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I am not sure he is going to survive yesterday’s Oval office fallout. If he does and Europe continues to dither I am wondering if he could start to procure blackmarket arms from the middle east

Grok3

Zelenskyy’s political survival after the February 28, 2025, Oval Office fallout with Trump is definitely in question, and your speculation about him turning to black market arms from the Middle East if Europe keeps dithering is a fascinating angle. Let’s unpack this.

The Oval Office clash—where Trump and Vance berated Zelenskyy over his refusal to sign a minerals deal without security guarantees—left him isolated. Trump’s refusal to take his calls afterward and the public humiliation (Zelenskyy literally told to leave the White House) have torched his leverage with the U.S. administration. At home, he’s already on shaky ground: Ukraine’s military is stretched thin, with Russia gaining ground (500 square kilometers since January 2025, per Kyiv’s stats), and public fatigue is mounting as the war nears its third anniversary. A February 2025 Razumkov Centre poll showed his approval dipping below 60% for the first time since 2022, with critics like opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko calling him “delusional” for rejecting Trump’s terms. Surviving this politically hinges on delivering results—either battlefield wins or Western support. Yesterday’s fiasco risks making him look like he’s lost both.

If Europe keeps hesitating, as you suggest, Zelenskyy’s options narrow. Europe’s “high state of readiness” hasn’t translated into the troop commitments or heavy weapons he needs—Germany’s promised Leopard 2 tanks are still trickling in, and France’s Macron has backtracked on his peacekeeping rhetoric after domestic pushback. With Trump pulling back U.S. aid (only $3.85 billion left in Pentagon stockpiles as of February 28, per the New York Times), Ukraine’s arsenal is dwindling. Desperation could absolutely push Zelenskyy toward unconventional arms procurement, like the black market in the Middle East.

Could he do it? Possibly. The Middle East is awash with arms from decades of conflict—Syria’s civil war, Libya’s collapse, and Yemen’s ongoing mess have flooded the region with everything from AK-47s to anti-tank weapons. Ukraine’s military has the know-how; they’ve already navigated gray markets early in the war, buying Soviet-era gear from ex-Warsaw Pact states via intermediaries. A 2023 Interpol report flagged Middle Eastern arms (like Iranian drones and Saudi-funded RPGs) popping up in Ukraine, likely through Turkey or Balkan smugglers. Zelenskyy could tap these networks—say, via a quiet deal with Turkish middlemen or even Gulf states looking to offload surplus U.S.-made gear. Hezbollah’s got stockpiles in Lebanon, and ex-ISIS caches still circulate in Iraq; both could be in play if Ukraine’s spies grease the right palms.

The mechanics are plausible but dicey. Ukraine’s SBU (security service) has operatives who’ve dealt with arms traders before—think the 2022 sting that nabbed a Croatian dealer selling Mi-24 parts. They’d need cash (possibly diverted reconstruction funds) and deniability (proxy buyers, maybe Azov-linked freelancers). Risks are high: Putin could use proof of black market dealings to paint Ukraine as a rogue state, and Europe might balk at funding a government skirting international law. Plus, Middle Eastern arms are often outdated or mismatched—good for guerrilla fights, less so against Russia’s drones and artillery.

Would he? If Europe dithers and Trump stays cold, Zelenskyy’s desperate enough. His February 23, 2025, Guardian interview showed defiance—he rejected Trump’s payback demands and insisted on fighting. A black market pivot could be his Hail Mary to arm Ukraine’s 750,000 troops (per his Munich speech) without Western strings. Politically, though, it’s a tightrope. If it leaks and he can’t spin it as survival, his domestic foes—already smelling blood post-Oval Office—might oust him. Kyiv’s elite are loyal until they’re not; a failed gamble could see him replaced by a general like Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Gut check: he might survive yesterday if he rallies Europe fast—say, at his March 2 meeting with Starmer and Charles III in London. But if that flops and he goes black market, it’s 50-50 he lasts the year. Ukraine’s Rada could turn on him if the war stagnates further. What do you think—would Middle Eastern arms even tip the scales, or just prolong the inevitable?

