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Alex Karp on 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry: 'Bats--- crazy' for bets against Palantir, Nvidia [10:18]
YouTube ^ | November 4, 2025 | CNBC Television

Posted on 11/04/2025 8:36:17 AM PST by SunkenCiv

(I've often thought Alex Karp looks like Max Headroom, btw) 
Alex Karp on 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry: 
'Bats--- crazy' for bets against Palantir, Nvidia
| 10:18 
CNBC Television | 3.27M subscribers | 5,051 views | November 4, 2025
Alex Karp on 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry: 'Bats--- crazy' for bets against Palantir, Nvidia | 10:18 | CNBC Television | 3.27M subscribers | 5,051 views | November 4, 2025

(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Computers/Internet
KEYWORDS: ai; alexkarp; investing; michaelburry; palantir; whatgoesup

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--> YouTube-Generated Transcript <--
0:00·Palantir reporting third quarter
0:01·results above expectations in a big way.
0:04·The company issued better than expected
0:05·fourth quarter guidance. Uh shares down
0:08·in the pre-market this morning. We'll
0:09·talk about that as well. But joining us
0:11·right now is somebody we've been talking
0:12·about frankly all morning. Alex Karp is
0:14·with us. Uh Palunteer CEO Alex, it is so
0:17·good to see you uh this morning. Uh we
0:19·had your biographer on the broadcast uh
0:22·before and and and we're speaking about
0:25·you now in third person, but now we're
0:27·now we're doing it in first person. Uh
0:29·the earnings were a blowout I think
0:30·across the board. We can talk about
0:32·maybe why the why the stock market's
0:34·reacting the way it is. But you know I
0:36·was listening to the call yesterday and
0:38·I wanted to just for those who didn't
0:40·get an opportunity to hear it. I think
0:42·you made some fascinating points about
0:44·why you think this company and maybe
0:46·even yourself are so misunderstood.
0:51·Um well there are lots of easy ways to
0:53·misunderstand me. I misunderstand myself
0:55·and you know it's not like the super
0:57·conventional playbook thing. Look, we're
0:59·an anti-playbook company. Uh if you want
1:01·to do the personal version, I'm like
1:03·this uh dyslexic formerly and I believe
1:06·currently still left of center who
1:07·actually sticks up for progressive
1:09·values which triggers you know TDS uh
1:12·loving people because I think the
1:13·Democrats aren't no longer progressive.
1:15·And then the company is built in a truly
1:18·suagenerous unique way which would only
1:20·be possible in America and actually
1:22·explodes every assump assumption of how
1:24·an expert would build a software
1:25·business. The more you actually know
1:27·about building software the more odd,
1:29·unique and inexplicable our rise in
1:32·success and I would say domination on
1:34·the enterprise software battlefield
1:36·looks and is. Um and then I would say
1:39·one of my main issues is Palantir
1:42·because we were anti we called uh we
1:44·called a lot of things that are kind of
1:45·establishment views that often are uh
1:47·viewed as kind of being super woke into
1:50·question in every single assumption of
1:51·Palantir. The people who piled in uh to
1:54·Palunteer were people investing their
1:56·own money often people who are not in
1:58·the investor class non-experts and even
2:01·till today the experts sit on the
2:03·sideline and say hey this can't be true
2:05·while the average American who invested
2:06·in Palantir and for the first time
2:08·maybe arguably in since World War II uh
2:12·average Americans got venture returns
2:14·investing in Palunteer. So you have this
2:16·massive divide uh between the average
2:19·person who evaluated themselves and the
2:22·expert class that still was working on
2:24·assumptions that have historically not
2:25·been true that obviously if you look at
2:27·the earnings if you actually look at we
2:29·grew the company uh I mean I'll go
2:31·through if you want to go through the
2:31·numbers but extraordinary results and
2:34·then the expert classes weak need and
2:35·the retail people are all in. So, but in
2:39·fairness,
2:40·but that's what I want to ask you about
2:42·in terms of the mis there because there
2:43·is a misunderstanding. Clearly, you
2:45·know, you look at the analysts, most
2:47·analysts, you know, think that this
2:49·stock is overpriced. You have people
2:50·like Michael Bur out there shorting it.
2:52·Everybody who's shorted this stock thus
2:54·far has been on the losing end of it.
