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Ron Faucheux: JD Vance’s Complicated Path to the Presidency
The Advocate ^ | 8/1 | Ron Faucheux

Posted on 08/01/2025 6:48:18 PM PDT by nickcarraway

Last week, we handicapped possible Democratic candidates for president. Now, the Republicans.

There won’t be an incumbent president in the 2028 race, but there will likely be a sitting vice president in the running. That’s why any assessment of Republican presidential prospects begins and ends with JD Vance.

And of course, his prospects begin and end with Donald Trump. The current president got him elected U.S. senator and then, two years later, picked him to be his running mate, elevating Vance to MAGA’s crown prince — and the nomination front-runner.

Vance can learn a lot of lessons from other vice presidents who have sought the presidency. They tend to be stronger nomination candidates than general election contenders. While vice presidents have many advantages, they’re usually weighted down by the negatives of the incumbent president in addition to their own negatives, making for a heavy load to carry. It is a tricky position to be in.

When presidents are popular — as were Dwight Eisenhower in 1960, Ronald Reagan in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 2000 — their vice presidents still have to carry on their backs the administration’s record, but the lift is lighter. Ike’s VP, Richard Nixon, lost by only a razor-thin margin, as did Clinton’s VP, Al Gore. Reagan’s VP, George H.W. Bush, won his race to become the first incumbent vice president to be elected president since Martin Van Buren.

When presidents are unpopular, as were Lyndon Johnson in 1968 and Joe Biden in 2024, it creates a complex hazard for vice presidents to maneuver. While they want to show loyalty to the president, they also have to accommodate the public’s desire for change. Squaring loyalty with change is the toughest move in the business. Just ask Hubert Humphrey and Kamala Harris, vice presidents who were handed presidential nominations by insiders (neither entered state primaries) and then lost general elections.

If Trump is popular in 2028, Vance will proudly run on Trump’s record. But if Trump is unpopular, Vance will have a much tougher task — bringing to mind the curious story of Thomas Topham, the Englishman who had to lift an 800-pound table with his teeth.

What do voters think of Vance? There are three polling numbers to watch: his rating among all voters, his rating among Republicans and his rating among independents. The first tells us where he stands with the national electorate; the second measures his ability to win his party’s nomination; the third provides clues as to strengths and weaknesses among potential swing voters.

Vance’s rating, according to the average of four recent polls, is 42% favorable and 51% unfavorable. That’s nine points net negative.

Digging deeper, we find that Republicans love Vance; they rate him 80% favorable to 11% unfavorable, according to the Economist/YouGov poll. Not surprisingly, Democrats despise him; he rates 4% favorable, 89% unfavorable among them. Independents, who often determine winners in close elections, are less positive than negative, 28% favorable to 53% unfavorable.

An Emerson College poll conducted in late June found Vance leading the GOP nomination race with 46% of the vote. He was followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 12%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 9% and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5%. Eight other prospects polled 2% or less.

For the general election, Emerson’s late July survey shows close contests with Vance as the Republican standard-bearer. He leads Democrat Pete Buttigieg, the former transportation secretary, by a single point, 44% to 43%. Vance tops two other Democrats by three points: He leads Gavin Newsom, California’s governor, 45% to 42%, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York member of Congress, 44% to 41%. An Overton Insights poll from late June has Harris — who, interestingly, now trails Buttigieg for the Democratic nomination in the Emerson poll — leading Vance 45% to 42%.

While Vance is in the hunt, the race starts close. National and world events — inflation, tariffs, immigration, deficits, Ukraine, Gaza, China, Iran, Epstein — could change these numbers in a flash.

Regardless of the Republican name on the 2028 ballot, it will be Donald Trump’s record that will be top of voters' minds. On that, we can all agree.


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: 2028; 2028election; complicated; complicatedpath; election2028; jdvance; path; trump

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1 posted on 08/01/2025 6:48:18 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

It’s been six months. Talk about early handicapping…


2 posted on 08/01/2025 7:03:47 PM PDT by jagusafr ( )
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To: nickcarraway

“Independents, who often determine winners in close elections, are less positive than negative, 28% favorable to 53% unfavorable.”

Can someone explain this to me? Of course, *Dems* are going to hate him like they hate any living Republican. But independents? Why the lopsided hate among alleged “independents”? Because other than mere partisanship, I don’t quite get what’s to dislike so much about JDV. He seems like a good guy to me. He’s got a great biography (cf. Hillbilly Elegy), made something out of life after a difficult childhood, served in the Marines, is a family man. Seems to me that to hate him, is to hate what good and decent about America.


3 posted on 08/01/2025 7:04:45 PM PDT by irishjuggler
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To: nickcarraway
Two terms of J.D. Vance. How sweet it is!

4 posted on 08/01/2025 7:07:07 PM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie ( O give thanks unto the Lord, for He is gracious, and his mercy endures forever. — Psalm 106)
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To: irishjuggler
Good analysis.

