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Posted on 02/10/2026 6:25:36 AM PST by MtnClimber
As the United States advances toward the 2030 Census, a structural political realignment is quietly but relentlessly taking shape.
It is not being driven by campaign slogans or cable news theatrics, but by population movement, economic performance, and policy outcomes that are increasingly difficult to ignore. Together, these forces are placing Democrats on the brink of a profound loss of electoral power in the 2030s, one that could permanently reshape the national political map.
Fresh population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau have been analyzed by redistricting experts. The facts indicate a clear and persistent migration away from Democrat strongholds, toward Republican-leaning states in the South and West. When translated into congressional representation, this movement has enormous consequences.
Under multiple projection models, states that reliably vote Republican are positioned to gain House seats and Electoral College votes after 2030. Meanwhile, long-dominant Democrat bastions steadily lose clout.
In one model developed by Carnegie Mellon University redistricting scholar Jonathan Cervas, Texas and Florida are each projected to gain four House seats. Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Utah, and Idaho each gain one. Meanwhile, California, New York, and Illinois collectively lose eight seats, with additional losses in Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.
A parallel estimate from the American Redistricting Project is slightly more conservative but reaches the same fundamental conclusion: electoral power is shifting decisively away from blue states and toward red ones.
This matters because House seats determine Electoral College votes. When the math is applied to presidential elections, the implications are stark.
CNN analyst Harry Enten demonstrated that if current population trends hold through 2030, Democrats would lose seven House seats nationally while Republican-leaning states gain seven. Under those adjusted figures, a Democrat presidential nominee could secure every traditional blue state—plus Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—yet still fall short
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
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If we don’t count illegal immigrants in the census then democRATs are in even bigger trouble.
Dems will do just fine, unless nationwide voter ID is established, and electronic voting machines are banned. Then they will never win another national election.
"...This is why the 2026 midterms loom so large.
Democrats are staring directly at a narrowing window of power. If these demographic and economic trends persist into the early 2030s, the party faces a structurally hostile Electoral College and a House map tilted against it for a generation. That fact raises the stakes for November’s midterms dramatically.
History suggests parties confronted with existential decline do not retreat quietly.
With control of Congress, Democrats would possess the ability to stall legislation, obstruct budgets, block appointments, and paralyze governance. They would wreak havoc and pull out every stop to derail Trump’s administration, along with the Republican brand, as the 2028 presidential election cycle begins. Any fool can see that rank lawfare, procedural warfare, and scorched-earth obstruction become more likely when long-term prospects dim.
This is no exaggeration. It is tactical behavior for a party, specifically the blue one, that understands what the numbers are signaling...."
If this is an inexorable trend, comparable to the tightening of a python's coils, the Left isn't going to just surrender and go into the night.
They are going to bring the Republic down around them, in the same fashion they are trying to bring Minnesota down around them.
...and unless Republican voters get up off their butts and go out and vote. We cannot take anything for granted.
I just sent a message to my crappy RINO Senacurr, Todd Young, to let him know how pizzed I am at his not wanting to vote for the SAVE ACT.
I am totally sick of these people. McConnell RINOs.
If the SCOTUS strikes down mandatory majority Black house districts and if they allow the census to count only citizens and not illegal aliens, each of those would be an absolute body blow to the Democrat party. Both of them combined would be a near extinction level event. The party would have to swing dramatically to the Right to even be viable going forward.
That’s why Trump is calling for a mid-term convention. He’s ahead of the curve and wants to go for the Big Bang in his final 2 years while bragging he’ll run and win for the 4th time.
Trump wont be in office in 2030, and if a Democrat is they will apply formulas that count missed people and whatever it takes to shift the numbers towards them.
Does he even give a reason?
It never dawns on them that their abandoning of morals, embrace of corruption, disregard for the nation’s good and turning their collective back on God makes them unfit and unworthy to rule America - or even a school crosswalk.
Now that they’re attempting to overthrow legitimate government they need to be treated as the traitors and criminals they’ve devolved to; and the Republicans who’ve succumbed to their siren call of corruption especially need to be made examples of.
Trump wont be in office in 2030, and if a Democrat is they will apply formulas that count missed people and whatever it takes to shift the numbers towards them.”
Surely you’re not suggesting that Democrats would ever rig the Census, because that simply can’t happen. Oh wait...
Still, all of this “WEE GUNNA WINN BIGG!” crap which relies on the 2030 Census is WAY premature even if the numbers do shake out as expected.
It’s like whenever some “blue” state (IL, CA, NY, etc.) loses a House seat, some folks get all giddy because FO’ SHO’ it’s going to be a Democrat seat that gets erased.
Perhaps so — except for all those times when that expectation turned out to be exactly wrong.
If Massachusetts loses a seat, or Rhode Island (which IS going to lose one) then that’s different because there aren’t any GOP congressmen to lose. Everywhere else.... count those chickens in advance at your own risk, because a lot of them never do hatch.
Every Presidential election, the Democrats start out with half the Electoral Votes they need without having to lift a finger.
That’s right.
I couldn’t agree more.
Doesn’t matter, they’ll win because they’re on a 24/7 lying rampage of lies to go after Trump..and most Americans are too stupid to realize they’re embracing communism and their demise.
We’ve lost every special election recently by a wide margin, even districts that Trump won by double digits. This is fantasy land.
ping
We are so naive don’t you know that if the Democrats take power in 2028 they are going to further rig the census?
Besides they will have let in 30 million more illegals by 2030.
“Every Presidential election, the Democrats start out with half the Electoral Votes they need without having to lift a finger.”
It’s way more than half. And the GOP does too.
For this decade:
If the Democrat candidate wins every state that Democrats normally win, he/she/it will receive 226 electoral votes from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine (3 EV out of 4), Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska (1 EV out of 5), New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington.
If the GOP candidate wins every state that Republicans normally win, he will receive 235 electoral votes from Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine (1 EV out of 4), Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (4 EV out of 5), North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
I’m generously counting North Carolina as “automatic” for the GOP, BTW. It’s really a swing state that happens to do the right thing presidentially.
The swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin account for 77 EV at this time, and they are the states which currently determine the overall outcome.
The main reason to be giddy about the 2032 presidential election is that IF the population trends continue then Rat states like CA will lose EV and GOP states like TX and FL will gain them. The House of Representatives may not reflect that change as much as the hopium addicts wish, but the Electoral College will improve for the GOP and make it that much easier for Republicans to get to 270.
Unless Texas flips, in which case none of the above matters.
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