2:55·And I'm trying to understand just if you
2:57·look at sort of the growth trajectory,
2:59·the sales, how much of the sales frankly
3:02·I think actually even coming there was a
3:03·huge part coming from even existing
3:05·customers and just what the scale of
3:07·this thing ultimately looks like in your
3:09·mind. Okay, there are two parts. You
3:11·know, of course, when I hear short
3:13·sellers attacking uh what I believe is
3:15·clearly the most important software
3:17·company in America and therefore in the
3:18·world in terms of our impact simply to
3:20·make money and calling trying to call
3:23·the AI revolution into question where we
3:25·have these this anomalous numbers 114,
3:28·rule of 40, etc. It just is super
3:30·triggering because these people they
3:32·could pick on any company in the world.
3:34·They have to pick on the one that
3:35·actually helps people that actually has
3:37·made money for the average person. that
3:39·that is actually supporting our war
3:41·fighters. Why do they have to go after
3:43·us? And I'll tell you what though, it's
3:44·crazy motivating because I'll tell you
3:46·why the short sellers are constantly
3:48·getting screwed by Palantir because
3:49·every time they short us, we just are
3:52·like tripling down on getting the better
3:54·numbers and part honestly to make them
3:56·poorer. But okay, so um the the the the
4:00·question of like uh the actual power of
4:04·the business and what is it worth? I
4:06·mean, at the end of the day, one of the
4:07·things that is actually in the book, the
4:09·biography, and that I actually think
4:11·that you always have to ask to to the is
4:14·the person persuasive or are they right?
4:17·And across all sorts of movements,
4:20·political, I mean, you see this on the
4:22·regressive part of the Democratic party.
4:23·We're about to probably have a complete
4:25·disaster. I was born in New York. Like,
4:27·but if you actually said, "Do these
4:28·things actually work?" Everyone's like,
4:30·"Of course, I'm not going to vote for
4:32·that." But instead, they asked, "Does it
4:33·work in theory?" the theoreticians,
4:36·you have to ask how often have you been
4:38·right and Palantir is about pragmatic
4:41·decisions that create unfair advantages
4:44·for America and its allies and on that
4:47·we've been right for almost 20 years on
4:49·all major decisions and I believe we'll
4:51·be right going forward. Now, you could
4:53·argue I don't know like they're
4:54·constantly like but they they thought
4:56·Panaltier was overvalued at 10. They
4:58·thought it was overvalued at 20. I'm not
5:00·even here saying what the valuation is.
5:01·I'm just saying find a company in the
5:03·world that has a rule of 114 that has US
5:06·commercial growing at 121% that
5:08·aggregate growth in the US is 77% that
5:12·has throwing off free cash flow in a way
5:14·that's anonymous and that is fully
5:16·aligned with our customers and you
5:18·figure out the value but they're in the
5:20·business of being skeptical and being
5:21·wrong and we're in the business of
5:22·giving an unfair advantage to American
5:24·workers, American war fighters and our
5:27·investors. Being short is is a very
5:30·difficult place to be because you can
5:31·lose everything, right? You can drive
5:33·these people into the ground. Michael
5:35·Bur put a really big bet on. It's almost
5:37·a billion dollars. It's $912 million.
5:41·That's a big step for him to put into
5:43·that. What when you say you redouble
5:45·your efforts, what do you do? What do
5:47·you go back in?
5:48·Um, well, first of all, he's it's like
5:49·he's actually putting a short on AI. So,
5:51·the way I read it was us and Nvidia and
5:53·it's like
5:54·the biggest position is you though. I'm
5:55·just through all his shorts.
5:56·Okay. So, and and then by the way with
5:58·the shorts is very complex. It's not
6:00·even clear that I honestly I think what
6:01·is going on here is market manipulation.
6:03·We delivered the best results everyone
6:05·anyone's ever seen. It's not even clear
6:07·he's not doing this to get out of his
6:09·position. I mean these people they claim
6:10·to be ethical, but you know like they're
6:13·they're actually shorting one of the
6:14·great businesses of the world. And I'm
6:16·not against shorting as a matter of
6:18·theory, but I'm just saying pick
6:19·something that is not doing a noble
6:21·task. And you know, it's us against them
6:22·and that's a good position for us. I I
6:25·mean look when you're printing a rule of
6:27·114 again people who aren't technical I
6:29·think roughly a an incredible score like
6:32·an Olympic grade score on rule of 14 is
