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Where Harris Went Wrong
Vanity | 10/9/2024 | Econjack

Posted on 11/09/2024 1:40:01 PM PST by econjack

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To: Rockingham
The post is a personal explanation based on economics but is not a political explanation for Harris's loss.

Very true, and in the first sentence of my post I said that I evaluated both in economic policy terms because that's what I understand better than their political differences. I have a "gut" reaction to her politics, but I don't feel qualified to judge her in that arena other than in my own mind.

41 posted on 11/09/2024 7:39:07 PM PST by econjack
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To: econjack

Leftists’ aren’t capable. Sadly, most of my coworkers are left-leaning, being in health care.

If you were a fly on the wall in that place... You wouldn’t beliece what you hear.

One of the pharmacists, oddly a naval vet in his sixties, said his daughter is now holding off on having a family ecause Trump won. She’s afraid that if she has serious complications, she won’t be able to get, “treatment”, which is just inaccurate. She’s in TN, so the possibility for laws being passed exists. She could always move back to IL, where nothing will change, because it’s UP TO THE STATES. As it should be.

In any case, there are always carve-outs for complications which may be fatal to mom, which means fatal to child. No sense in losing two lives, right? Every abortion law I’ve read has: A) Had those carve-outs; B) Never lays the punishment on the woman, but on the one who performed the abortion; and lastly, Trump never talked about interfering further into abortion law that I can immediately recall.

These people are delusional.


42 posted on 11/09/2024 9:36:25 PM PST by Tacrolimus1mg (Do no harm, but take no sh!t.)
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To: econjack
With decades in law, politics, and campaigns, it is hard for me to see elections except in those terms. I recognize though that economics and gut feelings are the foundation for how most of the electorate views politics. Have you ever seen Ray C. Fair's election prediction model?
43 posted on 11/09/2024 11:07:24 PM PST by Rockingham
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To: Rockingham
I am not familiar with Fair's model. However, his statment:

The US model consists 24 stochastic equations and slightly over 100 identities. There are about 150 exogenous variables and many lagged endogenous variables. The stochastic equations are estimated by two-stage least squares. The data base for the model begins in the first quarter of 1952.

suggests it's fairly complex. The 150 exogenous variables and 100 identities further suggests that a lot of ceteris paribus assumptions are going on. I'd really have to spend some time with the model to assess the sensitivity of the model to those assumptions. Still, it could be interesting reading...thanks for pointing it out to me!

44 posted on 11/10/2024 4:51:32 AM PST by econjack
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To: Tacrolimus1mg

Methinks the daughter is letting politics influence her life far more than is reasonable. What is her evidence of denial of treatment if things take a turn for the worse? I would really press her on the evidence because this sounds like drinking too much Democrat koolaid over the years.


45 posted on 11/10/2024 4:55:22 AM PST by econjack
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To: econjack

My understanding of Fair’s model fails at the first sentence. An economic approach to election modeling though appeals to me based on both the importance of economics and as an explanation of why election results so often seem to move in sync in modern nations. The reason is either economics or astrology, and I know enough to pick economics.


46 posted on 11/10/2024 5:14:01 AM PST by Rockingham
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To: CaliGangsta

That’s exactly right. That’s also what the Democrats should have done during Trump’s first term: dealmaking. Instead, they went scorched-earth trying to take him down and stop him at all costs.

If the Democrats are smart, and I’m not counting on it, they should try to negotiate rather than obstruct the Trump agenda. For example, Trump did prison reform during his first term. That could have easily been a Democrat initiative that earned them political capital that would have come in handy during this year’s election. They squandered this and every opportunity to make deals and find common ground. (The Democrats did engage in the negotiations and ultimately supported the reform, but it took Republicans pushing the legislation forward, which is why Democrats did not get credit as they could have.)

The modern Democrat party has been taken over by the radical left. They think the moderate Trump administration, slightly left-leaning Elon Musk, fairly liberal Joe Rogan, and very left-of-center Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are all “right-wing extremists”. To them, Karl Marx is a moderate. They’re just nuts.


47 posted on 11/10/2024 7:53:14 AM PST by unlearner (Make sure to hydrate, and breathe, and take care of yourself.)
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To: unlearner

If the Democrats are smart, and I’m not counting on it,


There whole platform has been anti trump, they will continue to sell that to their “constituents” and I hope they do.

Anti trump is their identity. eventually more of their “constituents” will see that.


48 posted on 11/10/2024 7:56:25 AM PST by PeterPrinciple (Thinking Caps are no longer being issued but there must be a warehouse full of them somewhere.)
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