragedy. When a drunk illegal immigrant klls a pedestrian it is Murder 1.

When white collar fraud steals a $100 million of welfare mone it is not the same as when a Somali steals $10 million.


8 posted on 07/09/2026 9:12:24 AM PDT by spintreebob (m)
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To: MtnClimber

the graphs make no sense


9 posted on 07/09/2026 9:22:18 AM PDT by bigbob (We are all Charlie Kirk now)
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To: MtnClimber

The elites never have to live out their catchphrase, “Celebrate Diversity!”


10 posted on 07/09/2026 9:47:44 AM PDT by simpson96
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To: TheThirdRuffian

I’m sitting here in the ghetto pondering what it would be like to finally get a Republican mayor.


11 posted on 07/09/2026 11:39:49 AM PDT by packagingguy
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To: MtnClimber

Control for the variable “race” (black to be specific) in the statistical analysis and U.S. crime rate goes way below a lot of western countries. Do the same for math and science scores and the US climbs near the top in western countries. It’s a reality we refuse to recognize so we have no rational policy solution.


12 posted on 07/09/2026 2:35:35 PM PDT by lp boonie (Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment)
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To: bigbob

“the graphs make no sense”

- - - - -

I think the graphs are Australian crime divided by American crime, per capita, for the categories of crime listed. The numbers at the left, indicated by the graph bars, are ratios.


13 posted on 07/09/2026 3:00:16 PM PDT by Keb
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To: spintreebob; All

Crime also depends on how we define it. When a drunk white collar executive kills a pedestrian it is a tragedy. When a drunk illegal immigrant klls a pedestrian it is Murder 1.

When white collar fraud steals a $100 million of welfare mone it is not the same as when a Somali steals $10 million.


Of course both your examples can be the opposite way and are done so.

When a black youth kills a white boy, he should be let off because of “racism”. When a White police officer is present as a black criminal dies of an overdose, He goes to prison for life.

When illegal immigrants steal billions it is because they are “oppressed”.

When a citizen fails to pay their property taxes: Take their house!

All of the above are extreme cases. They should not be used to make political decisions

We need to uphold the rule of law as best we can, even if it can never be perfect.


14 posted on 07/09/2026 3:23:06 PM PDT by marktwain (----------------------)
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