6:34·like 50 I mean that's roughly like if
6:36·you're between 50 and seven you're an
6:38·Olympic athlete of unique influent
6:40·athlete this is like Michael Phelps like
6:42·score like Michael Jordan like there are
6:44·no scores like this there and and 121
6:47·growth off of almost a 1.5 run rate in
6:49·US commercial and a 77 77% growth in the
6:53·US and an aggregate off of an aggregate
6:55·base of of $4.5 billion. By the way, I
6:58·predicted we'd get here. So, you know,
7:01·it's like I if you want to short that,
7:05·be my guest. You go ahead. We're just
7:07·going to go do our things. I mean, look,
7:09·I'll tell you, there's a tale of two
7:10·cities in our society. We need experts
7:14·versus retail. And you see it like, you
7:16·know, I don't know why these newspapers
7:18·are running, helping Mandani win. I
7:20·don't know why we can't have honest
7:22·discussions about our future. I don't
7:24·know why we have to allow fentanyl
7:26·attack, but it's almost always sympathy
7:28·for the expert that doesn't need it. The
7:30·short seller that has some ridiculous
7:32·reason for doing something against I
7:34·mean most of GDP growth in this country
7:36·is because of AI. The real question is
7:38·how do we grow that and expose workers?
7:40·What is the worker available GDP? That's
7:43·the question for our society. Instead of
7:44·aligning on that, we've got these
7:46·completely and again if the numbers
7:48·weren't there, great. be my guest. But
7:50·then the numbers are there. So then you
7:52·you're not it's not even clear he's
7:53·actually shorting us. It's it's probably
7:55·just how do I get my position out and
7:57·not look like a fool. I don't know. But
7:59·I do think this behavior is egregious
8:01·and I'm going to be dancing around when
8:03·it when it when it proves it's proven
8:04·wrong. Right. Alex, we've heard a lot of
8:09·talk from the likes of a Michael Bur,
8:11·but more broadly about whether we're in
8:13·an AI bubble, whether the economics make
8:15·sense. Clearly in the context of
8:16·Palunteer uh they do make sense in so
8:19·far as you you're you're printing money
8:21·over there. Um not everybody in the AI
8:24·space is printing money in the same way
8:26·and they're spending an enormous amount
8:29·um on chips, data centers and the like.
8:31·How do you see the broader space right
8:33·now in terms of just how things are are
8:35·are developing? The there there are two
8:38·subtle issues in AI. what is the
8:39·addressable market and what is the
8:41·addressable market for things that work
8:43·meaning you make more money and your the
8:45·quality of the money is higher so top
8:47·line and bottom line grower we're in the
8:50·business of the a part of the
8:51·addressable market where it works and it
8:53·can be quantifiable either commercially
8:55·or on the battlefield so you that
8:57·clearly and and over time you're going
8:59·to have trader optimality meaning that
9:01·every part of the stack is going to have
9:03·to create more value than they charge
9:05·that's just obvious and if that doesn't
9:07·happen it will be a bubble and you I
9:09·mean, I'm sorry. Short sellers can't
9:10·tell a difference between products that
9:11·work and products that don't, but these
9:13·numbers should show you that there's a
9:15·part of the market that to you quote you
9:16·is printing cash. And it looks like that
9:18·part of the market is the park we own.
9:20·There's a separate question, by the way,
9:22·which I think is equally relevant. What
9:24·part of the GDP growth is available for
9:26·workers? What we call worker available
9:29·GDP? And that's like one of the unique
9:31·things about Palunteer is whether it's
9:33·on the battlefield like the people
9:34·writing the scripts for these very
9:36·complicated operations or building
9:38·batteries or doing things on the factory
9:40·floor are being enhanced by our product.
9:43·And those two it's really those two
9:44·questions are going to define arguably
9:46·the future of what happens in this
9:48·country. Does GDP grow because of AI
9:50·which only can happen if if there's prao
9:53·optimality or and and what the way we
9:55·see it the c the customer pays less than
9:58·the value they create which is abnormal
10:00·uh not exactly equal prao optimality and
10:03·that it's unknown honestly you have this
10:05·massive growth but you know currently as
10:07·far as I can tell the two companies he's
10:09·shorting are the ones making all the
10:11·money which is super weird like the idea
10:13·that chips and what you want to short is
10:17·batshit Crazy.

