Replies

kabar: "Russia is winning and Ukraine is losing."

That depends on your definitions of "winning" and "losing".
You may remember the Battle of Asculum in 279 BC -- it was a Greek victory over the Romans, but at a cost so high to the Greeks, their commander, named Pyrrhus remarked afterward: "Another such victory and we are undone."
Hence the name, "Pyrrhic Victory".

By my definitions, Vlad the Invader lost his war on Ukraine in March of 2022 and ever since has only been trying to run up his own Russian body counts high enough to make the war worthy of an ignoble defeat.
Russians have regained nothing of significance since their decisive defeats in 2022.

Now, in 2024, Russians have nearly doubled their average daily losses in both men and materials -- from circa 800 per day in January-February to over 1,500 per day in October-November.
And for almost no gains in territory.

kabar: "Everyone knows the war will be over once Trump assumes office.
It will be a negotiated, diplomatic solution.
Both sides are jockeying for position."

That may or may not be true.
Nobody today even knows what negotiations will take place or how they will turn out.
I fear they will not prove as quick and easy as Pres. Trump hopes for.

kabar: "Biden/Blinken are shoveling the money to Ukraine as fast as possible.
They want the war to continue until they leave office and then blame Trump for losing Ukraine."

So, first of all, as recently as October, Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky said the US had only delivered 10% of the aid passed by Congress in April 2024.
Since then, the Biden administration has tried to speed up deliveries, knowing that Pres. Trump might well stop future deliveries on January 20.
All of US aid should have been long since delivered, as required by the law passed in April.

As for blame -- for certain, Democrats will always blame Republicans for whatever they can -- if the glass is half full, Democrats will blame Republicans for letting it get half empty.
If the glass is only half empty, Democrats will blame Republicans for not giving more water to Democrats.
So, Democrats' blame is a given, no matter what.

kabar: "The US funds the entire government of Ukraine, including the military.
We pay for their pensions.
Once Trump assumes office, the gravy train ends."

Most of that is pure nonsense.
In fact, funding for Ukraine's war comes from roughly as follows:

33% from Ukraine itself
25% from the USA
25% from other NATO allies
17% from non-NATO allies (i.e., Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc.) and NGOs.

So, even if the US withdraws all support for Ukraine, while other allies increase their support by 25% each, then Ukraine could still carry on at roughly the current levels.

It would not be ideal for Ukraine, but it would also not be the end of Ukrainian resistance either.

The war did not begin in 2022. It started in 2014 with the US/EU supported coup of the duly elected government of Ukraine. This spawned the separatist movement in the Donbass and the first Russian invasion (unopposed) that resulted in the annexation of Crimea. This happened under Obama/Biden and his national security tram of Blinken, Nuland, Sullivan, and Powers. This same group of fools and knaves led by a compromised "elected" President Biden provoked a second Russian invasion by ignoring a Russian red line first announced by Putin in 2008 that Ukraine would not be allowed to become a NATO member.

Here is the chronology of how we got involved in Ukraine starting in 1990.

By my definitions, Vlad the Invader lost his war on Ukraine in March of 2022 and ever since has only been trying to run up his own Russian body counts high enough to make the war worthy of an ignoble defeat. Russians have regained nothing of significance since their decisive defeats in 2022.

Simply not true. Russia has made significant gains in territory since the second invasion in 2022. They are rebuilding Mariupol.

Re Russian losses: The first casualty of war is the truth. What is your source for Russian losses? How many casualties has Ukraine suffered? We are being lied to by the USG and the Ukrainians. It is part of the propaganda spewed in every war by adversaries. Inflate the losses of the enemy and minimize your own. How many times have we been told that Ukraine was winning the war or that it is now a stalemate.

BBC: Ukraine front could 'collapse' as Russia gains accelerate, experts warn

President Biden’s decision to provide anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, and allow the use of long-range missiles on Russian territory comes as the Russian military is accelerating its gains along the front line.

Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that Russia has gained almost six times as much territory in 2024 as it did in 2023, and is advancing towards key Ukrainian logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region is faltering. Russian troops have pushed Kyiv's offensive backwards. Experts have questioned the success of the offensive, with one calling it a "strategic catastrophe" given manpower shortages faced by Ukraine.

That may or may not be true. Nobody today even knows what negotiations will take place or how they will turn out. I fear they will not prove as quick and easy as Pres. Trump hopes for.

It may not be quick or easy given Biden's attempts to Trump-proof the war, but Trump will hold the veto pen when it comes to additional funding for Ukraine and as CIC, the clandestine US participation in the war will be curtailed. Trump has the leverage over Zelensky. Support for the war in Europe and Ukraine has declined significantly. Zelensky will lose if he reopens the election process.

Most of that is pure nonsense. In fact, funding for Ukraine's war comes from roughly as follows:

33% from Ukraine itself

25% from the USA

25% from other NATO allies

17% from non-NATO allies (i.e., Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc.) and NGOs.

LOL. Where is Ukraine coming up with the money to finance 33% of the costs of the war? Its economy is in shambles.

CBS: In Ukraine, U.S. tax dollars are funding more than just military aid We are funding small businesses, 57,000 first responders, seeds and fertilizer for Ukrainian farmers, etc. The war has also impacted Ukraine's financial standing, with the country's economy contracting by an estimated 31% last year, according to the United States Agency for International Development.

To date, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has obligated $22.9 billion of the appropriated funding for direct financial support for the Government of Ukraine's (GOU's) central budget.

The share that the US is paying for the war has been intentionally understated and the European portion exaggerated including pledges of aid that don't materialize. The Kiel Institute has been the locus for much of this misinformation.

So, even if the US withdraws all support for Ukraine, while other allies increase their support by 25% each, then Ukraine could still carry on at roughly the current levels.

Nonsense. The US provides most of the military aid and intelligence. Without US support, Ukraine is dead.

It would not be ideal for Ukraine, but it would also not be the end of Ukrainian resistance either.

The Ukrainian people don't have a suicide wish. Millions have fled the country rather than serve. Corruption is rife as the oligarchs get rich. 80% of the electricity has been cut with winter coming on. How long do we allow this proxy war to continue? If we truly cared about the Ukrainian people, we would have thrown the towel in a long time ago.