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What the Stats Really Say About Crime Surge
RealClear Politics ^ | 17 Oct, 2025 | John R. Lott Jr.

Posted on 10/17/2025 6:39:10 AM PDT by MtnClimber

During last year’s presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, Trump said violent crime was rising. ABC moderator David Muir immediately fact-checked him, claiming, “President Trump, as you know, the FBI says overall violent crime is coming down in this country…”

Nearly every major media outlet echoed that narrative. National Public Radio ran the headline, “Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don’t believe it.” The Wall Street Journal declared, “Violent Crime Rate Falls Sharply After Pandemic Surge.” Vox insisted, “Violent crime is plummeting.” Axios reported, “New data shows violent crime dropping sharply in major U.S. cities.”

However, a new Bureau of Justice Statistics report, which includes data through 2024, shows that Trump was right during the debate when he said, “Crime here is up and through the roof.” The National Crime Victimization Survey shows violent crime surged 59%, with rape and sexual assault up 67%, robbery up 38%, and aggravated assault up 62%. That’s the largest four-year increase in the survey’s 52-year history.

The contrast with Trump’s first term is stark. The NCVS data shows that between 2017 and 2020, violent crime fell 15%, including a 6% drop in robbery and a 24% decline in aggravated assault. Although rape and sexual assault rose slightly, the increase was less than 10% of what occurred under Biden.

The federal government tracks crime in two main ways. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports count the number of offenses reported to police each year. The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey, by contrast, annually asks about 240,000 people living in the United States whether they were crime victims. The latter method captures both reported and unreported incidents.

Last year, the media focused almost entirely on the FBI data.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Society
KEYWORDS: cprc; crime; johnlott; leftism; trump

1 posted on 10/17/2025 6:39:10 AM PDT by MtnClimber
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To: MtnClimber

In the blue cities, the narrative is more important than the truth. The left is waging war on truth.


2 posted on 10/17/2025 6:39:28 AM PDT by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: MtnClimber

War is Peace


3 posted on 10/17/2025 7:00:22 AM PDT by Clean_Sweep
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To: MtnClimber
The left is waging war on truth.

Yep. And Tagline says it with every post.

4 posted on 10/17/2025 8:01:21 AM PDT by libertylover (The HBM (Has Been Media) is almost all AGENDA-DRIVEN and HATE-DRIVEN, not-truth driven.)
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To: MtnClimber

EArly in BeijingBiden’s term all law enforcement depts were told that the standards on crime were different (e.g., rape is no longer rape, etc.) and reporting the stats was voluntary.

So, a city/police dept suffering from horrible crimes could cook the data — to ensure elections.

Any peculiar stats are due to that.


5 posted on 10/17/2025 8:07:39 AM PDT by bobbo666
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To: MtnClimber

The left has kidnapped the truth, tied it up and is trying to gang rape it.


6 posted on 10/17/2025 9:36:40 AM PDT by BFW
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To: MtnClimber

The left is waging war on truth.
******************
Not to mention their own law abiding citizens. Criminals don’t follow the law, but defend themselves, regardless of what the law says.

Sounds like anarchy by state led socialist, in order to destroy and replace our Republic.


7 posted on 10/17/2025 11:09:47 AM PDT by Yulee
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To: MtnClimber

It all depends on when you measure from. The Crime Prevention Act passed in 1994 caused an explosion in prison population and crime absolutely plummeted. It continued to plummet until 2015 when the Obama Armin began emptying the prisons. Since then it has gone up slightly or down slightly from year to year but has mostly gone sideways.


8 posted on 10/17/2025 2:41:47 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: MtnClimber

Trump’s DOJ found evidence Dems are skewing crime stats ahead of the midterm elections

https://nypost.com/2025/10/18/business/trumps-doj-found-evidence-dems-are-skewing-crime-stats-ahead-of-the-midterm-elections/


9 posted on 10/18/2025 4:50:14 PM PDT by Libloather (Why do climate change hoax deniers live in mansions on the beach?)
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