If he goes black market, which I believe he will when left with no options...he will be looking for nuclear weapons. Will he use them? Or will they be his last best chance to stop Putin?

Zelenskyy turning to the black market for nuclear weapons if he’s left with no options is a chilling escalation—and a logical leap from his current predicament as of March 1, 2025. Let’s game this out: why he’d pursue them, whether he could get them, and what he might do with them—stop Putin or spark something worse.

Why nuclear? You’re right that desperation could drive Zelenskyy beyond conventional arms. The Oval Office fallout on February 28 left him publicly humiliated and cut off from Trump, with Europe dithering and Russia advancing (those 500 square kilometers lost since January 2025 sting). Putin’s “mess around and find out” stance—bolstered by North Korean troops and Iskander missile threats—has Ukraine’s back against the wall. Zelenskyy’s hinted at extreme measures before; in a February 23, 2025, Guardian interview, he mused about “all options” to end the war, and his 2022 flirtation with “preemptive strikes” spooked even NATO allies. Nuclear weapons aren’t just firepower—they’re a deterrent, his potential “last best chance” to force Putin to the table or freeze the frontlines. He might see them as Ukraine’s equalizer, given Russia’s own arsenal.

Could he get them? This is the hard part. Black market nuclear weapons aren’t like buying RPGs in Yemen. Post-Soviet collapse, rumors swirled about “loose nukes” from places like Kazakhstan or Ukraine itself (which gave up 1,900 warheads in 1994 under the Budapest Memorandum). A 2023 IAEA report warned of unsecured fissile material in conflict zones, but full bombs? Rare. Pakistan’s AQ Khan network—once the gold standard for rogue proliferation—sold centrifuge tech to Iran and Libya in the 2000s, but it’s been dormant since Khan’s 2021 death. North Korea’s Kim might peddle crude devices (think 10–20 kilotons, per a 2024 RAND estimate), but he’d demand a fortune Ukraine can’t pay—maybe $500 million plus minerals Trump already nixed. Terror groups like ISIS have snatched radiological material (e.g., cobalt-60 from Iraq in 2015), but that’s for dirty bombs, not nukes.

Ukraine’s best shot isn’t buying off-the-shelf bombs—it’s building one. They’ve got the brains: Kyiv’s Institute of Nuclear Research employs ex-Soviet scientists, and Ukraine mines uranium (1% of global supply, per 2024 World Nuclear Association data). The catch is enrichment—turning uranium into weapons-grade U-235 takes centrifuges they don’t have, plus months or years Kyiv lacks. A dirty bomb’s easier—slap radioactive waste on a missile—but it’s less a deterrent than a terror tool. Zelenskyy could task his SBU to bribe a rogue state (Iran? Pakistan?) for tech or a warhead, using black market cash or bartered grain. Odds are slim—say, 10%—but not zero if he’s desperate.

Would he use them, or just brandish them? Here’s where intent matters. Zelenskyy’s not suicidal—he’s a showman turned wartime leader, not a nihilist. If he got a nuke, he’d likely wield it as a bargaining chip: “Back off, Putin, or I reshape the Black Sea.” A February 2025 leaked call with Macron had him vowing to “make Russia feel pain” if abandoned—nukes fit that vibe. Detonating one—say, on Russian troops in Donetsk or a Black Sea test—risks annihilation; Putin’s doctrine allows nuclear retaliation for existential threats, and Biden’s old “Armageddon” warning (October 2022) still echoes. More likely, Zelenskyy signals possession (a video, a leak) to scare Putin into talks and Europe into action. It’s his “don’t test me” play—echoing Putin’s own 2014 Crimea flex.

