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Apple is doomed. Well, at least that's what my timeline would have you believe because over the past two weeks, an unprecedented number of executive departures has sent tech pundits into collective panic with comments across social media proclaiming that the company is in free fall, that Tim Cook's era is ending in chaos, and that this executive exodus signals something deeply wrong at Apple Park. Well, I'm here to tell you that they're wrong. Not because Apple's perfect. If you know anything about me, you know I don't believe that. But because what we're witnessing, it's not dysfunction, it's succession planning. And if you understand how corporate structure actually works, what's happening right now is not only expected, but necessary.
Now, I know what you're thinking. How do you understand corporate structure, you holding idiot? You've literally never had a real job. And you make YouTube videos to pimp out your new merch available discounted for a limited time at Copeland Supply. Well, because I'm Quinn Nelson, and I graduated from one of America's top business schools with really good grades. That's why.
First, a brief acknowledgement. Tim Cook, by any conventional measure, is one of the greatest CEOs of all time. Not just in tech, anywhere. I mean, it was under his tenure that Apple became the first company to reach a trillion dollar market cap. Then the first to reach two trillion, then three trillion. Nvidia beat them to four, but they weren't far behind. More than 90% of Apple's total market value can be directly attributed to the Cook era. Net income as a percentage of revenue has steadily increased. The Mac has gone from an afterthought to best-in-class hardware thanks to Apple Silicon. AirPods, if spun out into their own company, would be a Fortune 500 entity. Apple Watch dominates the wearables market and has for years. And love or hate the Vision Pro, it represents at least a genuine attempt at computing's future. You really think that the guy at the head of all of this is going to just fumble the ball at fourth and goal? No. Tim Cook loves football.
Here's the thing about executive turnover. It's normal. It happens constantly at every major corporation, and it rarely makes headlines unless you're Apple, where every sneeze from Cupertino becomes a five alarm fire for the tech press. Let's go over these recent departures one by one because really all but one of them are normal. They're part of the plan.
Starting with Kate Adams, Apple's general counsel since 2017. She's announced her intentions to retire at the end of next year. This will put her total time served at just over nine years, slightly longer than her predecessor and longer than any other CLO since Jobs's 1997 return. And it's also notable that she is 61, meaning that both her length of tenure and her overall age exceed the industry average. The same is true of Lisa Jackson, VP of environment, policy, and social initiatives, except for she's been serving for 12 years and her position is being dissolved entirely with responsibilities to be redistributed to the new CLO as well as COO Sab. At 63, she's also retiring. These departures aren't at all dissimilar from Jeff Williams or Dan Riccio or Luca Maestri, three other executives who recently retired in the past couple of years after decades of time at Apple. Longtime executives leaving at retirement age. It's not news. It's just demographics.
The only reason there's hoopla behind these gals is because of the three other names. First, we've got John Gianandrea (JG), who's also retiring. In fact, he's already off the leadership page, which should tell you a little something. If that name sounds familiar, well, it's because he's the AI chief that faced public execution in the press earlier this year due to his team's inability to ship promised Apple intelligence features. We still don't have them. A bombshell report from The Information painted a picture of organizational chaos, parallel development tracks with the Veriki software engineering group, finger-pointing between divisions, and worst of all, keynote demos that allegedly surprised Apple's own engineers because they'd never actually built working versions of what Apple showed on stage and said, "Yeah, this is coming soon." Yikes. JG was stripped of most of his responsibilities months ago, with Siri oversight being handed over to Mike Rockwell of Vision Pro fame. JG's retirement is anything but surprising. It's not an exodus, it's consequence.
Second, well, we've got Johnny Suji. Rather, uh, Johnny Succi. Mark Gurman reported over the weekend that he was leaving, too. Except, um, well, uh, he isn't. On Monday, Succi sent a memo directly to his staff stating that he had no plans to "leave anytime soon." Safe. Now, whether that statement materialized because Cook or the board promised Johnny a future title, a fatter paycheck, or Gurman simply had a bad source, we'll never really know. But it doesn't really matter. Internal politics like this happen at every major company all of the time. What matters is Suji is staying, and that is important because he is one of Apple's single greatest assets. Few people on earth could have pulled off the rollout and continued success of Apple Silicon as he has. So, false alarm, crisis averted.
