The Free Republic Decision Desk
is calling the Honduran presidential election for Salvador Nasralla of the moderate Liberal Party with 40.16% (882,973 votes) over the next challenger, "Tito" Asfura of the conservative National Party with 39.70% (872,722 votes), a 10,251 vote difference.
This was a barn-burner. At one point around 2 PM today, Asfura led Nasralla by a mere 2 votes! The CNE has yet to call the race, but 10K is likely insurmountable.
What this means:
The Socialist Libre Party will now be the opposition party to both the Liberal and National parties. This was an "Anything But Libre" mandate. That was the common mindset amongst voters. Libre candidate Rixi "I Can't Read the Room" Moncada, actually campaigned on taking wealth from bank accounts of the rich, and redistributing to the poor. The Honduran people rejected a socialist agenda; the warming of diplomatic ties between Honduras and Venezuela/Cuba; the stigma of being a drug transshipment country; and the inability of the previous administrations to deal with crime and the economy.
Political support for Venezuela will end after the inauguration in January 2026.
This opens the door for unofficial talks between Nasralla and President Trump in regards to trade, continued military basing at Soto Cano, Honduras. Honduras for its part, has to find a way to make up for the $174 million annual US Aid, lost after Trump became president.
Honduras will likely have to become a full participant in counter-drug, counter-cartel operations while also tackling the corruption already present within its institutions.
It will likely lead to discussions between Nasralla and El Salvadorian president Nayib Bukele, in the construction and operation of a similar prison for gang members. This was already being discussed before the election, and is a popular idea among Hondurans, regardless of party.
Nasralla will also have to address how to absorb the Honduran nationals still residing illegally in the United States.
The National Party for its part, will likely make overtures to the Liberal Party to relegate the Libre Party to a position where they hopefully, will not be a political threat. Nasralla campaigned on an idea never before instituted in Honduran politics: Putting an end to firing ALL government employees of the losing party. Nasralla espoused individual merit being the sole determining factor on state employment, and the ability to provide services to the Honduran people.
What remains unclear: What does this mean for China? Honduras terminated diplomatic relations with the Taiwanese, replacing it with a Chinese diplomatic mission.
Keeping with the Trump strategy to further isolate China from Latin America, SecState Marco Rubio is going to come calling.
I recall a fake election in Honduras where the President had a referendum to allow him to serve a longer term. The election was cancelled by the legislature, the voting machines seized and found out to have been already rigged for a win for the would be President for life . The other detail was Venezuela apparently set it up. I mention this because something similar happened to let Chavez turn Venezuela Socialist.
Well, that didn’t age well. :-)
Everyone went to bed with Liberal Party (moderate) candidate Salvador Nasralla leading by 8K+ votes.
And we woke up with National Party (conservative) Tito Asfura leading by 14K+ votes; but now leading by 23,237 lead, with 87% of the votes counted.
Of course there are accusations of shenanigans and the CNE (the election authority) and media are calling or calm and civility.
I note many Hondurans are saying they are happy they dodged socialism, and I’m noticing on chat forums that Tito Asfura gives Honduras a better path towards a closer relationship with El Salvador and President Bukele on forming a similar Honduran strategy to combat crime. I’m not sure if that is true, but that is the sentiment. Both Liberal and National parties understand corruption and crime are high on the list of Honduran concerns.
More to follow......would not be surprised this election results goes to the Supreme Court, but we’ll see.