1 posted on 11/04/2025 8:36:17 AM PST by SunkenCiv
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; BraveMan; cardinal4; ...
The fact is, I've never owned it, but once I'm ready to resume the Maalox Roller Coaster ride, hmm, maybe...

2 posted on 11/04/2025 8:37:59 AM PST by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.


3 posted on 11/04/2025 8:43:56 AM PST by crusty old prospector
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To: SunkenCiv

This idiot shorted Tesla also


4 posted on 11/04/2025 8:44:20 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: nikos1121

Burry reminds me a little of the cast of Gilligan’s Island — one big splash, and nothing much afterward.


5 posted on 11/04/2025 8:47:22 AM PST by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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To: SunkenCiv
These companies have different fundamentals: Palantir is actually putting new tech (not just AI) to work faster in defense than any of the traditional defense companies.

NVIDIA is riding the AI boom to drive consumption of their chips. When that boom busts, so will NVIDIA.

6 posted on 11/04/2025 8:51:29 AM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: crusty old prospector

I prefer the late Paul Kanga’ version — “Buy on mystery, sell on history.” 😊💰


7 posted on 11/04/2025 8:55:26 AM PST by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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To: pierrem15

It probably won’t bust, it will continue see a ramp in production ‘til that peaks and more or less flattens out, then become just part of the scenery, the same way other product categories have done (autos, TVs, digital media including CDs etc, and mobile phones).


8 posted on 11/04/2025 8:57:36 AM PST by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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To: pierrem15

Long positions in both here.


9 posted on 11/04/2025 9:05:24 AM PST by RitchieAprile (available monkeys looking for the change..)
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To: SunkenCiv
So far the payout in AI seems meager given the scale of investment.

My educated guess is that it will increase productivity by orders of magnitude in some fields like IT, materials, defense, chemical engineering, bio-engineering, and medicine. Basically anything involving complex pattern recognition and complex combinations.

AI itself doesn't do anything: it's the applications that do.

10 posted on 11/04/2025 9:14:28 AM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: SunkenCiv

Yes Palantir make a shitload of money. But it is also ridiculously overvalued, for now, given its revenues. Karp is an intense dude, 100% of the time, and is hard to take, but he is very brilliant. I met him in 2023 and bought PLTR as a result. AI is not just a bubble, but a SHELL GAME. Especially with the OpenAI and Oracle fraudsters. The only companies doing it right are Apple, Amazon and Palantir.


11 posted on 11/04/2025 9:15:07 AM PST by montag813
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To: SunkenCiv

I agree with Alex Karp, this is dumb to short these things.

When Burry shorted the mortgage market, he had the advantage of profound historical data, and he was shorting a very mature market. He could also observe some of the hedging behavior of other industry players and derive semi-reasonable conclusions therefrom.