And that brings us to the one departure that is truly notable. Third, Allan Dye. This one is genuinely bad. Not because Dye was irreplaceable. I mean, I've criticized his form over function approach to design for literal years on this channel, long before everybody else was mad about liquid glass shipping with text that was nearly unreadable. No, no. This departure is bad because Apple clearly didn't expect to lose him. You don't give someone a prime spot in the WWDC keynote just months before you let Mark Zuckerberg back up a dump truck full of cash to poach them. Apple was blindsided in no uncertain terms. But it gets even worse because according to John Gruber's reporting, nearly everyone inside Apple working in human interface is glad that he's gone. Now, his replacement, longtime Apple veteran Steven Lame, is reportedly well-liked, deeply respected, and unlike Dye, is an actual career interface designer that understands fundamental concepts like key windows. That Dye's circle allegedly looked down on as programmer talk. Gruber goes so far as to suggest that sentiment within Apple's ranks is that this news is almost "too good to be true." End quote. That people had given up hope that Dye would ever get squeezed out, and no one expected that he would just get up and leave on his own. So, not only is it a problem that top Apple leadership didn't expect him to leave, but they were too asleep at the wheel to have shown him the door on their own terms, JG style. Not good.
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To recap, two retirements at a normal age, one underperformer pushed out after a public failure, one genuine surprise departure to a competitor, and one false alarm. That's not an exodus, but it is unusual to announce it all at once. That is right now especially. So why? Here's my read. What we're witnessing, it's not dysfunction. It is strategic succession planning executed from a position of strength. A McKinsey paper argues that most departing CEOs tend to step back and avoid major decisions in their remaining months. They leave the messy people problems for their successor, and they do so under the guise of letting the new CEO build out their own team. But it's not magnanimous. It's disadvantageous because the outgoing CEO is the one with the institutional knowledge, with the relationships, and critically with the political capital to make tough calls that are far more costly for the new guy. Clearing the deck as a hatchet man is a valuable gift, and it's one rarely seen, and data backs up why this matters. Stanford's Paul Oyer found that when an external CEO is hired, the probability of direct reports leaving within the first year is quite high, 30%. Even with internal hiring, which Apple has always preferred, there's still a baseline 15% chance senior executives walk out the door within the first 12 months. And importantly, relationships drive turnover. The longer an executive works with a departing CEO, the more statistically likely they are to leave too once their old CEO is gone. And remember, Apple keeps people in their positions for a very long time. Tim Cook knows this, and he also knows what happens when you ignore it.
Let me give you two case studies, one bad and one good, that illustrate exactly what is happening here. First, the cautionary tale, one studied in every business school across the country, and that is General Electric under Jack Welch. For much of the 1990s, Welch ran what the business press fondly referred to as a horse race amongst three internal stars. Three guys, highly capable. One of them was going to be the next CEO. When Welch finally chose one, I mean, in the year 2000, you might be wondering, well, what happened to the other two guys? Did they go back to being subordinates? No. They immediately quit. They were not phased out. They didn't transition to advisory roles. They walked publicly and ugly. Jim McNerney went to 3M, then Boeing, Nardelli went to Home Depot, and GE didn't just lose a succession contest. They hemorrhaged decades of institutional knowledge overnight because they announced a winner without properly managing the losers. And here's the dark irony. All three of these guys ultimately failed as CEOs elsewhere. McNerney presided over GE's decline from a $430 billion company to roughly half that. Nardelli's cost-cutting culture, one that did not fit in with the rest of Home Depot's corporate culture, alienated customers and employees alike. And McNerney's Boeing prioritized the 737 Max, getting it to market quickly and cheaply. And well, you know how that one ended. Three executives groomed by the most celebrated CEO of his generation, and every single one stumbled. The problem wasn't just talent identification. It was the process itself.
Now, contrast that with Amazon. In August 2020, Jeff Wilke, the CEO of Amazon Consumer and widely considered to be the heir apparent to Bezos, announced a sudden retirement at the age of 53. Nobody retires at 53 from the second most powerful position at one of the most valuable companies in the world unless there's a reason. But there was no public drama. There's no horse race. There's no awkward power struggle. Wilke simply bowed out gracefully. And then six months later, Bezos announced Andy Jassy would become CEO. Why? Well, because Amazon was healthy. It wanted to go in a new direction. Bezos allowed his longtime lieutenant to exit with dignity before the succession announcement rather than forcing him into a humiliating loser role after the fact. The transition was smooth. Amazon stock barely blinked. And I bet you don't even freaking know who works at Amazon because who cares.
