Iran War Misconceptions

No one yet knows the ultimate verdict on the war, given all the economic, military, political, and strategic variables still in play. A memorandum of understanding released this week might end the war, or result in further American strikes—depending on the degree of Iranian concessions and compliance.

But in this confusing, ongoing drama, many fabrications and distortions still circulate.

The professor appears cautiously optimistic. I think everyone going full rage on this screaming the MOU is surrender needs to step back a moment and put a little more thought into this..

I have seen some fairly conservative and usually well-reasoned commentators write about this and they are losing their minds. Is it perfect, no, does it provide the best chance to date to defang Iran with limited loss of American lives, yes.

A lot of normally sane conservatives are way too emotional and irrational about this MOU and have lost the big picture. The professor also seems to think this deserves a chance and has potential to do what no one has bene able to before in making America safer and stronger.

I agree with VDH.

The best way to understand the current Iran situation is that right about the time that Trump began threatening to bomb power plants and bridges and the IRGC and Basij began trucking women and children to the sites to act as human shields.

At his point the Trump team realized that they were no longer simply in a war with terrorist fanatics, they were dealing with a nation wide hostage crisis in Iran.

The IRGC could care less about the fate of the Iranian people or how badly the people on the streets were suffering.

In fact, the IRGC saw a propaganda upside for the Islamic State if their military actions created a humanitarian disaster for the population in Iran. The IRGC also calculated that the worse things got in Iran, the easier it would be for the IRGC to maintain control in Iran.

Realizing this, the Trump team shifted from military air strike tactics to a modified version of hostage negotiating strategy tailored to dealing with homicidal maniacs holding an entire nation hostage in Iran.

The MOU can be best understood in this context of a hostage negotiations.

When the hostage takers demand a dozen Hawaiian pizzas with double anchovies on top, a case of Pabst Blue Ribbon beer, five gallons of pistachio ice cream, a basket of Kentucky Fried Chicken and a helicopter to fly them to Mexico you give them what they a want and neglect to tell them that the Mexican border is 1200 miles away and the helo only has a range of 600 mile because the goal is to buy time and get them away from the hostages before they kill everyone and blow up an entire city block.

If you read the the MOU in this context a lot of the inexplicable stuff in the MOU makes a lot more sense.

Saying the text of the MOU is garbage is not being overly emotional, it’s understanding English. Emotionalism is a straw man argument.

Personally, my hope is that Trump doesn’t follow it and I have no idea how things will actually go so I keep my fingers crossed.

So, since I’m not psychic, I read the MOU and see it as junk and say so.

So let’s pick one item for now- why should the US facilitate that 300B rebuild fund? Can’t Iran work that out on it’s own?

Ping! Out to the Victor Davis Hanson list

The key to negotiating an end to the war is to always remember that Iran’s regime—its theocrats, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, military leaders, and elected officials—has no history of telling the truth or abiding by any agreement it signs.
So the only means of enforcing concessions is to use disproportionate force each time Iran inevitably violates the terms of the armistice.

A good article to read. Prof Hanson is a realist that seeks the best for our nation. Worth jumping over to read.

FR Index of his articles: Victor Davis Hanson on FR

Town Hall: Victor Davis Hanson on Town Hall

American Greatness: Victor Davis Hanson on American Greatness

His website: Victor Davis Hanson The Sword of Perseus

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I agree with most of VDH's article, as usual. But I respectfully disagree with his statement "The Strait was open because an appeased Iran had no reason to close it".

Was Iran leaving the Strait open? Not as I remember it. Remember the countless times before the Iran War that Iran would seize or harass cargo ships, making the price of oil go up? Remember the 10 or so American sailors captured as hostages in the US Navy's embarrassing moment in the Obama years? Remember the capturing of British sailors?

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