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To: griffin

That’s hardly a case of sensationalism. The area of greatest impact simply moved a bit, away from the poster, with an increase in the snowfall forecast to their north, and a decrease for them.

Ditto in a sense for us, but in the other direction. The original forecast was for a once-in-5 years event. Make it 10 years now. The forecast could still be a bust, but the models are all very close, now. History is very clear on that.

I wouldn’t call myself even an amateur forecaster, but, the basics here pretty clearly indicate an unusually heavy snowfall for this region, somewhere in this region. All the basic ingredients look strong: Moisture, cold, winds, and lift. Almost certainly there will be a few un-necessary deaths of people unprepared, etc. :-(


89 posted on 01/22/2026 3:07:30 PM PST by Paul R. (Old Viking saying: "Never be more than 3 steps away from your weapon ... or a Uriah Heep song!" ;-))
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To: Paul R.
I witness sensationalism all the time. Weather model output is only as good as data input. Throw in the need to make money and attract viewers...and 50% of the time you get nuttin.

Take N. Idaho for instance. ALWAYS calling for huge snows up here in the mountains, near term forecasts and long term forecasts. hit rate of 30%. I tend to take them seriously and prepare. I'm just aware of the reality that they work for services that need viewers to make money.

But, I do appreciate your optimism of meteorological science.

BTW, we have like 3 years yet to live....due to global warming and such. There's separate load of weather BS.

90 posted on 01/22/2026 4:53:28 PM PST by griffin (When you have to shoot, SHOOT; don't talk. -Tuco)
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