Now look at what's happening at Apple. Gianandrea, he's retiring. Adams retiring. Jackson retiring. Suji staying. Dye. Well, yeah. Okay. Dye. But does this pattern look more like GE or like Amazon? In addition to not dealing with executive departure blowback in his or her first year, I see two other strategic benefits to Cook clearing the deck for the new CEO before this transition happens. First, the new CEO can avoid the shadow effect. When a legendary CEO, which Tim Cook absolutely is, sticks around, there's always a "well, what would Tim think" dynamic that haunts the successor. Tim has talked about this very same problem that he experienced at the end of the Jobs era. By removing executives who have that same tight-knit relationship with Cook, you eliminate the parallel power structure that can undermine new leadership. And second, the horse race concession. If there was an internal competition and someone lost, well, this gives them time for a graceful exit before it becomes public knowledge. No humiliation, no resentment. The new CEO remains the good guy, and you don't lose the subordinates of the executive that is departing. No talent hemorrhaging at all.
And that brings us to Disney, the nightmare scenario of what happens when you don't do either of these things. Well, Harvard Law School's corporate governance forum published an extensive case study on Disney's succession chaos under Bob Iger. So, Iger, a very well-liked and respected CEO who's getting old in age, goes, "I need to find a new guy." And that new guy is Tom Stags. He tells everybody he's announced as the successor. He's an internal hire, really well-liked. People think he's great. But then a year later, Bob Iger's just like, "Never mind. I don't want this guy anymore. What happens to Stags? Well, he leaves. Disney loses a talent that's very, very, very, very good. And then I ends up choosing a guy named Bob Chapik. He ends up becoming CEO, but only lasts two years. Partially because he sucks, but partially because existing executives unhappy with Chapik's performance continue to complain directly to Iger, who is still involved in the day-to-day, and they convince him and the board to bring Iger back and to can Chapik. Iger's only supposed to be there temporarily, but temporarily has been a long time. And the end result is a man who continues to serve as CEO of Disney today at 74 years old. When a former CEO never fully disengages, the new CEO is set up to fail.
Apple, to Cook's credit, appears to be avoiding this trap. But there's still a risk because here's what I think will actually happen. Arthur Levenson, Apple's board chairman, turned 75 in March. And under Apple's corporate governance guidelines, he cannot stand for re-election at the February 2026 shareholder meeting. That's not speculation. It's literally written in their proxy statement. Apple needs a new chairman regardless of anything else. My prediction is that Tim Cook becomes chairman of the board while initially remaining CEO. Mirroring a structure we've seen elsewhere, unless you're Satya Nadella or the Zuck, and you just choose to be both indefinitely, but that he will announce his intentions to retire by the end of 2026. He may or may not name his successor in February, but I do believe that the transition will happen sometime next year.
So, as for who takes over, well, my money's on John Turnis. He's got the hardware background that Apple has historically favored in its leadership, expertise that Tim has admittedly lacked, and he also has a great track record. I mean, he led the transition to Apple silicon on the Mac side. He's got a strong working relationship with Johnny Suji, which given Suji's importance is a non-negotiable. And unlike some of the other candidates, he's got both the charisma and the presentation skills that matter for an Apple CEO. He's already at the company and he's young. He was literally 9 years old when Greg Josak joined Apple, which means more departures are coming. I predict that Dedra O'Brien and Greg Jaws, uh, both longtime Cook allies in their early to mid-60s, will announce their retirement plans by the end of next year. Not because they're bad at their jobs, but because their retirement age and their institutional muscle memory is with Cook, not with whomever is next. I also think that Cook himself will remain on the board as director for several years. He's too valuable to lose entirely. Shareholders need to see him there to be a source of stability, especially given his relationships in Washington. I mean, few people have been able to handle Donald Trump and his administration better than Tim Cook.
