That misses the recurrent reality. Russia is losing and in the long term has lost. T e damage to the Russian economy will take at least ten years to rebuild.
The nightly drone destruction of oil refineries, pipeline strong points, railroads. and various critical military manufacturing capabilities is destroying the Russian economy and ability for the armies in the field to wage war.
At will, Ukraine drones can strike the Kremlin. Russia has no effective means to prevent such a strike.
Aside from the loss of fuel to support the logistics, the railroads and bridges are being damaged at an ever increasing rate that severely slows and stops the already inadequate Russian military logistics system.
Time favors the aggressor and the aggressor is now Ukraine
You are right, “Russia is losing and in the long term has lost.”
Russia’s woman central banker has tried repeatedly to warn him. In fact she may be one of the few people who actually tries to tell him the truth. But he is riding the tiger, and is still trying to figure out how to get off without being eaten. His latest move has been to tell her to reduce loan interest rates to 10%, probably about half of their current rate. He has killed a lot of his laboring force, and much of the rest is working in the 40%+ portion of the economy engaged in the higher paid defense industries; except that Zelensky is unemploying a lot of them, and with longer range missiles and drones will unemployment even more as the new year advances. Hardly a wise time to borrow money to start new business.
In addition to the factors you mention, the various Stans and Azerbaijan are beginning to look to Turkey for their future prosperity. When I saw a large map the other day I was surprised to see that Kazakhstan is more than 3 times the size of Ukraine. Who knows how many resources besides oil they may have. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are currently cooperating on developing a pipeline that completely bypasses Russia.
Who knows what deals Zelensky and Erdogan may have arranged regarding Crimea. Crimea was early ruled by the Crimean Khanate which had broken off from the Golden Hoard. Eventually the Khanate came under alliance and a degree of vassalship of the Ottoman Empire, for over 3 centuries, until Russia’s Catherine the Great won it in the battle with the Ottomans around the same time the US won its war with England. The Ottomans had complete control of the lower coast of Crimea, but the Khanate had more control in the north of Crimea and in their relations with the other Khanates and rulers to the north of Crimea.
The Stans and Caucasus countries were mostly under Russian rule and misrule for several centuries. When Russia fell apart in 1991, they along with Ukraine were quick to declare their independence and establish their own governments. The current weakness of Russia makes them even more protective of their independence from Russia, as well as interest in their Muslim origin. Russia won two Chechen wars, but if things get bad enough, the Chechens may fight again. Various oblasts (Russian states) have populations that are getting sick of how Russia treats them. If Russia has another 1991, it may shrink still further.
China is paying attention to the Siberian area as well. China is not happy with the development of petroleum resources promised to China by Russia. Siberians of various ethnicities are not happy with how Moscow has treated their fighting age men. Whether various things will change, even without the severity of a 1001 collapse, bears watching. For Putin it is another big worry.
So many things going wrong could worry a man to death, as Zelensky has pointed out.