[Right_Wing_Madman]

Am I off base here?

A little bit, I think. You underestimate the appeal of individual candidates. Like it or not, charisma is important in politics. Many people don't like Kari Lake's personality. It's why she always loses elections in Arizona.

[kiryandil]

Allow me to drop a little data on ya:

													Trump			Rogers		slutkin
					Senate								minus			div		div
		Rogers		Slutkin	total				Trump		kamaLOL		Rogers			Trump		kamaLOL
Wayne	31.9%	267,678	63.4%	531,614	799,292		Wayne	33.7%	288,778	62.7%	536,581		21,100		1	93%		99%
Oakland	42.7%	325,715	54.8%	418,362	744,077		Oakland	43.8%	337,592	54.3%	419,121		11,877		2	96%		100%
Macomb	53.3%	265,865	43.6%	217,649	483,514		Macomb	55.9%	284,639	42.2%	214,930		18,774		3	93%		101%
Kent	46.3%	170,335	50.9%	187,411	357,746		Kent	46.5%	172,670	51.8%	192,565		2,335		4	99%		97%
Genesee	44.6%	97,978	52.4%	114,960	212,938		Genesee	47.2%	105,284	51.4%	114,632		7,306		5	93%		100%
Washtenaw	26.6%	58,160	70.4%	154,043	212,203		Washtenaw	26.6%	58,798	71.0%	156,964		638		6	99%		98%
Ottawa	59.5%	107,822	38.2%	69,251	177,073		Ottawa	59.3%	108,231	39.2%	71,573		409		7	100%		97%
Ingham	32.8%	48,069	64.5%	94,603	142,672		Ingham	34.2%	50,552	63.9%	94,464		2,483		8	95%		100%
Kalamazoo	39.8%	56,654	57.1%	81,336	137,990		Kalamazoo	40.1%	57,819	58.2%	83,923		1,165		9	98%		97%
Livingston	59.5%	78,180	38.5%	50,516	128,696		Livingston	61.2%	81,204	37.3%	49,484		3,024		10	96%		102%
Saginaw	48.7%	49,654	48.7%	49,652	99,306		Saginaw	51.0%	52,907	47.7%	49,498		3,253		11	94%		100%
Muskegon	48.1%	43,929	48.6%	44,361	88,290		Muskegon	49.9%	46,358	48.6%	45,172		2,429		12	95%		98%
St. Clair	63.5%	59,996	33.4%	31,509	91,505		St. Clair	66.6%	64,273	31.9%	30,833		4,277		13	93%		102%
Jackson	57.7%	47,543	39.1%	32,182	79,725		Jackson	59.9%	50,178	38.6%	32,327		2,635		14	95%		100%
Monroe	60.8%	54,079	36.4%	32,412	86,491		Monroe	62.9%	57,402	35.7%	32,613		3,323		15	94%		99%
Berrien	53.9%	44,803	43.3%	35,949	80,752		Berrien	53.3%	44,965	45.4%	38,288		162		16	100%		94%
Calhoun	55.8%	34,969	40.7%	25,504	60,473		Calhoun	57.9%	36,982	40.8%	26,078		2,013		17	95%		98%
Allegan	62.5%	41,951	34.7%	23,273	65,224		Allegan	63.6%	43,072	34.9%	23,648		1,121		18	97%		98%
Eaton	48.9%	31,617	48.6%	31,437	63,054		Eaton	50.7%	33,097	47.5%	31,038		1,480		19	96%		101%
Bay	53.4%	32,089	43.7%	26,273	58,362		Bay	56.6%	34,736	42.0%	25,725		2,647		20	92%		102%
Lenawee	60.2%	32,379	36.8%	19,767	52,146		Lenawee	60.8%	33,457	37.8%	20,782		1,078		21	97%		95%
Grand Traverse	49.8%	30,850	47.5%	29,478	60,328		Grand Traverse	50.1%	31,409	48.3%	30,327		559		22	98%		97%
Lapeer	66.6%	35,207	30.7%	16,229	51,436		Lapeer	68.9%	36,982	29.7%	15,921		1,775		23	95%		102%
Midland	55.7%	27,601	41.7%	20,656	48,257		Midland	56.8%	28,567	41.6%	20,916		966		24	97%		99%
Clinton	52.3%	25,899	45.6%	22,589	48,488		Clinton	53.6%	26,748	44.9%	22,439		849		25	97%		101%
Van Buren	55.6%	22,569	41.4%	16,795	39,364		Van Buren	56.9%	23,406	41.7%	17,172		837		26	96%		98%
Shiawassee	58.6%	23,503	38.6%	15,473	38,976		Shiawassee	60.8%	24,716	37.7%	15,331		1,213		27	95%		101%
