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Posted on 03/23/2026 3:15:17 AM PDT by dennisw
The dollar was poised for a rebound on Monday as retaliatory threats escalated in the Middle East crisis, damping risk sentiment and boosting demand for haven assets.
The greenback on Friday closed out its first weekly decline since the start of the war in Iran, as the effect of surging oil prices on inflation prompted central banks to turn hawkish. The Australian dollar slid in early trade as equity markets looked to open lower.
Hopes for an off-ramp to hostilities in the Gulf region dimmed over the weekend, with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to strike Iran's electricity grid and Tehran vowing to hit back at the energy and water systems of its neighbours.
"The market's going with the idea that those countries and economies that enjoy a positive supply shock from energy are likely to perform better than those that are suffering from a negative supply shock," Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank, said on a podcast.
"So you're seeing the euro and the yen struggling to perform. And again, if this conflict proves long-lasting, you would think that those are the currencies that are likely to suffer a bit more."
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.03% to 99.53. The euro slid 0.06% to $1.1563.
The yen rose 0.06% to 159.11 per dollar, and sterling weakened 0.06% to $1.3331.
Trump issued his latest threat to Iran on Saturday evening, less than a day after signaling the U.S. might be considering winding down the conflict. Iran pledged retaliatory strikes on infrastructure in nearby countries and that the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane for oil would remain closed.
The prospect of tit-for-tat strikes on civilian infrastructure in the region threatens the livelihoods of millions of people who rely on desalination plants for water. Air raid sirens sounded across Israel from the early hours of Sunday, warning of incoming missiles from Iran.
Before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began in late February, investors had priced in two cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. But they now largely believe one cut is a distant prospect, and other major central banks are turning more hawkish.
The Fed left rates on hold as expected last week, but Chair Jerome Powell said it was too soon to know the scope and duration of the economic impact from the war.
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US Dollar up since start of Iran war
It’s not spurring demand to a “haven.” It’s going up because you need dollars to buy more expensive oil.
all bets off now with DJT tweet minutes ago about suspension of action ag power plants due to ongoing talks...
Interest rates will rise with increased demand for greenbacks.
Will not be good for stocks in the short term but represents a buying opportunity?
You might be right. Why not use Yuan to buy oil? iirc Iran Was using yuan pricing for its crude. Most went to China.
BRICS is sinking like a Brick ?
The rally will be checked if Trump discourages the holding of dollars — by using the Fed to force interest rates down.
That is correct. But now if those buyers need to buy oil from other sources they will need to pay in dollars. So that pressure is added on top of the price increases. Now toss in the bond pressure and it all builds on each other.
When this ends, that pressure will pop. The dollar will weaken. Congress will fund $200 billion in new spending (extra spending) and gold will rise.
NO, the dollar (DXY) drops when oil drops
This war is USA + Israel + US Dollar VS Iran + China + BRICs + Chinese Yuan currency. One factor in this war is to keep the USD the top dog reserve currency. To keep oil priced in USD, not in Chinese Yuan.
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