[Rockingham]

With decades in law, politics, and campaigns, it is hard for me to see elections except in those terms. I recognize though that economics and gut feelings are the foundation for how most of the electorate views politics. Have you ever seen Ray C. Fair's election prediction model?

[econjack]

I am not familiar with Fair's model. However, his statment:

The US model consists 24 stochastic equations and slightly over 100 identities. There are about 150 exogenous variables and many lagged endogenous variables. The stochastic equations are estimated by two-stage least squares. The data base for the model begins in the first quarter of 1952.

suggests it's fairly complex. The 150 exogenous variables and 100 identities further suggests that a lot of ceteris paribus assumptions are going on. I'd really have to spend some time with the model to assess the sensitivity of the model to those assumptions. Still, it could be interesting reading...thanks for pointing it out to me!