Montcalm	66.8%	22,942	29.9%	10,265	33,207		Montcalm	68.8%	23,944	29.8%	10,362		1,002		28	96%		99%
Ionia	63.3%	21,237	33.5%	11,253	32,490		Ionia	65.2%	22,175	33.3%	11,338		938		29	96%		99%
Marquette	43.5%	16,340	53.9%	20,250	36,590		Marquette	44.2%	16,849	53.9%	20,564		509		30	97%		98%
Isabella	51.5%	15,564	45.4%	13,720	29,284		Isabella	53.0%	16,315	45.5%	14,003		751		31	95%		98%
Barry	64.6%	24,679	32.2%	12,310	36,989		Barry	66.3%	25,649	32.0%	12,391		970		32	96%		99%
St. Joseph	64.3%	18,544	31.9%	9,194	27,738		St. Joseph	66.1%	19,402	32.2%	9,451		858		33	96%		97%
Tuscola	67.9%	20,503	29.0%	8,749	29,252		Tuscola	70.8%	21,764	27.8%	8,557		1,261		34	94%		102%
Cass	66.1%	18,124	31.3%	8,582	26,706		Cass	66.4%	18,502	32.5%	9,048		378		35	98%		95%
Newaygo	69.1%	19,930	28.0%	8,063	27,993		Newaygo	70.7%	20,627	27.8%	8,129		697		36	97%		99%
Hillsdale	72.9%	17,788	24.3%	5,922	23,710		Hillsdale	75.1%	18,627	23.7%	5,873		839		37	95%		101%
Branch	68.2%	14,181	28.5%	5,922	20,103		Branch	70.4%	14,847	28.0%	5,910		666		38	96%		100%
Gratiot	62.9%	12,279	34.1%	6,645	18,924		Gratiot	65.0%	12,892	33.7%	6,679		613		39	95%		99%
Sanilac	70.8%	16,306	26.3%	6,053	22,359		Sanilac	73.2%	17,080	25.5%	5,954		774		40	95%		102%
Mecosta	60.1%	13,949	32.2%	7,463	21,412		Mecosta	64.1%	14,444	34.1%	7,689		495		41	97%		97%
Houghton	57.4%	10,990	39.9%	7,637	18,627		Houghton	57.7%	11,178	40.6%	7,868		188		42	98%		97%
Delta	63.3%	13,600	34.1%	7,314	20,914		Delta	64.5%	14,108	34.1%	7,460		508		43	96%		98%
Chippewa	59.7%	10,749	37.1%	6,690	17,439		Chippewa	61.3%	11,248	37.0%	6,796		499		44	96%		98%
Emmet	54.3%	12,296	43.1%	9,760	22,056		Emmet	54.6%	12,461	43.8%	9,995		165		45	99%		98%
Wexford	64.7%	12,457	31.5%	6,062	18,519		Wexford	66.5%	12,968	31.9%	6,223		511		46	96%		97%
Huron	67.4%	12,510	29.8%	5,540	18,050		Huron	69.7%	13,225	29.1%	5,521		715		47	95%		100%
Clare	65.6%	11,140	31.1%	5,288	16,428		Clare	68.1%	11,766	30.5%	5,276		626		48	95%		100%
Mason	59.4%	10,613	37.7%	6,735	17,348		Mason	60.0%	10,830	38.6%	6,969		217		49	98%		97%
Alpena	62.6%	10,564	34.5%	5,825	16,389		Alpena	63.7%	10,965	35.1%	6,036		401		50	96%		97%
Oceana	62.6%	9,168	34.6%	5,064	14,232		Oceana	64.1%	9,547	34.2%	5,083		379		51	96%		100%
Charlevoix	57.1%	9,930	40.1%	6,976	16,906		Charlevoix	57.6%	10,183	40.7%	7,194		253		52	98%		97%
Dickinson	66.6%	10,075	30.8%	4,662	14,737		Dickinson	67.3%	10,324	31.0%	4,761		249		53	98%		98%
Cheboygan	63.5%	10,256	33.7%	5,441	15,697		Cheboygan	64.9%	10,650	33.7%	5,539		394		54	96%		98%
Gladwin	67.4%	10,239	29.9%	4,537	14,776		Gladwin	69.8%	10,809	29.1%	4,501		570		55	95%		101%
Iosco	61.8%	9,544	34.9%	5,400	14,944		Iosco	64.2%	10,153	33.8%	5,342		609		56	94%		101%
Manistee	54.9%	8,381	42.0%	6,402	14,783		Manistee	55.9%	8,627	42.4%	6,541		246		57	97%		98%
Otsego	66.3%	10,008	30.9%	4,674	14,682		Otsego	67.7%	10,371	30.9%	4,740		363		58	96%		99%
Antrim	60.6%	10,135	36.9%	6,176	16,311		Antrim	61.3%	10,340	37.5%	6,328		205		59	98%		98%
Roscommon	63.8%	10,114	33.2%	5,254	15,368		Roscommon	65.9%	10,581	32.9%	5,290		467		60	96%		99%
Menominee	65.6%	8,330	31.8%	4,038	12,368		Menominee	66.2%	8,645	32.6%	4,252		315		61	96%		95%
