Posted on 01/06/2025 2:41:25 PM PST by delta7
Home sales in the US rose to a four-year high after rising 12.1% YoY, according to a new Redfin report. As I stated, we are entered a buyer’s market in May of 2024 in line with the ECM. Gone are the days of bidding wars and skipped inspections. Home inventory has picked up significantly but we are seeing those homes sitting on the market far longer as people simply cannot afford to buy.
Nearly 55% of listed homes have been on the market for over 60 days, a 49.9% increase from last year. The average home takes 43 days to go under contract now, marking the slowest pace since the pre-pandemic era of 2019.
Home prices across the nation as of November 2024 stood at $429,971, which represented a 5.4% YoY increase. The average 30-year mortgage stands at 6.95%, down 4 bps YoY but not enough to attract would-be buyers. The 15-year stands at 6.28%, down 7 bps YoY.
Texas and Florida have the highest rates of homes sitting on the market. The primary reason we are seeing this is a drastic increase in as-is homes in the wake of two hurricanes. Around 57% of homes in Tampa have been sitting on the market for over 60 days. All you need to do is take a look at Zillow or Trulia to see why. People are offloading hurricane-damaged properties that need significant work. It is extremely common to see homes listed with removed drywall or flooring from flood damage. Miami has seen the highest percentage of inventory increases across all metro areas at 63.8%, and although unaffected from the storms, the city has seen a drastic surge in HOA and insurance prices.
“A lot of listings on the market are either stale or uninhabitable. There’s a lot of inventory, but it doesn’t feel like enough,” said Meme Loggins, a Redfin Premier real estate agent. “I explain to sellers that their house will sit on the market if it’s not fairly priced. Homes that are priced well and in good condition are flying off the market in three to five days, but homes that are overpriced can sit for over three months.”
We look to Treasuries to see if there will be a decrease in rates. Again, American real estate cannot be forecast at a national level since there are too many factors at play.
Our computer models indicate that we will see a reversal in trend back to a seller’s market by August 2028. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.
Are these mostly new construction built by barely English speaking craftsmen in a hurry to get done? Or are they 25 year old homes that haven’t been properly maintained?
Armstrong was personal friends with Thatcher and he saved the British Pound? Hilarious!
It’s about an even mix. Pre-existing homes needing new HVAC, foundation repair, galvanized plumbing and hazardous electrical panel needing replacement....all at once. For the first time in 25 years, I had 5 clients walk away from new construction on the initial pre-drywall inspection due to poor construction.....all within a 4-month period.
Re new construction and walk away clients. They were able to see construction before drywall installed? What issues did you see?
On one, no top plates on a second story gable wall above an 18 foot garage door opening. Builder rep said it was acceptable because that’s how they build all of them. On another, the builder cut 16 pairs of rafters short of the ridge board and shimmed the gap with EPS board, refusi g to replace them. Another one had the drain opening for the master bathroom tub in the master bedroom closet. Two others just bad spacing and use of utility grade lumber for framing. One used a water-damaged LVL beam that was delaminating. The list is endless.
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