The Stale US Real Estate Market

Armstrong Economics ^ | 6 Jan 25 | Martin Armstrong

[delta7]

I can attest to the current Florida housing situation. Just back, lots of “ Deals” if you are willing to hang drywall and install flooring…..but the average price to jack a 60’s, 70’s house to the new 15 foot guideline is $175K plus….

[dragnet2]

Texas and Florida have the highest rates of homes sitting on the market.

Uh oh...Watch CA next...

[CottonBall]

“Home prices across the nation as of November 2024 stood at $429,971,”

All home prices? Average home prices? The highest home prices? The lowest home prices?

I’ll just assume they mean average but I shouldn’t have to assume anything. If something is poorly written I don’t trust much of else that is in it.

[MoneyBack]

Scam Alert

Our computer models indicate that we will see a reversal in trend back to a seller’s market

That unrepentant convicted felon Martin Armstrong who runs that scam site "Armstrong Economics", which is promoted here, does not have a computer model of anything.


Yes, that's right and proven. Just ask Delta7 how his models work and he will not be able to tell you.


So what is his Socrates? It is a little program that some people wrote for him in the 1980s. It puts out dozens of conflicting signals in all directions.


After the fact, Armstrong cherry-picks in hindsight whatever matched what he now says it predicted.


It's really that simple.


Please note that Armstrong actually believed in this program back then. He used it for trading and lost USD 700 million with it.


And now he sells that junk which he calls "Socrates" as a subscription service for $1,800 per year. Buyer beware!

[BipolarBob]

You have to jack your house 15 feet in the air?

[dragnet2]

It’s not real current news. This trend has been going on a while. Lots of people holding back to see what Trump does, what interests rates do etc....

Half of All Home Listings Have Gone Extra Stale, Unsold After 60 Days on Market

https://www.redfin.com/news/sales-speed-stale-listings-august-2024/

[Larry Lucido]

This whole article is a worthless data salad sprinkled with undefined acronyms. Totally useless.

[dragnet2]

This is from Newsweek. Could be BS too.

Published Jan 06, 2025
Texas House Prices Are Forecast to Fall in 31 Cities

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-house-prices-forecast-fall-31-cities-2010221

[txeagle]

As a real estatee inspector I’m not surprised. More and more of the houses I inspect have an additional $40 - 50K of necessary repairs (excluding cosmetics) on top of already excessive sale prices. It’s the worst I’ve seen in 25 years.

[Night Hides Not]

North Texas adds 100K+ new residents every year, our total population now exceeds 8 Million. I don’t expect a decrease in prices anytime soon.

[MoneyBack]

Armstrong's ECM Scam

The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model.

Q: What does his ECM predict?

A: Nothing. Here is why:

His ECM (Economic Confidence Model) is a chart of cycle that runs through time with a fixed period, having ups and downs at regular intervals. Armstrong does not say in advance what should happen at its future turns.


After it has turned, he looks through hundreds of charts. Inevitably he will find one that turned at the same time as his ECM, preferably "precisely to the day".


As can be expected, he finds those hindsight matches. In this case, he selected the 2007 high on the Shiller Index.

[dragnet2]

Wow...

[Brian Griffin]

In my Florida county of Sarasota many houses along the coast about 8 feet or less above sea level got inundated by Helene or Milton, or both.

Inland, Helene caused a lot of flooding. Drywall and flooring are easily replaced.

Milton caused some roofs to fail. Often because the shingles on the north side were not melted together, but sometimes for reasons I could not determine.

Not one drop of Milton’s water came through my 31-year-old shingles. A roof vent had one nail hole that leaked. My fake chimney leaked badly. I patched my roof and chimney, but replacement is needed.

[Brian Griffin]

Because of high insurance rates, low life is gone in my Florida neighborhood.

[9422WMR]

“ Texas and Florida have the highest rates of homes sitting on the market.”
That may be because people are buying RV’s and moving to the RV villages popping up everywhere in Texas.
Must be cheaper to buy an RV and pay lot lease than to buy a house or rent an apartment.

[Brian Griffin]

The inability to obtain low-cost insurance keeps slumlords and scum away.

This is making lots of Florida real estate highly valuable.

[HonkyTonkMan]

Meme Loggins, a Redfin Premier real estate agent

Too many meme's in this article.

[FLT-bird]

Until home prices give back a substantial portion (ie about a 25-30% haircut) of the run up they experienced starting about 4 years ago, the market will not recover.

[Crusher138]

My two cents...

I recently inherited a condo. The relative had let it go into foreclosure just before she died. It took 5 months of legal wrangling just to be “allowed” to catch up the payments. The HOA payments are behind as well. After two months on the market we get a buyer. There is an inspection. Long story short, we have put about $30K into the condo just to sell it, at $60K less than our original asking price.

My son is looking for a house. He lives in an apartment and is paying almost $2K a month in rent. He made $110K last year. They would like 3 bedrooms/2 baths in a decent neighborhood. A house payment (PITI) of $2000 a month means a $300K house with $30K down. They start at about $325K around here and that is for an old home in an ishy neighborhood.

My other son bought an older house in Texas for $150K a couple of years ago. They are not fans of it, but they realize they are building equity and this is a starter home. Their property tax is about 25% MORE than our $450K house in New Mexico.

Real Estate is in a weird place.

[Jane Long]

They certainly didn’t include our area of Texas.

DECENT Homes rarely last on market more than 7 days.

That is longer than a year ago when they’d rarely last 3 days.