Osceola	71.4%	9,291	25.2%	3,281	12,572		Osceola	73.1%	9,639	25.2%	3,326		348		62	96%		99%
Leelanau	41.9%	6,465	53.0%	8,181	14,646		Leelanau	40.3%	6,392	53.0%	8,407		-73		63	101%		97%
Ogemaw	67.5%	8,312	29.9%	3,684	11,996		Ogemaw	70.4%	8,879	28.3%	3,578		567		64	94%		103%
Benzie	52.9%	6,737	44.4%	5,646	12,383		Benzie	53.7%	6,890	45.0%	5,767		153		65	98%		98%
Kalkaska	68.6%	7,757	27.8%	3,145	10,902		Kalkaska	70.7%	8,149	27.8%	3,206		392		66	95%		98%
Missaukee	75.7%	6,828	21.4%	1,934	8,762		Missaukee	77.2%	7,066	21.3%	1,945		238		67	97%		99%
Arenac	66.1%	5,973	30.8%	2,782	8,755		Arenac	70.1%	6,508	28.6%	2,658		535		68	92%		105%
Gogebic	55.8%	4,056	40.9%	2,972	7,028		Gogebic	57.0%	4,274	41.4%	3,106		218		69	95%		96%
Crawford	64.3%	5,360	32.3%	2,695	8,055		Crawford	66.2%	5,631	32.3%	2,751		271		70	95%		98%
Presque Isle	62.7%	5,393	34.7%	2,989	8,382		Presque Isle	63.7%	5,569	34.7%	3,033		176		71	97%		99%
Lake	62.9%	4,257	33.2%	2,250	6,507		Lake	65.4%	4,523	33.2%	2,298		266		72	94%		98%
Iron	62.6%	4,328	34.8%	2,404	6,732		Iron	64.0%	4,501	34.7%	2,441		173		73	96%		98%
Mackinac	60.9%	4,326	36.7%	2,611	6,937		Mackinac	61.8%	4,476	36.9%	2,673		150		74	97%		98%
Alcona	68.2%	5,047	28.8%	2,133	7,180		Alcona	70.3%	5,255	28.6%	2,140		208		75	96%		100%
Montmorency	71.0%	4,454	26.4%	1,653	6,107		Montmorency	72.0%	4,599	26.6%	1,700		145		76	97%		97%
Alger	58.1%	3,002	39.6%	2,047	5,049		Alger	59.2%	3,116	39.4%	2,075		114		77	96%		99%
Oscoda	69.0%	3,500	27.4%	1,388	4,888		Oscoda	71.6%	3,716	27.2%	1,414		216		78	94%		98%
Baraga	63.5%	2,697	34.6%	1,468	4,165		Baraga	64.1%	2,778	34.4%	1,488		81		79	97%		99%
Schoolcraft	63.2%	3,032	34.0%	1,630	4,662		Schoolcraft	65.9%	3,295	32.7%	1,632		263		80	92%		100%
Ontonagon	63.2%	2,387	33.8%	1,279	3,666		Ontonagon	64.5%	2,479	34.2%	1,313		92		81	96%		97%
Luce	71.1%	2,096	26.2%	771	2,867		Luce	72.7%	2,170	25.8%	769		74		82	97%		100%
Keweenaw	55.7%	882	41.9%	664	1,546		Keweenaw	55.7%	896	42.8%	689		14		83	98%		96%
		2,684,739		2,704,757	5,389,496				2,807,719		2,728,417

[kiryandil]

sorted by county population - population rank on the right, just after “Trump minus Rogers” column.

[kiryandil]

You can copy and paste that post into a spreadsheet.

[dadfly]

bookmark.

[MountainWalker]

It’s maddening, but there are a lot of ticket splitters for reasons we can’t comprehend. Ohio has been a red state for a while and look at how long it took to finally get rid of Brown - better example is Tester in Montana. Ridiculous that they were in the Senate this long.

[guitar Josh]

So your theory is they stole the election for Slotkin but not for Harris?

[thinden]

right on.

good theory

[joe fonebone]

Mike Rogers is a never trumper who was run out of congress by his own voters.
He is the picture postcard of bush league chamber of commerce worshiping republiCAN’Ts...
I had to choke on my own vomit to cast a ballot for him.

[Chewbarkah]

Trial balloon of an explanation: black males who liked Trump as an individual voted for him, but “undervoted” some, or the rest of, the ballot. Liking the rather un-Republican Trump does not imply sudden loyalty to the Republican Party.

[cowboyusa]

He’s Deep State anyway.