Germany turns away suspected Russian shadow fleet tanker from Baltic Sea

Germany turned away a Russian-linked oil tanker from entering its territorial waters in the Baltic Sea this week, marking the first known instance of a European country blocking a vessel in Moscow's shadow fleet, Bloomberg reported Jan. 16. The Aframax-class tanker, identified by the name Arcusat, abruptly changed course earlier this week as it neared German waters, instead rerouting north toward Russia's Arctic coast,… …

Shipping records indicate the tanker was delivered last year from a Chinese shipyard, though databases disagree on the flag it is sailing under, with some listing Tanzania and others Cameroon. The vessel also reportedly appeared under a provisional name before disappearing from maritime registries.

The sanctions are gradually but inexorably tightening around Russia. Sale of oil to China is reduced and the sale of oil to India is markedly off. More, the dollar value of those sales has been substantially reduced.

The drone and missile attacks on deep Russian infrastructure, especially oil refineries and shipping facilities continues to damage the Russian economy and its warmaking capacity. For example, Russia had suspended the sale of gasoline to foreigners, denoting a shortage that forces the Russians to choose between revenue to sustain the war economy and shortages at home, probably generating insurrections.

Meanwhile, Russian aerial attacks on Ukrainian facilities continue unabated, causing intended effects, plunging countless numbers of Ukrainians into darkness and unheated dwellings in the dead of winter. The Russian attacks are indiscriminate, or actually quite discriminating, intending to punish civilians and break the Ukrainian will to resist.

So these two nations are in a foot race to avoid exhaustion before their enemy. Russian weakness is that it has been exposed as a pathetic, corrupt and feckless conventional warmaking foe, on a path to bankruptcy. Ukrainian weakness comes from its limits of manpower which to some degree they have compensated for with ingenious innovations in drone warfare.

At this time of American abandonment, Europeans, whom many here ignorantly accuse of fecklessness, have manned up and supplied Ukraine with money and material with which to wage their valiant fight for survival. The Ukrainians themselves have developed missiles and drones at scale that are on the cutting edge and have changed the nature of warfare forever. They have proven that they fight well above their weight.

The Trump administration, in contrast, has traduced Ukraine, its president, stopped providing weapons, threatened to withhold vital intelligence, and converted to a war profiteering role by selling arms for use in Ukraine. It is time this administration provided Ukrainians with Tomahawk missiles to disrupt Russia's oil patch and force Russia to the table.

All that being said, the administration deserves credit for tightening the sanctions and especially for seizing tankers in Russia's shadow fleet. These moves will hasten Putin's willingness to negotiate in good faith as his treasury drains and even his manpower reserves diminish to the point of political resistance.

As the structures around Putin tighten, the danger for him personally increases, the danger to us of a nuclear spasm increases as well. That risk must be borne or we will be forever victims of nuclear blackmail

A Ukrainian musical response to your suggestion.

This was written and performed before the Russian invasion, BTW. Listen closely to the lyrics. This sounds like aq very determined people, no?

Million days and nights before
When only tarpans ruled this world
Our nomad fathers took it in their hands
Warm from coddling sun by day
Cooled by sea, breezing by nights
It is loved so hard that our heart just lights

No one can take our land from us, it is our home
And no one can decide for us, leave us all alone
We will hold arms to death until the last of us stands still
We will destroy and crush all foes, we'll shout, "Alğa" and kill

Violet lilacs fill the woods
Meadows full of grass and fruits
Mountain peaks of limestone pierce the blue-blue sky
Stormy waves crash on the rocks
Grapes entwine the antic scree
How can one not love this land of sun and sea?

How dare you godless bastards step on my land?
How dare you touch my daughters and sons?
This will be your last steps, unless you turn
Put your two-headed eagle into your ass and run

Meanwhile, from the Military Summary Blog:

“The situation is getting worse and worse. And first, let’s talk about the Odessa region. According to information we have, Odessa is without power. A power facility in Odessa was struck by the Russian army overnight. The consequences of the strike are being investigated.

The city has been experiencing a blackout for several weeks. Amid prolonged outages in Odessa, residents of buildings without power continue to block streets. People are taken to the roadway demanding that power be restored. The blockades are causing conflicts with drivers who are unable to pass through the blockade areas.

But when talking about the city of Kiev, there are much more problems. There are problems with electricity, heat, water, and with frost. The mayor of Kiev, Klitschko, called on Kiev residents to leave the city due to the energy crisis.”

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