Here is a blatant test of the ground game of each side.
It is not a question of how many people agree with each side.
It is a question of how many voters can each side get to actually take the time to vote.
Historically MAGA sees their role as to sit in front of the screen, or attend a rally, and cheer or boo.
The other side sees their role to knock on doors of friends, neighbors and strangers and “sell” them on voting their leftist way.
I agree with your take.
And, if it’s close, the Socialists will hold up the results while they “find” more voters.
Do you work to GOTV?