Posted on 04/30/2025 4:29:16 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
A phenomenon that Elon Musk has called 'the greatest risk to the future of civilization' just got worse, according to a new study.
Musk - who has 14 children with four women - has for years warned about population collapse caused by baby bust in America and the West.
The consensus was that countries needed a fertility rate of 2.1 children per one woman to continue growing - a concern given that the US's is at 1.62.
But now researchers say that fertility target may be too low.
A new study found populations may need a fertility rate of 2.7 children per woman to avoid long-term extinction.
The team said the original estimate didn't fully account for variables like mortality rates, the male-to-female ratio, the probability that some adults never reproduce, and random fluctuations in family size.
Musk, who boasts of 'always banging the baby drum,' has been sounding the alarm on worldwide population collapse for years, claiming it will be 'the biggest problem the world will face in 20 years.'
The billionaire-turned-politician previously said that low birth rates result in fewer workers, increased debt, strained healthcare and pension systems, and total social unrest.
Diane Cuaresma, one of the study's authors, said: 'Considering stochasticity [unpredictability] in fertility and mortality rates, and sex ratios, a fertility rate higher than the standard replacement level is necessary to ensure sustainability of our population.'
The team concluded that true population sustainability – as well as the sustainability of languages, cultural traditions, and diverse family lineages – requires rethinking conventional fertility targets.
Writing in the journal Plos One the team said: 'The underpopulation crisis has been a serious threat to the sustainability of developed countries.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Give massive tax breaks to families that have more then 2 kids
You have a third kid then families pay no taxes until the kid is 18
Per kid after 2
That doesn't make a lot of sense. The TFR refers to how many children a woman has on average. It is above 2 to account for the natural excess male population at birth plus the mortality rate prior to reaching reproductive years. In a developed nation that is quite low, so the 2.1 figure always made sense. It flat out DOES account for the reality of some adults not reproducing, etc. I could see a refinement of it going to maybe 2.2, but 2.7 only makes sense if you have massive child mortality.
Or does that mean they are expecting a return to that level of mortality in the years ahead? I've always been concerned with the declining TFR, and have pointed out that current population estimates are based on the rosiest possible scenario of continuing world peace and development. Introduce major wars, pestilence/famine, etc., and things will get much worse very quickly than the projections indicate.
A drastic population decrease is only a massive blow in a Marxist society where wealth is redistributed according to “need”.
It’s called the upside-down age pyramid. Too many old people retiring and not enough young people in the workforce to support them.
In a meritocracy, with private property rights, successful people keep most of what they earn, and save for their own retirement. Unsuccessful people cannot provide for themselves, much less a family, and thus have a difficult time attracting a mate.
In a meritocracy, population decrease would not be a problem - we don’t need 8 billion people - humanity survived for most of its history with far less.
That’s the year Roe v Wade passed.
True, but if you look at that chart, the population was already dropping at a drastic rate.
Legalized abortion was a symptom, not a cause.
Or just remove the personal income tax. It's repugnant and needs to be permanently removed.
Give Planned Parenthood the nod for the declining numbers.
Young women seem to feel that most young men are losers and the women are all actively chasing the fairy tale prince/super-powered-rich-guy they saw in the movies.
add into the mix Noxious Nixon’s Still active “War on Natural Resource Harvesters” which destroyed rural and small town families all across the US and continues to this day.
If you look at the chart in Post 4, Planned Parenthood didn't cause the decline. Planned Parenthood may contribute to preventing the rates from climbing back up, but that would have to be identified and quantified.
This may have more to do with such things as the Immigration Act of 1965, switching the U.S. dollar to fiat currency, or technological innovations that allowed globalism to accelerate.
I had four, I did my part
—
But only by one woman (theoretically) whereas a muslim can legally have 2 wives and, if he believes he can afford it, up to 4 wives.
All wives are duty bound to have children, on pain of instant divorce - husband only needs to chant, “I divorce you” three times for the divorce to be final. There is no legal recourse for the woman.
Of course, the Muscleman man is expected to kill the infidels in a battle which he wants to die in. So have your wives and children, then die in battle. He’s done his part.
or the Pill or easy contraception etc.
The graph points toward other causes. I suspect things such as welfare laws that allow for unmarried women to have children subsidized by taxpayers would increase the number of single mothers who didn't want a "replacement rate" family but felt driven to reproduce. They got their one or two trophies and stopped there.
Men avoiding single mothers would increase the number of unmarried mothers who had only one child.
“Small town lives, with happy families, and basic hobbies (gardening, fishing, hunting, wood working, crafting, cooking, etc.). It may not be for everyone, but I bet most people would love to get back to that world.”
You just described my wife’s hometown in the Midwest.
Many of her relatives, friends and even their off spring have returned there to live with family and friends.
Isn’t extinction always long-term?
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