Tennesse 7th Race 'Much Ado About Nothing' - Or maybe 'Much Ado About Nothing... Much'

AMERICAN REFUGEES: THE ROGER SIMON/SHERYL LONGIN SUBSTACK ^ | 3 Dec, 2025 | Roger Simon

[MtnClimber]

As a resident of Nashville, I have been hearing nothing but the suddenly close race in the Tennessee 7th Congressional District election for the last couple of weeks.

It was all over the national news as well, even though the competitors, Matt Van Epps (R) and Aftyn Behn (D) were hardly household names. (The man they were replacing, the suddenly resigned Rep. Mark Green, was better known, though not always for the best reasons.)

The possibility that Behn would win in a district that Donald Trump won by 22 points in 2024 had Democrats and all the ships in their legacy media sea salivating. Would they be going for a third pickup after New Jersey and Virginia, but this time in a certifiably red state?

Better yet, Ms. Behn was a progressive’s progressive, already dubbed “Tennessee’s AOC.” This could be a national trend.

In fact, she made the Congresswoman from the Bronx and Queens seem almost conventional. Behn had been recorded making the craziest statements for a Nashvillian, such as that she hated Nashville, bachelorette parties and even country music. She should have been a sitting duck. Yes, the days of Johnny Cash and Loretta Lynne are behind us, but the music business and the attendant hospitality industry are still mainstays of this city’s economy. Why was Behn polling so well?

This was making a lot of people I know very nervous. At the end of my tennis game this evening, one of the other players—thinking I knew more than I do—asked me anxiously who would win, was his beloved state turning blue? Where would he move? He sounded like some New Yorkers I knew on the eve of the Mamdani victory.

(NOTE: I live in Davidson County, which is contiguous with Nashville, but did not vote in the election because my neighborhood is not in the district.}

Well, as it happens, Armageddon did not occur, and my tennis partner does not have to call his real estate broker. After all the sturm and drang, Van Epps won by a relatively comfortable nine percent. Behn won in Davidson by 51 points but lost in all five of the other counties that make up the 7th.

What does this mean? Not a lot. I would define it as “Much Ado About Nothing… Much.”

That, of course, will not stop the thumb suckers who already have their thumbs out and are ready to point blame. I predict two explanations:

One, typical Republican voter passivity, especially without Trump running.

Two, changed demographics. All those domestic p/p[ gtvyf migrants who have been moving from blue states to red states to escape state income tax have brought their blue state values with them.

While there might be some elements of truth here, I reject both of these overall.’

Regarding the passivity, it’s not the voters who are passive so much as the Republican leadership, starting at the top. This is true of several red states, but definitely of Tennessee. (Neighboring Georgia is worse.) The local GOP, with a few exceptions, never got in gear to seriously win this election against the target-rich Behn until the last couple of weeks. The Democrats had been going full tilt for a long while. Don’t blame the GOP voters.

Regarding demographics, I addressed this in my 2023 book American Refugees, which gives this Substack its title. In researching that book—and yes, it was largely anecdotal—I determined that most people who made the effort to cross the country with their families from blue states to live in red states were conservative. They had left their original states first and foremost because they couldn’t stand their progressive governments and the people who supported them. No state taxes were an added benefit, welcome certainly, but not the primary motivation.

If I am right, and I still think I am, although it may have tempered somewhat, those people are among the least likely to vote for an Aftyn Behn.

Beyond all this, however, the Democrats will find a way to declare victory in the Seventh. You can see that in the way Nate Cohn, The New York Times’ chief political analyst, summed it up: “Republican Matt Van Epps is the projected winner in Tennessee’s Seventh District. He’s on track to win by a modest margin, but one still well behind the usual Republican benchmarks in the district.”

GOP leadership in Tennessee and elsewhere better not be complacent.

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TOPICS: Society
KEYWORDS: elections; substackloser

[Dan in Wichita]

You forgot to mention the district was redrawn after the 2020 census to make it considerably less red, while helping Republicans in other districts. 2022 was the first election following the redistricting.

[MtnClimber]

Yes, the margin, while good enough, shows a troubling trend, especially with such a bad democRAT opponent. On another thread people are calling me a commie, RINO, thumb sucker for being concerned about what this means for 2026.

[Verginius Rufus]

There are more than 5 other counties in the district besides Davidson County--I've heard 14 mentioned.

I have no idea what p/p[ givyf means.

[plain talk]

Thanks for the info. I am sure there’s lots I do not know about that district.

[ckilmer]

From the rassmussen reports I’m seeing younger tha 40 republicans also want a strong central government

[ckilmer]

Compare 9% to trumps 22% last year. The pattern is the same as no and pa in early Nov. far fewer people show up to vote for republicans when Trump is nor on the ballot

[central_va]

Are you one?

[ckilmer]

Dominion is now owned by a tepublican

[yuleeyahoo]

This year, like most off year elections; the Ds outspent the Rs by almost 2 to 1. They do this to control the narrative. From where I sit, there is no large groundswell for a change in direction unlike in 2024.

However, there is still ample time for the Rs to screw this up.

[CraigEsq]

Virginia just elected a D as AG who fantasized about being a mass murderer.

[Frank Drebin]

"They only won the Super Bowl by one point, what a terrible game for the winners."

[Impala64ssa]

We’d better start realizing that these days, all politics is national
Yes. All politics WAS local.

[ProgressingAmerica]

"To Republicans, if a candidate sucks, they won’t show up."

I don't think there is much evidence of this across the board. I wish there was. I truly wish we would start doing this.

If this idea were true Republican leadership in the majority of states would be dropping like flies every single election, CryptKeeper Mitch McConnell wouldn't have been in the senate for 1000 years(and he's still there!!!) betraying conservatives and Lindsey Graham would be announcing he isn't seeking another term along with his fellow retiring senator John Cornyn. Most local races where this does happen are exceptions to the rule and nothing more.

The truth is (and I hate it) most Republican voters practice the soft bigotry of low expectations and will vote for any republican, any time, no matter how liberal the republican candidate is because "any republican is better than any Democrat". And this has been true for the entirety of my adult life. The only time in my living memory where a high profile race happened where GOP voters announced they would not vote(and carried through) was when republican voters refused to vote for Mitt Romney. And guess what? All of those voters who would have been Romney voters but refused had to go into hiding! It was controversial! It was not celebrated. If what you say is true, the GOP voters who sat at home instead of voting for Romney would've been celebrated.

The most liberal republicans are like cockroaches, you can't get rid of them. Out of 50 senators we have like 3 conservatives and out of 220 congressmen we have like 25 conservatives. Do you disagree with any of this evidence?

[dfwgator]

I don’t think there is much evidence of this across the board. I wish there was. I truly wish we would start doing this.

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Then you’ll wake up in a Democrat-Run Police State. That’s just the way it is. It’s a case of “Name Your Poison”.

[oldtech]

“Liberals want a strong centralized Federal government, and will vote for the D”......providing there is a Democrat president. Otherwise...maybe not so much.