There is mucho oil still in the ground in Texas and the Dakotas…and plenty of oil in the Gulf. If there is an oil shortage, why are there not more drills in the ground.
This isn't about how much oil is in the ground or being drilled. It's about how much is in the production delivery pipeline and the time necessary to refine and distribute it.
Interrupt that supply chain and it takes more than a year to rebuild. As our stocks deplete holding up the rest of the world, that situation worsens considerably, starting somewhere between July and August this year. That does NOT bode well for November.