Posted on 12/28/2025 4:32:24 AM PST by Libloather
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that Americans will see "gigantic" refund checks in the upcoming filing season, thanks to tax cuts in President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
Bessent, who also serves as the acting commissioner of the IRS, made the remark during an appearance on the "All-In Podcast." The treasury secretary told the hosts that the tax provisions in the act, which Trump signed in July, applied retroactively to the beginning of the year, and because most workers did not change their withholdings, many can expect sizable refunds in 2026.
"I can see that we’re gonna have a gigantic refund year in the first quarter because working Americans did not change their withholdings," Bessent told the "All-In Podcast" hosts. "I think households could see, depending on the number of workers, $1,000- $2,000 refunds."
Bessent's prediction echoes that of the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax policy nonprofit. The group said in a Dec. 17 report that "refunds will be larger than typical in the upcoming filing season because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s (OBBBA) tax cuts for 2025."
The foundation reported its estimate that the OBBBA reduced individual taxes by $144 billion for 2025, adding that outside estimates suggest that up to $100 billion of that could go to higher tax refunds for Americans. While not everyone will see a massive jump in their refunds, the Tax Foundation said that the savings from the OBBBA could push average refunds up by up to $1,000.
"But because the IRS did not adjust withholding tables after the law passed, workers generally continued to withhold more taxes from their paychecks than the new law required. As a result, instead of gradually receiving the benefit of the tax cuts through higher take-home pay during the year...
(Excerpt) Read more at foxbusiness.com ...
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Thanks for posting.
Politicians are masters of “Over promise, under deliver”. I’ll wait and see.
Are the new 1040’s out yet? I found some draft copies in PDF but that’s about it.
So instead of owing over $7k to send to the Somalis and/or other countries we’ll only owe $6k. pfft
I keep thinking about how all this “refund” business aligns with the huge amount of our national debt. The debt seems to be of little concern to our politicians. Just the interest on this debt must be enormous. What about this you geniuses who are responsible for the state of the union? I am just a retired person living on S.S. & I have no personal debt except the usual monthly bills. Of course I live in an older house, drive an old car, eat many meals out of a box or bag, don’t take any trips, etc. What’s going on here?
“Refund” checks are a scam based just on how much you set to contribute during the year.
And in 2026, $1-2K isn’t giant for much of anything.
Trump will give everyone $50...
“What’s going on here?”
It’s the Uniparty in action. To borrow a common expression, “All show and no go.” One will note that the debt limit once reached will ALWAYS go up with a little bluster and noise but the fake parties work together on this without fail.
“Politicians are masters of “Over promise, under deliver”. I’ll wait and see.”
The laws are in effect - I KNOW that I will be getting about 2K extra back and will have to lower the taxes taken out of my military pay account which I use as a tax balancer to try to make it so I owe between $100 - $150 each year instead of getting a “refund”.
I see some perennial P and M’s (Pi$$ers and Moaners) couldn’t help but to P and M over good news. We’re retired and out tax load is going down close to $200/month - not a huge amount but it’s better than what we had.
And don’t forget Somalian’s in Minnesota... They’ll be in line for these cash handouts too, just like they always are.
I see some perennial P and M’s (Pi$$ers and Moaners)
…
Well trebb, unfortunately we’ve been infiltrated by them. So much so, that we’re losing good quality individuals and of course, losing the donations that go with them. This isn’t because Jim passed away, may God rest his soul, it was happening long before. Chris has a tall order meeting FR $ targets. Without changes, FR will cease to exist. Oh, and get rid of some of the blatant racists around here while we’re at it.
The “All-In” podcast is excellent. You can find it on Iheartradio.
that “gitantic tax refund” does NOT compute using TurboTax or online tax estimation programs.
Many of the socalled tax savings provisions are structured to peter out for any real taxpayers (above poverty level). Thus, they are merely more far leftist, communistic income redistribution provisions.
Some of the socalled tax savings provisions are only very temporary, too.
In short, seeing will be believing but ... again, aside from some in the very lowest income strata, bless them, there appears to be precious little in the new tax law that could possibly be considered a serious income tax reduction. (And of course, refunds can be the result of over=withholding too....hey, anyone here recall that:
1. we USA citizens were promised that the federal income tax would only apply to the “robber barons” (owners of steel, railroad, banks) and that the “average working man will never pay a thin dime in federal income tax!”??????
2. federal income tax withholding was implemented under FDR as he prepared USA to enter WW2. It was stated to be a TEMPORARY measure to accelerate federal revenue collections to better enable the military buildup.
what we need now is to get RID of the fed income tax, or at least slash it way, way down.... as well as mass-simplify it
fair tax? flat tax? shift over to tariffs like supported USA for the first couple hundred years of our once-great nation?
The fed income tax is a tremendous burden on our economic productivity, competitiveness as a nation, and on our standard of living
I’m in the same boat, pretty much. We don’t own a home, but we do rent. What are us retirees going to get out of it….
Unless you actually pay taxes, in which case you get nothing.
The 1% of Americans who bear almost 50% of the tax burden see nothing.
Cloward-Piven.
By the time carious restrictions are met, people will owe more. Just watch. Polidiots over promise and under deliver.
What refund?
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