Posted on 05/12/2026 5:40:53 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, is 2.6% higher to near $98.00 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The oil price gains sharply amid growing doubts that the temporary ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran, announced in early April, would last long.
Tensions between the US and Iran have renewed as US President Donald Trump stated, on Monday, that Iran’s proposal was “stupid”, adding, “Ceasefire is on life support.”
The renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran permanent resolution has prompted fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to the US inflation to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook.
The US CPI report is expected to show that the headline inflation rose to 3.7% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.3% in March.
WTI US Oil trades higher at around $98.00, maintaining a constructive near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at roughly $95.54. The price location above this dynamic support suggests that dips remain supported, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 54 keeps a modestly positive tone without yet venturing into overbought territory.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA near $95.54, where a break would hint at a deeper corrective phase toward $90.00. Looking up, the psychological level of $100 will be the key resistance zone, followed by the April 30 high of $107.35.
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Rates are sticky since the release, just slightly higher, but the data don't provide an accommodative setting for Warsh to advocate rate cuts.
US consumers are paying about $30/more per barrel and the US uses about 17 milion barrels a day.
That’s $510 million/day, the cost of several brand-new tankers filled with oil.
Congress could authorize Trump to buy tankers stranded in the Gulf, fill them with crude, and have US Navy sailors run them through the Strait. A helicopter could follow each tanker in transit in case the crew needs to come off.
These transits could be timed (wind from the south) so spilt oil would wash ashore on Iranian beaches.
The steering might be locked so a flaming tanker heads towards Iran.
The tanker insurance market isn’t functioning for the Gulf. Bypass it!
Congress could authorize Trump to have another 60 days if any US vessel is attacked while passing through the Strait of Hormuz or if an Iranian vessel, missile or torpedo enters the waters or airspace claimed by either Oman or the UAE within two miles of a US vessel.
The Democrats will bring up any Republican Congressional failure to back action to bring down gas prices.
WTI over $101.
There is a stronger case for increasing rates now, rather than lowering them. Inflation is now almost double the Fed’s 2% target (which is ridiculous on its own).

No doubt this is in California - where I dread looking at the gas prices in the morning...nothing under $6.00/gallon locally - while Newsom refuses to suspend the state gas tax, highest in the nation.
All taxes in CaCaLand go into a bucket that is, at earliest possibility, skimmed by the DNC.
ALL
Newscum is in trouble since his plan to get gasoline was by buying from his CCP buddies. But, that oil/gas was Iranian. That is part reason why the DNC opposes DJT — they are owned by CCP.
Of course - Newsom is getting ready to “retire” to his new, $9M dollar mansion in a tony area - to launch a disastrous run for POTUS.
Fake. Diesel is always more expensive than gas.
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