The Democrats are heading for a mid-terms triumph. It’s the last thing they need

The first rule of understanding Donald Trump is to never write him off. It’s no exaggeration to say he’s the most remarkable comeback kid of my lifetime: every time his political fate seems to be sealed, he always pulls back from disaster in the 11th hour.

I say this to add some context to what looks to be a genuinely dangerous situation for the Republican Party and the Maga project more generally. The Trump-Epstein scandal, now rolling on to week three, has proven itself seriously sticky for the administration. Figures across the Right-wing spectrum – from Karl Rove to Steve Bannon – are now warning that the Republicans will be under major electoral pressure come the 2026 mid-terms.

Trump has embarked on one of the most ambitious – and contentious – policy platforms in living memory. With a razor thin GOP majority already, if enough disappointed Republicans decide to stay at home, it could be sufficient to give the Democrats a significant victory, even without major switching between the parties.

There’s nuance here. Midterm elections are often bad for the incumbent, and rarely serve as a useful predictor for the future. Bill Clinton looked hopeless in 1994 after the “Republican revolution” – but does anyone now remember Bob Dole? Barack Obama faced a notorious “shellacking” in 2010, which led cocky Republicans to assume the 2012 presidential election was a shoe-in. Obama then cruised to victory. The dissipation of the promised 2022 “red wave” seemed to guarantee Ron DeSantis’ candidacy and resign Trump to the trash can of history. No need to tell you what happened next.

The point is that it can be hard to extract any obvious lessons from a mid-term performance. But that doesn’t stop politicians from trying.

Well with redistricting in OH and TX happening and GOP controlling both states heavily. The 5 Sean (on paper) majority. 220 to 215 could be a 13-15 seat majority on paper after redistricting.

It’s very hard to imagine that the Dems can’t pick up 3 seats and swing the house to their favor, even as unpopular as they are.

7-8? Well that still should be realistically doable, but given where they are as a party, I wouldn’t call it automatic.

The big question is will the Trump voters show for the midterms? If they do, 7-8 may be a bridge too far for the Democrats. This is the current GOP issue, the Trump supporters and the GOP overlap, but they are not the same. There is a segment of Trump voters historically stay home when Trump is not directly on the ballot.

If Trump is able to get them to show up to the midterms I think the Dems chance of getting a 7-8 seat gain may be just too much for them. We shall see.

However I still stand by the lunacy that Dowd is espousing that a few weeks of headlines in summer 2025 have shifted the dynamic drastically for an election. I fall of 2026.

We shall see

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