When is a climate model 'good enough?'

Phys.org ^ | September 10, 2025 | by Saima May Sidik

[epluribus_2]

when they follow trusted, time proven Scientific Method. Requires: 1. Starting with a Hypothetical explanation of natural phenomena (Hypotheses - Humans are causing world wide damaging climate behavior) with general description with some data for discussion. 2. Challenging all listeners to energetically attempt to find flaws in logic, data, history (big one) scope, Bias and Agenda then develop methodical, detailed experiments to disprove the hypothesis. not to prove it true, you can't and if there are no practical ways to disprove it, then it is a non-falsifiable conjecture and not a theory here. 3. Communicate all raw, original findings in data collection without any tampering, cherry picking, normalizing, hiding, so others can assess the validity anf logic of your study. (fail here -see inconsistent and invalid temperature readings) 4. Hope mightily that someone finds errors or reasoning in your work that makes the hypothesis incorrect - not campaigning strenuously for public support, fear mongering, prostituting professionalism for billions of funding dollars.q

[AZJeep]

Out of all climate models, the one which is in the most in agreement with reality is some Russian one.
All the others are not really testing against reality, but against each other. So they all agree!
They are programmed to agree!

[E. Pluribus Unum]

That’s why they are black boxes. The peasants just wouldn’t understand.

[AZJeep]

“Predictions are very hard, especially about the future.”

Niels Bohr.

[Organic Panic]

They are “good enough” when they can be used to expand government control, raise taxes, and produce trillions of dollars for “green” companies and their crooked political insider traders.

[cpdiii]

When past climate data follows the model. Todays models do not. The climate models are politically biased by design and not honest science.

[bobbo666]

When it predicts ANYTHING without jiggering the results after or the input before.

[Fury]

All depends on the organization.

[Thud]

When it can predict past weather. None of the climate prediction models used today or in the past can do that.

[Sgt_Schultze]

The climate has been warming relentlessly, since the end of the last glacial period. It will continue to warm until the Earth enters the next, inevitable glaciation. There is no action humanity can take to abate this certainty.

[takebackaustin]

“good enough for government work”

[jerod]

Simple answer... Never!

Conjecture is not acceptable.

You can tell me what the weather is today... And you can tell me what the weather was yesterday in particular part of this world... But you can not tell me what the weather will be like tomorrow in any location anywhere on this planet with any certainty.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Concur.

[cgbg]

Article: “climate policy”...

“Climate policy” always ends up with us eating bugs and the elites flying private jets to climate conferences and owning multiple mansions.

I have had quite enough of their “climate policy”.

[LegendHasIt]

When is it good enough?

Well, from the ‘scientists’ point of view, it is good enough when it gets you a government grant, or a payment from the enemedia for publishing rights.

[cpdiii]

When it predicts ANYTHING without jiggering the results after or the input before.

Precisely correct. When a NOAA satellite gave billions of data points that did not support the global warming mantra, they declared it was a satellite error and adjusted the data to reflect their truth. How in the hell do they know it was an error without examining the satellite? The real truth could easily found by launching another satellite with identical instrumentation and get new readings. They did not!

They do lie, not in error but in malice.

[cpdiii]

The climate has been warming relentlessly, since the end of the last glacial period. It will continue to warm until the Earth enters the next, inevitable glaciation. There is no action humanity can take to abate this certainty.

The normal climate of the earth for many glacial epochs is glacial with brief interludes of warming we have today. If geologic history is a valid predictor (it is) we are on the cusp of a new glacial epoch. It will be long and cold as the warming periods are brief.

Pray for global warming as glacial periods are very hard on life.

ps
Per Al Gore the Arctic should be ice free by now in the summer. Why do Russia, Canada, and the USA deploy icebreakers in the arctic as I type? Are great ships crossing the arctic today? No!