When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac abandoned the whole notion of “conventional” mortgages (which, boiled down, means 20% down payments and 33%(+/- small) debt coverage for borrowers there was little or no question that Fan and Freds’ historical sub-1% default rates would spike. How far? And how soon? Because shorting something early is remarkably just like being wrong, and his bets had inherent carrying costs, so the time required for “the crash” to play out was critical for him to assess.

So that was somewhat measurable, because he could see the “tapes” of lending institutions (an industry term that basically runs down the quality of borrowers in terms of their ability to service debt and LTVs which of course impact the quality of tranched loans) And he could see that loan quality was being aggressively corroded across the entire industry. He could also see that the conditions were “criminogenic” in that incentives were in place to write shakier and shakier and even illegal loans, practically without limit.

I was a beginning loan rep at the time, having gotten into the industry late, late late. I recall a rah-rah breakfast meeting that was held by Countrywide at a local hotel for loan reps. They were making sure that all the reps were acquainted with all their “products”. And I walked out of that meeting stunned....Basically, their 4 or 5 products were: product #1: conventional loan, we hate those. product #2: leave the following information off the loan app. product #3: leave even more information off the form. product #4: Do not include the borrowers soc sec number or income. product #5: Call your local manager and we will get him or her approved.

Now shorting NVDA and PLTR are an entirely different story. This AI is a brand new whiz-bang thing, clearly at the beginning of its uptake, nowhere near maturity, and the excitement is palpable. Yeah, it’s a bubble, but there are no other bubbles going on in the economy, and simple observation of these stocks reveals that the market absolutely cannot resist owning them. Nothing about these stocks in terms of how the market values them is measurable. You short something just because your spidey sense say ‘the price is too high” and you’ll almost always get scorched.


12 posted on 11/04/2025 9:27:50 AM PST by Attention Surplus Disorder (The Democrat breadlines will be gluten-free. )
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To: montag813

Then you have a 20-bagger in PLTR like my rich pal I told to buy it, and you could withstand a brutal drawdown and still be a hero.


13 posted on 11/04/2025 9:29:50 AM PST by Attention Surplus Disorder (The Democrat breadlines will be gluten-free. )
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder

Sorry; 10x bagsky


14 posted on 11/04/2025 9:31:35 AM PST by Attention Surplus Disorder (The Democrat breadlines will be gluten-free. )
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder
Then you have a 20-bagger in PLTR like my rich pal I told to buy it, and you could withstand a brutal drawdown and still be a hero.

Yes, and several "brutal drawdowns" have already occurred since my purchase, including a nearly 50% haircut earlier this year.

15 posted on 11/04/2025 9:45:30 AM PST by montag813
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder

Wow, thanks, great post!


16 posted on 11/04/2025 9:56:56 AM PST by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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To: montag813

Yup, and another metaphor that works, throw a bunch of stuff at the wall to see what sticks. Not sure about fraudsters. To your list I’d add at least Tesla.

Most of us remember the microcomputer revolution, and how there is only one survivor of manufacturing computer hardware, which is Apple, and even they OEM the products; IBM’s been out of microcomputers for decades; Microsoft began as a hardware company and only in recent years started to build its own integrated hardware (I’m not counting the Microsoft coprocessor card I seem to remember).

As with all budding industries, there will be failures, mergers, takeovers. Should be fun.


17 posted on 11/04/2025 10:03:28 AM PST by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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To: pierrem15

Well said.


18 posted on 11/04/2025 10:03:42 AM PST by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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To: SunkenCiv
Alex...


19 posted on 11/04/2025 10:18:06 AM PST by aquila48 (Do not let them make you "care" ! Guilting you is how they. control you. )
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To: SunkenCiv

I went in early and glad I did and I’m thinking of buy more this company is a mover, at least for me. A couple of years ago a Freeper mentioned to buy NVDA and I didn’t listen.


20 posted on 11/04/2025 10:45:04 AM PST by Rappini
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