OK, sorta agree. But considering transportation cost would they really come out ahead?
Since the supply and demand are no different than before the war, it seems to me to be only a distribution channel disruption.
To illustrate my point, let’s take corn instead for an example. The United States imports negligible amounts of corn, importing only $27 worth million in February 2026, primarily from Canada and Turkey. So let’s say truck drivers in Turkey go on strike and no corn can be shipped.
In this scenario, it’s clear that Turkish users of corn would be impacted and prices would skyrocket but it would have no effect on US corn prices because we produce all the corn we need and have extra that we export. Turkey might have to pay a premium to get some of it but that would be their problem, not ours.
Yeah, no doubt. The premiums are around 10 bucks a barrel right now between WTI[us benchmark]$89.5 and Brent Crude[Asia] $98.