This is a ridiculous piece.
Dems are FAR ahead of Reps on generic ballot polling. Redistricting is a push at best. Two dozen non-redistricted blue and purple state Reps are clearly for the chop, and will consume $200 million of funding just to hold half those seats.
Dan Goldman, Ritchie Torres, the Mayor of Evanston who had the nod to replace Schakowsky and a handful of other Dem supporters of Israel in very liberal districts will face primary challenges but that’s actually bad for us, as the strong pro-Israel money is now Rep-leaning and the $50 million those guys will spend would have mostly gone to us.
The current polls are totally irrelevant.
The mid terms will be determined by events yet to happen
1. The AtlasIntel poll I referenced above is the only one showing Rats with THAT big of a lead. We know it's an outlier; but we don't KNOW (but surely wish) that it's wrong.
Other polls are mostly in the D+4 to D+6 range, which still translates into the GOP losing House control if those polls translate into votes. In the last GOP House disaster (2018) the generic polls were almost exactly right.
2. Redistricting right now is merely a push at best -- not counting Virginia which will cost the GOP at least 2 seats -- and it didn't help that Indiana RINOs punted (Kansas RINOs are doing the same, BTW).
From Indianalysis:
"The redistricting effects of Texas (R) and California (D) will cancel each other out, or come close to doing so; North Carolina (R) and Utah (D) also may be a net-zero. Ohio will likely end up with a 10-5 GOP advantage, no change from the current situation. Missouri's revised 5th Congressional District is going to be about R+8, an easy GOP pickup from the existing Democrat in CD-5. That makes the current aggregate redistricting score probably +1 for the GOP in 2026, with some variation depending on the overall demeanor of the election. If there is some "blue" wave, which should be greatly expected as things stand now, then any minor redistricting advantage accruing to the Republicans would be swamped by a general swing to the left overall.
Republican-controlled Kansas was going to redistrict before the 2026 midterms but they are pulling an "Indiana" and chickening out for the same reason as Indiana -- a lack of RINO support for picking up a House seat from a Democrat. Democrats are going to gain at least two seats in Virginia when that gerrymander is put into place, and large Rat-infested states such as New York and Illinois are looking to screw Republicans there even harder than they already have. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is looking to have his state mimic Texas; he believes a new map could oust 5 Democrats from the Florida delegation and make it 25-3 in favor of the GOP. That sounds extremely unlikely, but a gain of even one or two seats would be helpful."