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Catastrophic Misread: Trump’s Ultimatum - Theatre, Delusion & Fatal Assumptions | Ukraine Map Update Video— 1/2 hour
YouTube ^ | 7/29/2025 | Willy OAM

Posted on 07/29/2025 7:36:59 AM PDT by Phoenix8

G'day Legends, I hope you're doing well, Today we talk about the Russia - Ukraine War

(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...


TOPICS: Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: putin; putinthewarpig; russiansuicide; russiantrollfarm; trump; ukrainewar; vladtheimploder
Some small talk on the wars “progression”.

Mostly on Trump’s hastened ultimatum to Russia to seek peace terms in 10-12 days instead of 50.

Willy’s analysis: It will fail as Putin is achieving his goals through military attritional warfare.

1 posted on 07/29/2025 7:36:59 AM PDT by Phoenix8
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To: Phoenix8

Good summary - saw it earlier. Willie actually supports Ukraine, but tries to be realistic about what’s going on there.


2 posted on 07/29/2025 7:38:49 AM PDT by BobL (Trusting one's doctor is the #1 health mistake one can make.)
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To: BobL

Yes I’d characterize him as pro-Ukraine with a strong neutralist tendency.

The only truly fair commentator I know of.


3 posted on 07/29/2025 7:56:32 AM PDT by Phoenix8
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To: Phoenix8
Willy’s analysis: It will fail as Putin is achieving his goals through military attritional warfare.

Near Lyman south of Oskil the Ukrainians are attritting the Russians at a 66:1 ratio.

4 posted on 07/29/2025 8:31:04 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: Phoenix8

The point of the hastened “ultimatum” is to show Putin is not serious about peace proposals or cease fires.

Once President Trump can show this with clarity, President Trump has other options such as increased sanctions and/aid to Ukraine paid for by Europe.


5 posted on 07/29/2025 8:31:54 AM PDT by marktwain
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To: Phoenix8

I always read Willy, staunch supporter of Ukraine, tells the truth as he sees it, not a propagandist.

“Again why is Russia trying to drag
out the war? Because extending the war in a war of attrition with numerical superiority then works in your favor.”


6 posted on 07/29/2025 8:36:00 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (The road is a dangerous place man, you can die out here...or worse. -Johnny Paycheck, 1980, Reno, NV)
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To: SaxxonWoods

Willy: “And what I’ll say is Russia is objectively winning this war and Ukraine is objectively losing this war. And if it was the other way, how would we be reporting this? Well, I’d be reporting it the same way, but in reverse.”


7 posted on 07/29/2025 8:39:31 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (The road is a dangerous place man, you can die out here...or worse. -Johnny Paycheck, 1980, Reno, NV)
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To: Phoenix8

The only significant and credible threat POTUS can wield is the threat of a strongly worded letter.

Even a massive increase in arms for Ukraine, is politically untenable.

Direct intervention? A joke.

Secondary sanctions? We’re not going to cut off our nose to spite our face. Other countries are going to keep buying from Russia.


8 posted on 07/29/2025 9:34:20 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Phoenix8

Willy’s analysis: It will fail as Putin is achieving his goals through military attritional warfare.

Why then make an ultimatum? Attrition warfare takes time, and lots of equipment and manufacturing, as well as millions of live bodies to waste. The reality is: 1) Russian storage depots by satellite imaging are now empty of tanks and APC’s. 2) Russian airforce doesn’t fly over Ukraine territory anymore and is pressured from the Ukraine airforce by report. 3. Russia has lost so many people it’s getting troops from N.K., and the troops going into battle are green. How much difference is 35-40 days isn’t going to make a change in a 3+ year war, where in the lines haven’t changed much in years and it’s basically trench warfare and artillery? Probably not much.

I think Trump’s change is a setup. The Russians know they can’t survive secondary sanctions, so they are gobbling ground for a better negotiating position. They are going to commit to the ‘attack’ everything they have to get the territory. The Russians keep posting how weak the Ukrainians are, how thin the ranks. The trap is going to be the counter attack that happens in the fall when the Russians are exhausted.

Art of War. “When you are strong, look weak. When your weak, look strong.” “War is Deception”

Every person that has crossed Trump, like Vlad the Invader just did, has regretted it in the long run. Perhaps Vlad the Invader will be different, soon we shall see.


9 posted on 07/29/2025 10:12:08 AM PDT by Pete Dovgan
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To: Pete Dovgan

I do think the carnage on both sides is great. Greater than reported.

Russia has superiority in artillery , drones, etc but they are also constantly on the offensive. Exposing their troops.

I bet both sides have lost a MILLION (KIA and WIA).

☮️


10 posted on 07/30/2025 4:39:23 AM PDT by Phoenix8
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To: Phoenix8

I bet both sides have lost a MILLION (KIA and WIA).

I agree. Now, if it was some great evil that forced Putin to invade, I might see the light. I believe that it was a stupid war brought on by intelligence services from the West and ‘soviet empire’ ambitions by the Kremlin. Many good people on both sides are dead now, for something that should have never happened. Russia needs to quit doubling down on this failure (yes, it would have been a success if they had taken Ukraine quickly at the start).


11 posted on 07/30/2025 6:41:58 AM PDT by Pete Dovgan
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To: Pete Dovgan

Yes good post, a year or two ago i was neutral with a slight Russian bias. Now I’ve became/becoming neutral with a slight Ukrainian bias.

Putin’s gamble to conquer the country failed. He has captured most of the 4 provinces with Russian speaking people at an enormous cost. I am starting to see little logic in his willingness to basically bleed the Slavic People dry.

He should come to the negotiating table. Trump I feel would pressure Zelensky to make a fair deal, not because he is allied with Putin but because I still feel Trump is a very peaceful POTUS who would like to end the bloody affair.

I’m starting to think Putin is waging this war for his ego etc. I mean he has already captured most of Ukraine rich Eastern section, they could never be as strong as they were again, without massive support. Thus they won’t be a mortal enemy again.

GROG estimates Putin has already captured Almost 3/4 of Ukraine’s mineral resources and a good but unknown % of their industrial base.


12 posted on 07/30/2025 7:17:36 AM PDT by Phoenix8
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To: Phoenix8

I’m starting to think Putin is waging this war for his ego etc.

I agree. I also think Trump is setting him up now. Vlad should have taken the deal.


13 posted on 07/30/2025 8:39:31 AM PDT by Pete Dovgan
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To: Phoenix8

I’m starting to think Putin is waging this war for his ego etc.

I agree. I also think Trump is setting him up now. Vlad should have taken the deal.


14 posted on 07/30/2025 8:39:35 AM PDT by Pete Dovgan
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