5 posted on 08/01/2025 7:09:06 PM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie ( O give thanks unto the Lord, for He is gracious, and his mercy endures forever. — Psalm 106)
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To: nickcarraway

When President Vance takes office, he could appoint Trump as a temporary advisor and a lot of time off.


6 posted on 08/01/2025 7:10:13 PM PDT by Mark (DONATE ONCE every 3 months-is that a big deal?)
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To: nickcarraway

If Trump is popular in 2028, then Trump will run. He will find a way, and I hope he is healthy enough to do so.


7 posted on 08/01/2025 7:11:22 PM PDT by Kleon
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To: irishjuggler

Republicans never seem to care or do a good job at making themselves likeable across vast swaths.


8 posted on 08/01/2025 7:11:26 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

We’ve definitely got a deeper bench than the Democrats. Vance is popular and has the VP experience to his advantage. Rubio has done incredibly and surprisingly well while serving in the Trump administration. DeSantis probably has the best regard of getting things accomplished.

It’s still earlier. Oftentimes there is a dark horse emerging from the shadows. I’m open to considering a strong conservative breaking into the lineup during the next three years.

It at least looks like we won’t have a McCain or a Romney.


9 posted on 08/01/2025 7:11:49 PM PDT by Engraved-on-His-hands
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To: nickcarraway

Last I heard, this site is nothing more than an advocate for sodomy. Correct me if I am wrong.


10 posted on 08/01/2025 7:14:27 PM PDT by Fungi
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To: irishjuggler

I can speak for myself as a Republican — there are some figures I really like in more legislative (Senate/House) or more minor positions. But president, even mayor/governor - the chief executive - I look for different things…


11 posted on 08/01/2025 7:15:34 PM PDT by CondoleezzaProtege ( )
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To: Fungi
You are confusing two different publication. One is The Advocate which is a gay magazine. This article is from The Advocate, which is a newspaper in Louisiana. Other than the name, they are not related.
12 posted on 08/01/2025 7:19:33 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

Sure, I totally get it that you as a GOP voter can prefer some other Republican for president over JDV. No issue with that. What I don’t get is why he’d be viewed *unfavorably* by alleged independents. What did he do to deserve that? He seems like a decent guy, family man, Marine, someone who pulled himself up by his own bootstraps. Why the hate? Is it mere fallout from having been bashed as some kind of “weirdo” by Tim Walz and then that theme being picked up and amplified by the MSM?


13 posted on 08/01/2025 7:23:27 PM PDT by irishjuggler
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To: nickcarraway

Trump’s record is likely to be very good on the economy, border and the US position in the world.
That’s a very good starting position. Vance/Rubio is the odds on favorite right now.


14 posted on 08/01/2025 7:23:51 PM PDT by grumpygresh
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To: nickcarraway

Vance is obviously the favorite at the moment. I’m guessing that might not last as the time approaches. His wife will probably be a turnoff to some who don’t want the nation’s first lady to be a practicing Hindu. It wouldn’t surprise me if, in mid to late 2008, it comes down to DeSantis, Rubio, or an emerging conservative relative unknown.


15 posted on 08/01/2025 7:25:00 PM PDT by Engraved-on-His-hands
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To: irishjuggler

Future President Vance will do just fine in the election because he gets to run against the Democrats.


16 posted on 08/01/2025 7:27:29 PM PDT by cgbg (It was not us. It was them--all along.)
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To: Governor Dinwiddie

History is not on JD’s side for 2 terms. It’s only happened like 5 times, and 2 of those were non-consecutive.


17 posted on 08/01/2025 7:43:55 PM PDT by Mr. Blond
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To: Kleon
Flunked American history, or were you NEVER taught factual American history?

No president who has served TWO terms, sand part of one being president due to the death of the president, when he or she was the VEEP, is allowed to RUN for a third term!

And on top of the law, Trump will be in his early 80s, in 2028 and deserves to go back to private life after having gallantly served as president for TWO FULL terms, after having been cheated out of his consecutive one.

18 posted on 08/01/2025 7:45:34 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: nickcarraway
The most amazing fact is this:

George H.W. Bush, ...bec(a)me the first incumbent vice president to be elected president since Martin Van Buren.

19 posted on 08/01/2025 7:49:54 PM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14/12- 930am -rampage begins... 12/15/12 - 1030am - Obama team scouts photo-op locations.)
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To: irishjuggler
What I don’t get is why he’d be viewed *unfavorably* by alleged independents.

You don't understand? It's not hard. First, if your a Republican, you will get unremitting bad press, and constantly made to look bad.

But, since the time of Reagan, Republican candidates seem to go out of their way to not make themselves look unlikable. I don't know what it is, but it's pretty consistent. And all somehow, all the good things they have done/or good facets to their personality, they will never push that through to the media. Everything that might make them appeal to independents, they keep hidden. I don't understand why, but they keep doing it.

20 posted on 08/01/2025 7:52:44 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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