Posted on 06/01/2025 6:48:16 PM PDT by Jan_Sobieski
If Russia is crazy enough to launch nukes then that’s on them. F*ck Russia and Putin too. Life will go on in some fashion somewhere. Life is hard. It’s harder if you’re stupid (Russia).
The New START treaty is in place and the Russians announced that they are suspending participation in it. They also announced they were continuing to abide by its requirements. They did not withdraw from it nor did the US. It remains in place and does not expire until next year.
There is text floating around that the cause of Russia’s choice is confidence that their technology in this area has become substantially superior to the US and NATO. Onsite inspections would compromise their superiority, in their view.
All the talk about this can be easily addressed in 5 seconds with a query to Grok or ChatGPT.
Now then, the way those treaties work specify a number of warheads and how many can be submarine-launched, land based ICBMs and bomber based with a straightforward mix formula. (FYI, our ICBMs became de-Mirv’ed in order to stay within the numbers, given we placed so very many on submarines.)
The US places 80% of its warheads on submarines. 20% divided between ICBMs and Bombers. Reason is Russian submarines can reach our ICBM silos so very fast that they may not be able to fire given time req’d for our failsafe protocols to process. So those warheads had to be put somewhere more safe. Subs.
Russia places 60% of its warheads on subs with 40% on ICBMs and bombers. Russian ICBMs are generally mobile — a huge advantage over silos. You cannot target them. They will move on warning. Our yields are so low that blast radius is too narrow to capture the launcher in motion away.
You don’t have to wonder about these things. Looking them up has become very easy.
Typical warhead yield for the US is significantly lower than for Russia warheads. This has always been so and originally the reason for this was explained via US accuracies being superior. That went away a few decades ago, but plutonium supply in Russia and its many reactors is easier to acquire in significant mass. So the yield differential remains.
The numbers are constrained by the treaty. And that’s what Flynn is talking about. The treaty has verification requirements and one such method is “national technical means”, which has always been euphemism for satellite imagery counting. His point is that if their req’d visibility from orbit and lat/long coords specified by the satellites is to become a technique for targeting, this becomes a mechanism for Ukraine to undercut the Russo/American New START treaty, and it certainly will make renewal of the treaty next year near impossible.
There is no way Trump wants this.
It's not for nothing that the Russians have called for a meeting on the UN Security council regarding this attack.
Safe to say that President Trump and Putin are having a very frank discussion on this issue and at the very least I think Lindsey Graham's days of leading a veto proof Senate coalition to impose a 500% tariff on people who do business with Russia are done.
He and Blumenthal will be lucky if they are not arrested regardless of their complicity in this attack ( which is highly probable) just due to the timing and circumstances of their visit. These two were obviously coordinating with Zelensky on rejection of Russia's terms at the Monday Peace Talks in Istanbul and at the very least, Zelensky threw them under the bus.
There is going to a blood bath of resignations, prosecutions and courts martial for any US officials involved in this debacle
I suspect that Zelensky is going to be strutting into Istanbul to face a very cold shoulder reaction from all involved.
It the Russians play their cards right and coordinate with Sec Rubio, this may be the end for Zelensky.
It may also give President Trump the cover he needs to walk away from the Ukraine and end military cooperation with the Zelensky regime in a way that the Congressional Ukraine War Caucus cannot politicize to screw the Trump Administration.
the SALT treaties are not currently in effect. SALT II expired in 1985 and was never ratified by the U.S. Senate. It was followed by the START treaties.
Who’s out of their league?
If you go take a look at all the B-52s that we cut up for SALT, they are still sitting on in the open ground at Davis - Monthan AFB after all these years so the Russians can monitor them
This is serious business on the most serious of issues. The Zelensky crew has just crossed a nuclear line that is not be crossed.
I support the United States, not the Ukraine or Russia. And we are doing everything to try and stop a war, BOTH sides are being disrespectful to President Trump. I would have walked away a long time ago.
3 t8mes we saved Europe from their dumb wars, and we saved them from starvation
No more American blood or treasure will be spent for that Comtienent again.
“ How many nuclear-armed Russian missile subs are there?”
At least one less. One was hit during Operation Spiderweb, up North near Murmansk.
“A lot of people really don’t grasp that if you wage war against Ukraine for 4 years, they are going to do stuff in return.”
Both sides get to throw punches and neither will fight fair. And both sides get to make terrible decisions.
Whether this is a terrible decision by Ukraine or a smart move will be told in the end. I have no idea. Anyone who does is a lot smarter than me.
This is still a European problem not an American problem. If they can’t/won’t stop it then F’ em.
Maybe you haven’t noticed - some of Russia’s harshest attacks occur after Zelensky, hits deep into Russian territory - he wants the war to go on because once it’s over, so is he...
thank you for posting this ...
They already do that for Cuba
The treaty, which Russia suspended in Feb 2023, doesn't specify that bombers must be parked outside for verification purposes.
The fake news on FR has becoming laughable.
Maybe you haven’t noticed - some of Russia’s harshest attacks occur after Zelensky, hits deep into Russian territory - he wants the war to go on because once it’s over, so is he...
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I agree with you.
If the war stops, Putin will be eliminated.
When it comes to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, one thing is clear: Russia has illegally annexed around 20% of Ukraine’s territory. That makes it the aggressor in this conflict. Ukraine, on the other hand, is responding to an invasion that began with Russia. In situations like this, the side that was attacked has the right to retaliate or defend itself. The aggressor can’t justify its actions by pretending to be a victim — It started the war in the first place.
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