But he won't be making product decisions. At least he better not be. He shouldn't be in the room second-guessing his successor. He should be exactly where a retired CEO ought to be, available when needed, but invisible when not. And a clean slate to help achieve that is an indication that Cook intends to be that way. Out of the way. And here's my last prediction, by the way, that I'm quite certain of and one that might disappoint many of you. I don't expect Apple to suddenly like become another company. When Cook took over from Jobs, the first few years looked remarkably similar to what came before it. And Jobs was dead. There was nobody looking over his shoulder like the new CEO will have. The vision was already set. The products were already in motion. It took years for Cook's Apple, services focused, operationally obsessed to truly emerge. The same thing's going to happen here. Years one and two under Turnis or whomever it ends up being will likely feel like continuity. Real changes won't be visible until probably 2029 or 2030.
So, no. Apple is not falling apart. This executive exodus, it's not chaos, it's choreography. Tim Cook is doing what few great CEOs do, and that is prepare the company for life after them. And if history is any guide, well, Apple is shaped up to be as in good of hands tomorrow as it is today. That's my take anyways. What do you think? Are you a little more pessimistic than I am? That's a first. Let me know down in the comments below. But most importantly, and as always, stay snazzy.
IBM’s a hardware and hard research company (quantum computing). I think it relies on Intel chips for its server products. I’ll be a little surprised if IBM isn’t acquired this year.
Apple’s a hardware and software developer that OEMs its manufacturing (that started I think after Jobs was brought back), but in a way it’s primarily a service company.
I don’t currently own any AAPL shares, but will in 2026 I think. It’s going to be a big year for the company, lot of stuff coming. At this summer’s WWDC I suspect the focus will be new tools and advanced programmer interface to support any and all AI software platforms on phones and CPUs, turning the company into the anti-AI of the mag 7 stocks.
Tesla (TSLA I also don’t currently own any, but expect to in 2026) is going to go upward (not on a straight line, I call the stock the Maalox roller coaster) very hard. It was flirting with $500 last I checked yesterday, it seems likely to go up a couple or a few hundred in 2026.
The SpaceX IPO may be coming in 2026, but IPOs tend to be a bit spikey in the early months, plus it’s not easy to get picked to buy some at the IPO price, so that’ll be another run roller coaster trade for the coming years.
Micron (MU, I don’t currently own any, but expect to in 2026) may go upward, hard, in 2026, not on a straight line, perhaps by a hundred or a couple.
Oracle’s been getting hammered in media because Larry’s a Trump supporter. I suspect the partisan spin on their next few quarterly results will not work and 2026 will be a good year for them. I don’t have any now, but probably will in 2026. Paramount Skydance launched a hostile bid for WB-Discovery, and the board claimed that shareholders should reject it (because they’ve been assured of golden parachutes by Netflix, no doubt). The Netflix deal won’t work out because of anti-trust, but various lefty unions and other lefty showbiz orgs really don’t know what to do now.
Family Dollar was acquired by Dollar Tree in 2015, and reportedly Dollar General was glad in retrospect that it lost its bid for FD. The COVID fiasco was hard on Dollar Tree, but it’s been successful in its pivot to slightly higher priced items and in March found a buyer for FD. DG has been expanding into areas previously served by FD, including The Boonies. The new DG not all that far from here is a beautiful store, not like those narrow-aisled piled-to-the-ceiling hellholes that DGs always appeared to be to me in the past. This tiny synopsis is offered as an analogy for what I suspect will be the outcome of the WB-Discovery ‘winner’ — the long term outlook seems pretty bleak to me.
I’ve never been a fan of Trump Media stock, not least because of their bitcoin involvement, but more generally because of the no earnings thing. This week’s FR topic about their merger with the fusion company turns it into one of those wild west ride ‘em cowboy kind of speculative stocks, and while I’ve never owned any, I may try some of that for fun, and right after may try some single malt for the first time to drown my resulting troubles.
Ordinarily I’d avoid restaurant stocks, but speculatively, Wendy’s (WEN) has been tanking for a long time, fast food chains have been in flux since COVID, and W’s free cash flow has fluctuated quite a lot the past few years. They’ve still got plenty of presence, with some rumored new locations here in West Mich, and a good menu. A risky guess is, the company will be acquired and get all new upper mgmt this year or next.
Other mag 7 stocks [Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA)] are probably going to run some; the best of this bunch is NVDA and GOOG, imho. I’ve only ever held NVDA, enjoyed it, sold it too early, and it’ll be going into my 2026 rotation I think.