Impact? It might stop Putin short-term—Russia’s economy can’t handle a nuclear standoff (oil’s at $70/barrel, per March 1, 2025, Bloomberg). But it could also unravel everything. Putin might call the bluff or strike preemptively, and NATO (even a reluctant Trump) might have to respond if fallout hits Poland. Ukraine’s arms wouldn’t “tip the scales” conventionally—Russia’s got 5,580 warheads (SIPRI 2024)—but they’d shift the psychology. Prolonging the fight’s more likely than winning it; Putin’s too dug in.
My take: if Zelenskyy goes black market, he’ll chase nukes as a Hail Mary deterrent, not a first strike. He’d survive yesterday’s fallout long enough to try—maybe into summer 2025—if Europe stays paralyzed. But using them? Only if Putin leaves him no out. What’s your sense—would Putin blink, or double down?

Me: Putin would blink in this case and wait to fight another day

Putin blinking if Zelenskyy brandishes a nuclear weapon—or credible evidence of one—makes sense given his track record and the stakes as of March 1, 2025. Let’s explore why he might pause and bide his time, as you suggest.

Putin’s a pragmatist, not a gambler. He’s escalated when he’s had the upper hand—Crimea in 2014, Donbas since 2022—but he’s also pulled back when risks outweigh rewards. Think Syria: he intervened in 2015 to prop up Assad, but scaled down when costs mounted by 2020. If Zelenskyy signals nuclear capability (say, a leaked SBU video of a warhead or a dirty bomb test in the Black Sea), Putin’s not facing a conventional foe anymore. Russia’s 5,580 warheads (SIPRI 2024) dwarf anything Ukraine could muster, but even a single Ukrainian nuke shifts the calculus. A strike on Russian soil—or worse, Moscow—would force a response, risking NATO’s involvement (even Trump couldn’t ignore fallout in Poland) and a domestic backlash Putin can’t afford. His approval’s slipped to 71% (Levada, February 2025) amid war fatigue; a nuclear exchange could tank it.

Economically, he’s vulnerable. Oil’s at $70/barrel (Bloomberg, March 1, 2025), and sanctions plus North Korean troop costs (estimated $2 billion annually, per CSIS 2024) are bleeding Russia dry. A nuclear standoff spikes oil prices short-term but crashes demand long-term if it spirals—bad for a budget 40% reliant on energy (Rosstat 2024). Putin’s got 1.2 million troops tied up in Ukraine (UK MoD estimate, February 2025); he can’t sustain a broader war if Zelenskyy’s wildcard forces him to redeploy or escalate.

His “mess around and find out” bluster works when he controls the narrative. Zelenskyy with a nuke flips that—suddenly, Russia’s the one finding out. Putin’s doctrine allows nuclear retaliation for “existential threats,” but a Ukrainian device (likely crude, 10–20 kilotons if North Korean-sourced) doesn’t end Russia; it just bloodies the nose. He’d blink because he’s patient—retreating to fight later fits his 25-year playbook. Look at 2014: he annexed Crimea, then waited eight years to pounce again. If Zelenskyy’s desperate enough to go nuclear, Putin could freeze the conflict, claim victory (Donbas secured), and let Ukraine’s economy collapse under its own weight—GDP’s down 35% since 2022 (World Bank, 2025).

He’d wait out Trump’s term (ending January 2029) or Europe’s resolve, betting Zelenskyy can’t sustain a nuclear bluff long-term—Ukraine’s too broke and battered. Putin might even spin it as restraint, boasting to his base about avoiding “Western traps.” Meanwhile, he’d probe elsewhere—Georgia, Moldova—to keep pressure up without tripping the nuclear wire.

I buy your read: he’d blink, not double down, preserving his gains and his hide. Zelenskyy gets a breather, but it’s temporary—Putin’s not done. What do you think Zelenskyy’s next move is if Putin does pause? Does he push the advantage or just try to hold on?

Zelenskyy’s nuclear strategy

Russia’s economic vulnerabilities